Utah Valley Wolverines at Nevada Wolf Pack: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 10:00 PM ETLawlor Events Center · at Nevada

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Utah Valley and Nevada
UVU	This season	NEV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEV 79–69 · win probability NEV 80%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

UVU 1, NEV 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

UVU has played the 254th-hardest schedule, NEV the 94th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UVUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UVU 55.0 and allows 49.4; NEV 50.0 and allows 51.1

NEVSmall

Three-pointers

UVU hits 34.0% and allows 35.2%; NEV hits 35.8% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 32.9% and 32.3% of their shots

NEVSmall

UVU offense vs NEV defense

Offense 161st of 366 against a defense 73rd, on the model’s ratings

NEVSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UVU 20.1%, NEV 14.8%. Forced: UVU 21.3%, NEV 17.0%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: UVU plays 70.2 a game (104th fastest), NEV 67.7 (243rd). Faster games mean more points

NEVSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UVU 34.8%, NEV 32.2%. Defensive: UVU 68.7%, NEV 73.1%

NEVSmall

Home court

NEV at home. This season: NEV 0-0 at home, UVU 0-0 away

NEVSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UVU 38.2, NEV 44.8. Allowed: UVU 39.1, NEV 38.9

NEVSmall

NEV offense vs UVU defense

Offense 104th of 366 against a defense 152nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UVU 44%, NEV 38%. Transfers in: UVU 3, NEV 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEV -9.8	—
Total	—	147.5	—
Projected score	—	UVU 68.9 · NEV 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEV -5.7	—
1H total	69.0	—
1H projected score	UVU 31.7 · NEV 37.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVU LLLLL	13-18	42%	4-9	—
NEV WLWWW	22-15	59%	12-7	—

Venue/role: UVU away; NEV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVU OOUUO	17-14	55%	22-9
NEV OUOUU	20-17	54%	24-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVU	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
NEV	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Utah Valley

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs SJSU	No recent meeting
Dec 3	@ LBSU	W88–78WO
Dec 5	vs SAC	No recent meeting

Nevada

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs IDHO	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs SF	W81–65WO
Nov 24	vs SCU	L83–98LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Utah Valley

31 games played

Straight up

22-9

71% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-971%

L L W W W L W W W W W W L W W W L L W W W L W W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L L W W W L W L W W L W L L W W L L W L W L W W L L L L L L L

7 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O U U U O O U O U O O O O O U O U U U O U U O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@BOIS	L 77-101	+12.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 178
Nov 15	@FRES	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUCI	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 25	vsSDST	W 75-52	-1.5	W +21.5	151.5	U 127
Nov 26	vsSAM	W 89-45	-7.5	W +36.5	148.5	U 134
Dec 3	@SDSU	L 66-77	+8.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 6	@BGSU	W 82-71	-1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 153
Dec 10	vsIDST	W 73-69	-9.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 142
Dec 13	vsUCSB	W 68-53	-5.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 121
Dec 17	vsWEB	W 90-74	-15.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 29	vsCBU	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 1	@TAR	W 91-85	-5.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 176
Jan 3	@ACU	L 68-85	-7.5	L −24.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 8	vsSUU	W 89-72	-18.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 161
Jan 10	vsUTU	W 92-76	-13.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 168
Jan 17	vsUTA	W 86-74	-11.5	W +0.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 21	@SUU	L 70-84	-12.5	L −26.5	160.5	U 154
Jan 24	@CBU	L 71-78	+1.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 29	@TAR	W 83-55	-6.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 138
Feb 5	vsACU	W 68-55	-14.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 123
Feb 7	vsUTA	W 81-60	-12.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 12	@UTU	L 77-81	-9.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 19	vsCBU	W 65-46	-8.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 111
Feb 21	@UTA	W 66-54	-6.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 26	vsTAR	W 79-72	-17.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsACU	W 74-67	-14.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 141
Mar 5	@SUU	W 92-88	-9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 180
Mar 7	@UTU	W 104-101	-8.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 205
Mar 13	vsUTA	W 67-65	-8.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 132
Mar 14	vsCBU	L 61-63	-2.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 18	vsGW	L 78-79	-1.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOIS

