New Mexico Lobos at Santa Clara Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 10:00 PM ETLeavey Center · at Santa Clara

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: New Mexico and Santa Clara
UNM	This season	SCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNM 79–78 · win probability UNM 52%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

UNM 4, SCU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNMBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNM 35.8, SCU 25.5. Allowed: UNM 33.3, SCU 38.2

UNMSmall

Three-pointers

UNM hits 35.6% and allows 30.5%; SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 41.9% and 45.0% of their shots

UNMSmall

UNM offense vs SCU defense

Offense 72nd of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings

SCUSmall

Home court

SCU at home. This season: SCU 0-0 at home, UNM 0-0 away

UNMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNM 53.5 and allows 49.5; SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNM 30.6%, SCU 36.4%. Defensive: UNM 72.3%, SCU 67.9%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UNM plays 70.7 a game (87th fastest), SCU 69.7 (135th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

UNM has played the 97th-hardest schedule, SCU the 86th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

SCU offense vs UNM defense

Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 103rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNM 14.9%, SCU 15.3%. Forced: UNM 19.0%, SCU 20.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNM 42%, SCU 42%. Transfers in: UNM 3, SCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNM -0.5	—
Total	—	156.9	—
Projected score	—	UNM 78.7 · SCU 78.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNM -0.4	—
1H total	73.3	—
1H projected score	UNM 36.9 · SCU 36.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WWWWL	20-16	56%	7-5	—
SCU WLWLL	18-16	53%	9-5	—

Venue/role: UNM away; SCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM UOUUU	23-13	64%	25-11
SCU OUUUO	19-15	56%	25-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SCU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Mexico

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ WICH	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs MVSU	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs USU	L90–94WO

Santa Clara

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	vs VCU	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs ILST	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs NEV	W98–83WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNM 2–0 SCUUNM leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · UNM has won the last 2 meetings · UNM 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	SCU 71 @ UNM 98	UNM -1.5	UNM W
Dec 9, 2023-24	SCU 76 vs UNM 93	UNM -9.5	UNM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

New Mexico

36 games played

Straight up

25-11

69% wins

Against the spread

20-16

56% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

23-13

64% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1169%

W W W L L W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L L W W W L W L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1656%

L W L L L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L W L L L W W L L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

23-1364%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U O O O O O O U O U O U O O U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsETAM	W 76-54	-22.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 8	vsUTA	W 74-56	-13.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsUCR	W 82-68	-19.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	@NMSU	L 68-76	-3.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 20	vsNEB	L 72-84	+8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsMSST	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 26	vsALST	W 93-87	-19.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 180
Dec 6	vsSCU	W 98-71	-1.5	W +25.5	153.5	O 169
Dec 10	@VCU	W 81-78	+8.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 159
Dec 14	vsFGCU	W 75-59	-15.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 134
Dec 20	vsSJSU	W 88-65	-16.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	@BOIS	L 53-62	+5.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 115
Jan 3	vsWYO	W 78-58	-7.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 6	@CSU	W 80-70	-1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 10	@AF	W 91-49	-16.5	W +25.5	138.5	O 140
Jan 13	vsGCU	W 87-64	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 17	@SDSU	L 79-83	+5.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 21	vsFRES	W 83-74	-15.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsNEV	W 80-73	-8.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	@UNLV	W 89-61	-3.5	W +24.5	155.5	U 150
Jan 31	@SJSU	W 90-80	-15.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 4	vsUSU	L 66-86	-1.5	L −21.5	156.5	U 152
Feb 7	vsBOIS	L 90-91	-4.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 11	@GCU	W 70-64	+1.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 134
Feb 17	vsAF	W 98-61	-28.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 159
Feb 21	@FRES	W 80-78	-9.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 158
Feb 24	@NEV	L 60-67	+1.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	vsSDSU	W 81-76	-1.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 4	vsCSU	L 74-82	-8.5	L −16.5	150.5	O 156
Mar 7	@USU	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 184
Mar 12	vsSJSU	W 93-77	-16.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsSDSU	L 62-64	+2.5	W +0.5	150.5	U 126
Mar 18	vsSHSU	W 107-83	-11.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 190
Mar 22	vsGW	W 86-61	-6.5	W +18.5	161.5	U 147
Mar 24	vsJOES	W 84-69	-10.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 153
Apr 2	vsTLSA	L 69-74	-2.5	L −7.5	161.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−0.5

UTA

W 74-56

+4.5

UCR

W 82-68

−5.5

NMSU

L 68-76

−11.5

NEB

L 72-84

−3.5

MSST

W 80-78

+8.5

ALST

W 93-87

−13.5

SCU

W 98-71

+25.5

VCU

W 81-78

+11.5

FGCU

W 75-59

+0.5

SJSU

W 88-65

+6.5

BOIS

L 53-62

−3.5

WYO

W 78-58

+12.5

CSU

W 80-70

+8.5

W 91-49

+25.5

GCU

W 87-64

+16.5

SDSU

L 79-83

+1.5

FRES

W 83-74

−6.5

NEV

W 80-73

−1.5

UNLV

W 89-61

+24.5

SJSU

W 90-80

−5.5

USU

L 66-86

−21.5

BOIS

L 90-91

−5.5

GCU

W 70-64

+7.5

W 98-61

+8.5

FRES

W 80-78

−7.5

NEV

L 60-67

−5.5

SDSU

W 81-76

+3.5

CSU

L 74-82

−16.5

USU

L 90-94

+3.5

SJSU

W 93-77

−0.5

SDSU

L 62-64

+0.5

SHSU

W 107-83

+12.5

W 86-61

+18.5

JOES

W 84-69

+4.5

TLSA

L 69-74

−7.5

covered 20didn’t cover 16avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−13.5

