Lindenwood Lions at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 9:00 PM ETPinnacle Bank Arena · at Nebraska

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lindenwood Lions and Nebraska
LIN	This season	NEB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEB 88–60 · win probability NEB 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

LIN 0, NEB 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

LIN has played the 357th-hardest schedule, NEB the 59th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NEBBig

LIN offense vs NEB defense

Offense 250th of 366 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

NEBBig

NEB offense vs LIN defense

Offense 43rd of 366 against a defense 261st, on the model’s ratings

NEBBig

Three-pointers

LIN hits 29.4% and allows 32.4%; NEB hits 35.5% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 30.7% and 51.1% of their shots

NEBBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIN 48.0 and allows 49.1; NEB 55.5 and allows 48.1

NEBBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIN 18.7%, NEB 14.5%. Forced: LIN 18.4%, NEB 18.9%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: LIN plays 73.0 a game (18th fastest), NEB 67.3 (267th). Faster games mean more points

NEBSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIN 0%, NEB 48%. Transfers in: LIN 0, NEB 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

NEBSmall

Home court

NEB at home. This season: NEB 0-0 at home, LIN 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIN 38.6, NEB 26.2. Allowed: LIN 37.4, NEB 25.1

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIN 33.3%, NEB 26.7%. Defensive: LIN 68.3%, NEB 72.6%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEB -27.8	—
Total	—	148.7	—
Projected score	—	LIN 60.4 · NEB 88.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEB -16.4	—
1H total	69.5	—
1H projected score	LIN 26.5 · NEB 43	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIN LLWWW	13-17	43%	6-10	—
NEB WLWWL	19-16	54%	8-10	—

Venue/role: LIN away; NEB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIN UUOUU	17-13	57%	15-15
NEB OUUUO	11-24	31%	28-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NEB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lindenwood Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ OMA	W72–70WU
Nov 17	@ UNI	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs NHVN	No recent meeting

Nebraska

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs BOIS	W79–69WU
Nov 18	vs SDAK	W96–79LO
Nov 22	vs BTLR	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LIN 0–1 NEBNEB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LIN 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 6, 2023-24	LIN 52 @ NEB 84	NEB -22	NEB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lindenwood Lions

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L L W L L W W W W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L L W L W W W L W L W L L L W L W L W L L W L L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O U U U O O O U U O U O O U O O U O O O O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@TTU	L 60-98	+29.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 10	@SLU	L 66-109	+24.5	L −18.5	165.5	O 175
Nov 14	vsCHSO	W 83-77	-2.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 160
Nov 16	@AAMU	L 65-74	+3.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 20	@IU	L 53-73	+32.5	W +12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 24	vsKC	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	152.5	U 147
Dec 2	@NIU	W 99-64	+3.5	W +38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@EIU	W 82-74	-8.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 18	vsWIU	W 92-76	-12.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 23	@MOST	L 65-70	+3.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 1	vsMORE	W 77-64	-6.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 3	vsUSI	W 83-80	-9.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 6	@SIUE	L 62-66	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsLR	L 74-82	-6.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	@SEMO	W 88-76	+6.5	W +18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	@UTM	L 55-69	+2.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 124
Jan 22	vsTNTC	W 89-68	-8.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsTNST	L 86-96	-4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 29	@USI	W 73-60	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@MORE	W 79-78	-1.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 3	vsSIUE	L 72-78	-4.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 5	@LR	W 79-74	-1.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 12	vsUTM	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsSEMO	L 61-73	-1.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 19	@TNST	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 21	@TNTC	L 57-72	-1.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	vsEIU	L 67-71	-7.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@WIU	W 91-69	-11.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 4	vsLR	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 5	vsSEMO	L 66-68	+3.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

−8.5

SLU

L 66-109

−18.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+3.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−5.5