L 77-101

−11.5

FRES

L 74-75

−5.5

UCI

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

W 75-52

+21.5

SAM

W 89-45

+36.5

SDSU

L 66-77

−2.5

BGSU

W 82-71

+9.5

IDST

W 73-69

−5.5

UCSB

W 68-53

+9.5

WEB

W 90-74

+0.5

CBU

W 73-66

−0.5

TAR

W 91-85

+0.5

ACU

L 68-85

−24.5

SUU

W 89-72

−1.5

UTU

W 92-76

+2.5

UTA

W 86-74

+0.5

SUU

L 70-84

−26.5

CBU

L 71-78

−5.5

TAR

W 83-55

+21.5

ACU

W 68-55

−1.5

UTA

W 81-60

+8.5

UTU

L 77-81

−13.5

CBU

W 65-46

+10.5

UTA

W 66-54

+5.5

TAR

W 79-72

−10.5

ACU

W 74-67

−7.5

SUU

W 92-88

−5.5

UTU

W 104-101

−5.5

UTA

W 67-65

−6.5

CBU

L 61-63

−4.5

L 78-79

−2.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOIS

L 77-101

+26.5

FRES

L 74-75

−7.5

UCI

W 79-72

+1.5

SDST

W 75-52

−24.5

SAM

W 89-45

−14.5

SDSU

L 66-77

−1.5

BGSU

W 82-71

+8.5

IDST

W 73-69

+0.5

UCSB

W 68-53

−25.5

WEB

W 90-74

+15.5

CBU

W 73-66

−9.5

TAR

W 91-85

+31.5

ACU

L 68-85

+13.5

SUU

W 89-72

+6.5

UTU

W 92-76

+18.5

UTA

W 86-74

+16.5

SUU

L 70-84

−6.5

CBU

L 71-78

+1.5

TAR

W 83-55

−16.5

ACU

W 68-55

−22.5

UTA

W 81-60

−0.5

UTU

L 77-81

+9.5

CBU

W 65-46

−31.5

UTA

W 66-54

−17.5

TAR

W 79-72

+9.5

ACU

W 74-67

+0.5

SUU

W 92-88

+29.5

UTU

W 104-101

+57.5

UTA

W 67-65

−4.5

CBU

L 61-63

−15.5

L 78-79

+4.5

over 17under 14avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nevada

37 games played

Straight up

24-13

65% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-17

54% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1365%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W L W L W W L W W L W L L W W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W W W W L L L W W L L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1754%

U O O O O U O O U U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U U O O U O O U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 15	@SCU	L 83-98	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsUCD	L 71-75	-12.5	L −16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 22	vsUCSB	W 77-64	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 27	vsWASH	L 66-83	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsSF	W 81-65	+5.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 2	vsUCSD	W 76-70	-5.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 7	@WSU	W 78-64	+2.5	W +16.5	145.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsDUQ	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 153
Dec 20	vsBOIS	W 81-66	+3.5	W +18.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 30	@CSU	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@FRES	W 66-65	-4.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 6	vsSDSU	L 68-73	-1.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsWYO	W 92-83	-3.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 175
Jan 14	@USU	L 62-71	+13.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 17	@AF	W 81-66	-14.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 20	vsSJSU	W 87-54	-16.5	W +16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@UNM	L 73-80	+8.5	W +1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsGCU	W 66-60	-3.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 126
Jan 30	vsUNLV	W 89-76	-7.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 165
Feb 3	@BOIS	L 87-91	+6.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 178
Feb 7	vsFRES	W 69-59	-11.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 14	@SDSU	L 57-71	+7.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 128
Feb 17	@SJSU	L 71-87	-10.5	L −26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsUSU	W 80-77	+5.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsUNM	W 67-60	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	@UNLV	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 168
Mar 3	@WYO	L 73-83	-1.5	L −11.5	143.5	O 156
Mar 7	vsAF	W 74-59	-24.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsAF	W 80-45	-19.5	W +15.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 12	vsGCU	W 84-80	+3.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 164
Mar 13	vsUSU	L 66-79	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 18	vsMUR	W 89-75	-8.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 164
Mar 21	vsLIB	W 73-63	-7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Mar 25	@AUB	L 69-75	+8.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

SCU

L 83-98

−8.5

UCD

L 71-75

−16.5

UCSB

W 77-64

+7.5

WASH

L 66-83

−13.5

W 81-65

+21.5

UCSD

W 76-70

+0.5

WSU

W 78-64

+16.5

DUQ

W 78-75

−2.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+18.5

CSU

W 75-62

+14.5

FRES

W 66-65

−3.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−6.5

WYO

W 92-83

+5.5

USU

L 62-71

+4.5

W 81-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+16.5

UNM

L 73-80

+1.5

GCU

W 66-60

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+5.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+2.5

FRES

W 69-59

−1.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−6.5

SJSU

L 71-87

−26.5

USU

W 80-77

+8.5

UNM

W 67-60

+5.5

UNLV

L 83-85

−3.5

WYO

L 73-83

−11.5

W 74-59

−9.5

W 80-45

+15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+7.5

USU

L 66-79

−6.5

MUR

W 89-75

+5.5

LIB

W 73-63

+2.5

AUB

L 69-75

+2.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

SCU

L 83-98

+36.5

UCD

L 71-75

+2.5

UCSB

W 77-64

−6.5

WASH

L 66-83

+3.5

W 81-65

+3.5

UCSD

W 76-70

−3.5

WSU

W 78-64

−3.5

DUQ

W 78-75

+1.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+5.5

CSU

W 75-62

−2.5

FRES

W 66-65

−15.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−0.5

WYO

W 92-83

+31.5

USU

L 62-71

−14.5

W 81-66

+12.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+3.5

UNM

L 73-80

+2.5

GCU

W 66-60

−17.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+17.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+36.5