UTA

W 74-56

−15.5

UCR

W 82-68

+8.5

NMSU

L 68-76

+4.5

NEB

L 72-84

+4.5

MSST

W 80-78

+6.5

ALST

W 93-87

+31.5

SCU

W 98-71

+15.5

VCU

W 81-78

+1.5

FGCU

W 75-59

−25.5

SJSU

W 88-65

+0.5

BOIS

L 53-62

−31.5

WYO

W 78-58

−15.5

CSU

W 80-70

+6.5

W 91-49

+1.5

GCU

W 87-64

+4.5

SDSU

L 79-83

+13.5

FRES

W 83-74

+5.5

NEV

W 80-73

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-61

−5.5

SJSU

W 90-80

+21.5

USU

L 66-86

−4.5

BOIS

L 90-91

+28.5

GCU

W 70-64

−14.5

W 98-61

+10.5

FRES

W 80-78

+1.5

NEV

L 60-67

−21.5

SDSU

W 81-76

+6.5

CSU

L 74-82

+5.5

USU

L 90-94

+28.5

SJSU

W 93-77

+15.5

SDSU

L 62-64

−24.5

SHSU

W 107-83

+27.5

W 86-61

−14.5

JOES

W 84-69

−2.5

TLSA

L 69-74

−18.5

over 23under 13avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Clara

34 games played

Straight up

25-9

74% wins

Against the spread

18-16

53% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-974%

W W W W W L W W L L W L W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1653%

W W W L W W W L L L L L W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1556%

U U O U U U O O O O U O O O U O O O U U U O O U O O O O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsMCN	W 79-67	-6.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 10	@XAV	W 87-68	+3.5	W +22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 15	vsNEV	W 98-83	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsIDST	W 64-55	-14.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 21	vsUL	W 80-43	-19.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 27	vsSLU	L 70-71	+1.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsMINN	W 86-75	-5.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsUTU	W 90-80	-20.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 170
Dec 6	@UNM	L 71-98	+1.5	L −25.5	153.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsASU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Dec 17	vsUNT	W 63-60	-12.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 20	vsLUC	L 78-80	-15.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 28	@ORST	W 102-64	-7.5	W +30.5	150.5	O 166
Dec 30	@PORT	W 92-85	-13.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 177
Jan 2	vsPEPP	W 82-63	-20.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsUSD	W 98-70	-17.5	W +10.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 8	@GONZ	L 77-89	+17.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 10	vsLMU	W 103-72	-11.5	W +19.5	153.5	O 175
Jan 14	vsPAC	W 85-69	-12.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 17	vsSMC	W 62-54	-1.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 116
Jan 24	@USD	W 85-73	-13.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 28	vsSF	W 88-73	-9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 31	@LMU	W 104-73	-8.5	W +22.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 4	@PAC	W 71-56	-6.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 127
Feb 7	@WSU	W 96-92	-8.5	L −4.5	160.5	O 188
Feb 11	vsSEA	W 84-72	-12.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 14	vsGONZ	L 86-94	+4.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 21	@SF	W 94-73	-6.5	W +14.5	158.5	O 167
Feb 25	@SMC	L 67-86	+5.5	L −13.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 28	vsORST	W 93-72	-15.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 165
Mar 8	vsPAC	W 76-68	-9.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 144
Mar 9	vsSMC	W 76-71	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 10	vsGONZ	L 68-79	+8.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 20	vsUK	L 84-89	+3.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

