1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. OAK @ BOIS
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Boise State Broncos

ExtraMile Arena · at Boise St
#204OAKOakland
@
#86BOISBoise St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OAKThis seasonBOIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOIS 84–69 · win probability BOIS 91%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 153.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOIS has more of the edges

OAK 1, BOIS 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BOISBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OAK 31.3%, BOIS 33.2%. Defensive: OAK 65.6%, BOIS 76.4%
BOISBig
BOIS offense vs OAK defense
Offense 94th of 366 against a defense 266th, on the model’s ratings
OAKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OAK 14.7%, BOIS 16.9%. Forced: OAK 15.1%, BOIS 14.6%
BOISSmall
OAK offense vs BOIS defense
Offense 159th of 366 against a defense 74th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: OAK plays 71.1 a game (67th fastest), BOIS 68.3 (215th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
OAK has played the 150th-hardest schedule, BOIS the 82nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
BOISSmall
Home court
BOIS at home. This season: BOIS 0-0 at home, OAK 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OAK 20%, BOIS 34%. Transfers in: OAK 5, BOIS 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: OAK 52.7 and allows 54.7; BOIS 52.2 and allows 52.6
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: OAK 38.1, BOIS 42.7. Allowed: OAK 24.6, BOIS 32.1
Even
Three-pointers
OAK hits 34.7% and allows 34.3%; BOIS hits 34.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 34.0% and 43.1% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BOIS -15.3—
Total—153.4—
Projected score—OAK 69 · BOIS 84.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBOIS -8.9—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreOAK 31.4 · BOIS 40.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Boise St has the better starters

Position by position: Oakland 1, Boise St 3, even 1
OaklandBetterBoise St
G N. Mashhour9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 22
BOISBig
G D. Wheeler-Thomas TR14.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 67
G B. Swartz TR7.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41
BOISBig
G L. Washington TR9.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 5.1 ast Score 76
F B. El Shakery TR11.2 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 59
Even
F D. Butka TR13.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.6 ast Score 66
F C. Fields TR9.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 79
OAKSmall
F J. Stanback TR8.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62
F J. Hill TR7 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
BOISBig
F P. Carmichael7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
OaklandBetterBoise St
OAK offense159th of 366 · -4.8
BOISSmall
BOIS defense74th of 366 · +0.7
OAK defense266th of 366 · -6.8
BOISBig
BOIS offense94th of 366 · -0.5
Backcourt-3.2 · 2 players
BOISBig
Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players
BOISSmall
Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Bench-1.7 · 2 players
Even
Bench-2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestOAK betterBOIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Oakland
Guards
N. Mashhour28 minB. Swartz21 min · TRW. Marshall12 minR. Taylor11 min · TRW. KassiNewH. MashhourNew
Forwards
B. El Shakery27 min · TRC. Fields18 min · TRJ. Hill17 min · TRN. AhnerNewC. ThompsonNewI. TheodileNew
Boise St
Guards
D. Wheeler-Thomas31 min · TRL. Washington29 min · TRA. Neto19 minJ. Bowie5 minR. Bergersen2 minB. Ramirez2 min
Forwards
D. Butka34 min · TRJ. Stanback25 min · TRP. Carmichael19 minS. Ahrens13 minB. Buom5 minE. Lathan2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OAKBOIS
Scoring
81.6 #37Points per game77.4 #108
1.14 #66Points per possession1.13 #82
71.1 #67Pace (possessions)68.3 #215
Shooting
52.7 #114Effective FG%52.2 #138
34.7 #1313-point %34.3 #151
34.0 #2943-point attempt rate43.1 #114
38.1 #100Free throw rate42.7 #23
Possessions
14.7 #47Turnover rate16.9 #195
31.3 #152Offensive rebound rate33.2 #85
15.7 #60Assists per game12.4 #258
Defense
82.8 #344Points allowed73.2 #137
1.17 #340Points allowed per possession1.08 #145
54.7 #322Opponent effective FG%52.6 #250
34.3 #206Opponent 3-point %34.4 #213
15.1 #275Turnovers forced14.6 #317
65.6 #324Defensive rebound rate76.4 #3
7.2 #106Steals per game4.6 #350
3.7 #110Blocks per game2.1 #339
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oakland

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky84–85
  • Lvs Detroit Mercy89–95
  • W@ IU Indy86–74
  • Wvs Milwaukee81–70
  • Lvs Green Bay68–73

A week or more of rest.

Boise St

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San José St74–84
  • W@ Colorado St78–67
  • Wvs San Diego St86–77
  • W@ Fresno St69–53
  • Wvs Wyoming72–62

A week or more of rest.