FRES

W 69-59

−21.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−11.5

SJSU

L 71-87

+16.5

USU

W 80-77

+10.5

UNM

W 67-60

−21.5

UNLV

L 83-85

+17.5

WYO

L 73-83

+12.5

W 74-59

−11.5

W 80-45

−15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+26.5

USU

L 66-79

−0.5

MUR

W 89-75

+4.5

LIB

W 73-63

−10.5

AUB

L 69-75

−7.5

over 20under 17avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nevada has the better starters

Position by position: Utah Valley 0, Nevada 3, even 2

Utah ValleyBetterNevada

G T. Davis TR7.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

NEVBig

G S. Phipps TR13.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 77

G B. Housley4.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 5

NEVBig

G K. Kensie TR10.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 54

G S. Weatherspoon4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

NEVBig

G P. Bandelj TR12.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 57

F I. Davis10.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83

Even

G V. Weems10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84

F I. Hawkins7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 94

Even

F E. Price12.8 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 91

Utah ValleyBetterNevada

UVU offense161st of 366 · -4.8

NEVSmall

NEV defense73rd of 366 · +0.7

UVU defense152nd of 366 · -3.3

Even

NEV offense104th of 366 · -1.4

Backcourt-6.7 · 3 players

NEVBig

Backcourt+2.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+3.4 · 1 player

Bench-0.6 · 4 players

Even

Bench-1.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestUVU betterNEV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Utah Valley

Guards

T. Davis27 min · TRB. Housley26 minS. Weatherspoon16 minD. Nelson8 min · TRJ. Barnes5 min · TRM. BabraitisNew

Forwards

I. Davis19 minI. Hawkins14 minT. Weaver8 minT. Medaris5 minO. MowafakNewD. DengNew

Nevada

Guards

S. Phipps34 min · TRK. Kensie31 min · TRP. Bandelj31 min · TRV. Weems25 minP. White14 minM. Walker8 min

Forwards

E. Price30 minH. LucasNewK. SnyderNew

Centers

S. Majok12 min · TRC. Lath4 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UVU77.7 #101

NEV76.0 #141

Points per possession

UVU1.11 #126

NEV1.12 #96

Pace (possessions)

UVU70.2 #104

NEV67.7 #243

Shooting

Effective FG%

UVU55.0 #38

NEV50.0 #236

3-point %

UVU34.0 #170

NEV35.8 #70

3-point attempt rate

UVU32.9 #317

NEV32.3 #326

Free throw rate

UVU38.2 #98

NEV44.8 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

UVU20.1 #349

NEV14.8 #56

Offensive rebound rate

UVU34.8 #51

NEV32.2 #119

Assists per game

UVU17.5 #14

NEV14.5 #119

Defense

Points allowed

UVU70.8 #72

NEV71.5 #92

Points allowed per possession

UVU1.01 #32

NEV1.06 #101

Opponent effective FG%

UVU49.4 #78

NEV51.1 #166

Opponent 3-point %

UVU35.2 #260

NEV33.7 #168

Turnovers forced

UVU21.3 #7

NEV17.0 #150

Defensive rebound rate

UVU68.7 #221

NEV73.1 #33

Steals per game

UVU9.3 #6

NEV6.6 #168

Blocks per game

UVU5.1 #14

NEV3.8 #106

UVU		NEV
Scoring
77.7 #101	Points per game	76.0 #141
1.11 #126	Points per possession	1.12 #96
70.2 #104	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #243
Shooting
55.0 #38	Effective FG%	50.0 #236
34.0 #170	3-point %	35.8 #70
32.9 #317	3-point attempt rate	32.3 #326
38.2 #98	Free throw rate	44.8 #6
Possessions
20.1 #349	Turnover rate	14.8 #56
34.8 #51	Offensive rebound rate	32.2 #119
17.5 #14	Assists per game	14.5 #119
Defense
70.8 #72	Points allowed	71.5 #92
1.01 #32	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #101
49.4 #78	Opponent effective FG%	51.1 #166
35.2 #260	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #168
21.3 #7	Turnovers forced	17.0 #150
68.7 #221	Defensive rebound rate	73.1 #33
9.3 #6	Steals per game	6.6 #168
5.1 #14	Blocks per game	3.8 #106

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Utah Valley

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs G Washington78–79
Lvs CA Baptist61–63
Wvs UT Arlington67–65
W@ Utah Tech104–101
W@ Southern Utah92–88

A week or more of rest.

Nevada

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Auburn69–75
Wvs Liberty73–63
Wvs Murray St89–75
Lvs Utah State66–79
Wvs Grand Canyon84–80

A week or more of rest.

Utah Valley Wolverines at Nevada Wolf Pack

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Utah Valley

Nevada

Nevada has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Utah Valley

Nevada