+5.5

XAV

W 87-68

+22.5

NEV

W 98-83

+8.5

IDST

W 64-55

−5.5

W 80-43

+17.5

SLU

L 70-71

+0.5

MINN

W 86-75

+5.5

UTU

W 90-80

−10.5

UNM

L 71-98

−25.5

ASU

L 79-82

−4.5

UNT

W 63-60

−9.5

LUC

L 78-80

−17.5

ORST

W 102-64

+30.5

PORT

W 92-85

−6.5

PEPP

W 82-63

−1.5

USD

W 98-70

+10.5

GONZ

L 77-89

+5.5

LMU

W 103-72

+19.5

PAC

W 85-69

+3.5

SMC

W 62-54

+6.5

USD

W 85-73

−1.5

W 88-73

+5.5

LMU

W 104-73

+22.5

PAC

W 71-56

+8.5

WSU

W 96-92

−4.5

SEA

W 84-72

−0.5

GONZ

L 86-94

−3.5

W 94-73

+14.5

SMC

L 67-86

−13.5

ORST

W 93-72

+5.5

PAC

W 76-68

−1.5

SMC

W 76-71

+9.5

GONZ

L 68-79

−2.5

L 84-89

−1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

−5.5

XAV

W 87-68

−0.5

NEV

W 98-83

+36.5

IDST

W 64-55

−22.5

W 80-43

−17.5

SLU

L 70-71

−17.5

MINN

W 86-75

+22.5

UTU

W 90-80

+25.5

UNM

L 71-98

+15.5

ASU

L 79-82

+6.5

UNT

W 63-60

−16.5

LUC

L 78-80

+6.5

ORST

W 102-64

+15.5

PORT

W 92-85

+19.5

PEPP

W 82-63

−5.5

USD

W 98-70

+6.5

GONZ

L 77-89

+2.5

LMU

W 103-72

+21.5

PAC

W 85-69

−0.5

SMC

W 62-54

−36.5

USD

W 85-73

−4.5

W 88-73

+10.5

LMU

W 104-73

+23.5

PAC

W 71-56

−24.5

WSU

W 96-92

+27.5

SEA

W 84-72

+8.5

GONZ

L 86-94

+21.5

W 94-73

+8.5

SMC

L 67-86

−0.5

ORST

W 93-72

+11.5

PAC

W 76-68

−4.5

SMC

W 76-71

−3.5

GONZ

L 68-79

−10.5

L 84-89

+15.5

over 19under 15avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

New Mexico has the better starters

Position by position: New Mexico 4, Santa Clara 0, even 1

New MexicoBetterSanta Clara

G J. Hall16.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90

UNMBig

G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53

G U. Tenette10.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73

UNMSmall

G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41

G C. Howell6 pts · 3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 54

Even

G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61

G H. Mayes TR11.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 93

UNMBig

G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

F T. Vahlberg Fasasi TR12.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72

UNMSmall

G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56

New MexicoBetterSanta Clara

UNM offense72nd of 366 · +1.6

UNMSmall

SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8

UNM defense103rd of 366 · -0.9

Even

SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4

Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players

UNMBig

Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players

Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench+0.9 · 1 player

UNMSmall

Bench-0.2 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUNM betterSCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

New Mexico

Guards

J. Hall31 minU. Tenette28 minC. Howell25 minH. Mayes24 min · TRD. HallNew

Forwards

T. Vahlberg Fasasi27 min · TRR. Petraitis17 min · TRF. GraniNewI. SuljanovicNewN. MuriithiNewB. SchuchNew

Santa Clara

Guards

J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min

Forwards

C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew

Centers

F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNM80.8 #52

SCU82.9 #30

Points per possession

UNM1.14 #70

SCU1.18 #37

Pace (possessions)

UNM70.7 #87

SCU69.7 #135

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNM53.5 #82

SCU54.5 #53

3-point %

UNM35.6 #83

SCU34.9 #125

3-point attempt rate

UNM41.9 #136

SCU45.0 #67

Free throw rate

UNM35.8 #160

SCU25.5 #363

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNM14.9 #59

SCU15.3 #86

Offensive rebound rate

UNM30.6 #176

SCU36.4 #20

Assists per game

UNM14.8 #104

SCU16.6 #33

Defense

Points allowed

UNM71.6 #96

SCU73.5 #141

Points allowed per possession

UNM1.01 #36

SCU1.06 #117

Opponent effective FG%

UNM49.5 #84

SCU52.0 #213

Opponent 3-point %

UNM30.5 #20

SCU33.1 #127

Turnovers forced

UNM19.0 #50

SCU20.1 #20

Defensive rebound rate

UNM72.3 #57

SCU67.9 #262

Steals per game

UNM7.9 #43

SCU8.7 #14

Blocks per game

UNM2.7 #274

SCU3.6 #125

UNM		SCU
Scoring
80.8 #52	Points per game	82.9 #30
1.14 #70	Points per possession	1.18 #37
70.7 #87	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #135
Shooting
53.5 #82	Effective FG%	54.5 #53
35.6 #83	3-point %	34.9 #125
41.9 #136	3-point attempt rate	45.0 #67
35.8 #160	Free throw rate	25.5 #363
Possessions
14.9 #59	Turnover rate	15.3 #86
30.6 #176	Offensive rebound rate	36.4 #20
14.8 #104	Assists per game	16.6 #33
Defense
71.6 #96	Points allowed	73.5 #141
1.01 #36	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #117
49.5 #84	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #213
30.5 #20	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #127
19.0 #50	Turnovers forced	20.1 #20
72.3 #57	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #262
7.9 #43	Steals per game	8.7 #14
2.7 #274	Blocks per game	3.6 #125

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

New Mexico

25-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulsa69–74
Wvs Saint Joseph's84–69
Wvs G Washington86–61
Wvs Sam Houston107–83
Lvs San Diego St62–64

A week or more of rest.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kentucky84–89
Lvs Gonzaga68–79
Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
Wvs Pacific76–68
Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico Lobos at Santa Clara Broncos

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

New Mexico

Santa Clara

New Mexico has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

New Mexico

Santa Clara