L 53-73

+12.5

W 80-67

+8.5

NIU

W 99-64

+38.5

EIU

W 82-74

−0.5

WIU

W 92-76

+3.5

MOST

L 65-70

−1.5

W 77-64

+6.5

USI

W 83-80

−6.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−2.5

L 74-82

−14.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+18.5

UTM

L 55-69

−11.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+12.5

TNST

L 86-96

−14.5

USI

W 73-60

+8.5

W 79-78

−0.5

SIUE

L 72-78

−10.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

−0.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−13.5

TNST

L 80-89

−5.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−16.5

EIU

L 67-71

−11.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

+4.5

SEMO

L 66-68

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

+11.5

SLU

L 66-109

+9.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+4.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−10.5

L 53-73

−29.5

W 80-67

−5.5

NIU

W 99-64

+15.5

EIU

W 82-74

+10.5

WIU

W 92-76

+21.5

MOST

L 65-70

−10.5

W 77-64

−6.5

USI

W 83-80

+15.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−14.5

L 74-82

+6.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+9.5

UTM

L 55-69

−23.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+5.5

TNST

L 86-96

+21.5

USI

W 73-60

−17.5

W 79-78

+8.5

SIUE

L 72-78

+9.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

+3.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−20.5

TNST

L 80-89

+9.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−22.5

EIU

L 67-71

−6.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

−14.5

SEMO

L 66-68

−14.5

over 17under 13avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nebraska

35 games played

Straight up

28-7

80% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-780%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

W W L W W L L L W W W L L L W W W W L W W L L L W L W L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2431%

U O U O O O U U U U O U U U U O U U U U U U O O U U O U U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWGA	W 86-53	-24.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 139
Nov 8	vsFIU	W 96-66	-21.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsUMES	W 69-50	-35.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 15	vsOU	W 105-99	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsUNM	W 84-72	-8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsKSU	W 86-85	-1.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsWIN	W 80-73	-14.5	L −7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsUPST	W 72-63	-25.5	L −16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 7	vsCREI	W 71-50	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 10	vsWIS	W 90-60	-1.5	W +28.5	158.5	U 150
Dec 13	@ILL	W 83-80	+9.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsUND	W 78-55	-29.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 133
Dec 30	vsUNH	W 86-55	-31.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 2	vsMSU	W 58-56	-2.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 114
Jan 5	@OSU	W 72-69	+2.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 141
Jan 10	@IU	W 83-77	+4.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsORE	W 90-55	-10.5	W +24.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 17	@NU	W 77-58	-4.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	vsWASH	W 76-66	-10.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 142
Jan 24	@MINN	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 27	@MICH	L 72-75	+11.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 147
Feb 1	vsILL	L 69-78	-1.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 7	@RUTG	W 80-68	-12.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 10	vsPUR	L 77-80	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsNU	W 68-49	-13.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 117
Feb 17	@IOWA	L 52-57	+1.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 109
Feb 21	vsPSU	W 87-64	-17.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 25	vsMD	W 74-61	-16.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 28	@USC	W 82-67	-5.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 149
Mar 3	@UCLA	L 52-72	+1.5	L −18.5	144.5	U 124
Mar 8	vsIOWA	W 84-75	-4.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsPUR	L 58-74	+4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsTROY	W 76-47	-13.5	W +15.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 21	vsVAN	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 146
Mar 26	vsIOWA	L 71-77	-1.5	L −7.5	131.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

+8.5

FIU

W 96-66

+8.5

UMES

W 69-50

−16.5

W 105-99

+4.5

UNM

W 84-72

+3.5

KSU

W 86-85

−0.5

WIN

W 80-73

−7.5

UPST

W 72-63

−16.5

CREI

W 71-50

+15.5

WIS

W 90-60

+28.5

ILL

W 83-80

+12.5

UND

W 78-55

−6.5

UNH

W 86-55

−0.5

MSU

W 58-56

−0.5

OSU

W 72-69

+5.5

W 83-77

+10.5

ORE

W 90-55

+24.5

W 77-58

+14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−0.5

MINN

W 76-57

+14.5

MICH

L 72-75

+8.5

ILL

L 69-78

−10.5

RUTG

W 80-68

−0.5

PUR

L 77-80

−5.5

W 68-49

+5.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−3.5

PSU

W 87-64

+5.5

W 74-61

−3.5

USC

W 82-67

+9.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−18.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+4.5

PUR

L 58-74

−11.5

TROY

W 76-47

+15.5

VAN

W 74-72

+3.5

IOWA

L 71-77

−7.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

−14.5

FIU

W 96-66

+5.5

UMES

W 69-50

−27.5

W 105-99

+40.5

UNM

W 84-72

+4.5

KSU

W 86-85

+2.5

WIN

W 80-73

−13.5

UPST

W 72-63

−22.5

CREI

W 71-50

−34.5

WIS

W 90-60

−8.5

ILL

W 83-80

+6.5

UND

W 78-55

−18.5

UNH

W 86-55

−5.5

MSU

W 58-56

−32.5

OSU

W 72-69

−14.5

W 83-77

+9.5

ORE

W 90-55

−1.5

W 77-58

−14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−10.5

MINN

W 76-57

−7.5

MICH

L 72-75

−10.5

ILL

L 69-78

−7.5

RUTG

W 80-68

+2.5

PUR

L 77-80

+10.5

W 68-49

−29.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−30.5

PSU

W 87-64

+3.5

W 74-61

−7.5

USC

W 82-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−20.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+22.5

PUR

L 58-74

−13.5

TROY

W 76-47

−16.5

VAN

W 74-72

−0.5

IOWA

L 71-77

+16.5

over 11under 24avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIN74.4 #183

NEB77.0 #116

Points per possession

LIN1.02 #307

NEB1.15 #61

Pace (possessions)

LIN73.0 #18

NEB67.3 #267

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIN48.0 #313

NEB55.5 #28

3-point %

LIN29.4 #347

NEB35.5 #91

3-point attempt rate

LIN30.7 #346

NEB51.1 #9

Free throw rate

LIN38.6 #88

NEB26.2 #356

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIN18.7 #307

NEB14.5 #44

Offensive rebound rate

LIN33.3 #83

NEB26.7 #306

Assists per game

LIN13.0 #212

NEB18.0 #10

Defense

Points allowed

LIN75.0 #190

NEB66.1 #14

Points allowed per possession

LIN1.03 #52

NEB0.98 #13

Opponent effective FG%

LIN49.1 #72

NEB48.1 #40

Opponent 3-point %

LIN32.4 #84

NEB30.5 #19

Turnovers forced

LIN18.4 #78

NEB18.9 #54

Defensive rebound rate

LIN68.3 #244

NEB72.6 #47

Steals per game

LIN8.4 #24

NEB7.1 #112

Blocks per game

LIN4.4 #46

NEB2.5 #303

LIN		NEB
Scoring
74.4 #183	Points per game	77.0 #116
1.02 #307	Points per possession	1.15 #61
73.0 #18	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #267
Shooting
48.0 #313	Effective FG%	55.5 #28
29.4 #347	3-point %	35.5 #91
30.7 #346	3-point attempt rate	51.1 #9
38.6 #88	Free throw rate	26.2 #356
Possessions
18.7 #307	Turnover rate	14.5 #44
33.3 #83	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #306
13.0 #212	Assists per game	18.0 #10
Defense
75.0 #190	Points allowed	66.1 #14
1.03 #52	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #13
49.1 #72	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #40
32.4 #84	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #19
18.4 #78	Turnovers forced	18.9 #54
68.3 #244	Defensive rebound rate	72.6 #47
8.4 #24	Steals per game	7.1 #112
4.4 #46	Blocks per game	2.5 #303

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lindenwood Lions

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SE Missouri66–68
Wvs Little Rock72–62
W@ W Illinois91–69
Lvs E Illinois67–71
L@ Tennessee Tech57–72

A week or more of rest.

Nebraska

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa71–77
Wvs Vanderbilt74–72
Wvs Troy76–47
Lvs Purdue58–74
Wvs Iowa84–75

A week or more of rest.

Lindenwood Lions at Nebraska Cornhuskers

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lindenwood Lions

Nebraska

Matchup stats

Lindenwood Lions

Nebraska