1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. PRST @ CSU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Portland State Vikings at Colorado State Rams

Moby Arena · at Colorado St
#274PRSTPortland St
@
#87CSUColorado St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PRSTThis seasonCSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CSU 81–63 · win probability CSU 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CSU has more of the edges

PRST 2, CSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
PRST has played the 322nd-hardest schedule, CSU the 96th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CSUBig
PRST offense vs CSU defense
Offense 284th of 366 against a defense 61st, on the model’s ratings
CSUBig
CSU offense vs PRST defense
Offense 103rd of 366 against a defense 244th, on the model’s ratings
PRSTBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PRST 16.9%, CSU 18.5%. Forced: PRST 18.0%, CSU 15.4%
CSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: PRST 37.1, CSU 39.4. Allowed: PRST 42.8, CSU 34.2
CSUBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PRST 6%, CSU 67%. Transfers in: PRST 4, CSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: PRST plays 69.6 a game (140th fastest), CSU 64.4 (355th). Faster games mean more points
CSUSmall
Three-pointers
PRST hits 32.6% and allows 32.3%; CSU hits 38.6% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 34.4% and 49.1% of their shots
CSUSmall
Home court
CSU at home. This season: CSU 0-0 at home, PRST 0-0 away
PRSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PRST 30.0%, CSU 30.0%. Defensive: PRST 73.6%, CSU 70.8%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: PRST 50.5 and allows 48.8; CSU 57.5 and allows 52.9
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CSU -17.6—
Total—143.5—
Projected score—PRST 63 · CSU 80.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCSU -10.3—
1H total67.2—
1H projected scorePRST 28.4 · CSU 38.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Colorado St has the better starters

Position by position: Portland St 0, Colorado St 3, even 2
Portland StBetterColorado St
G E. Skytt TR3.4 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26
CSUBig
G J. Menard TR12.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 79
G K. Johnson TR1.8 pts · 0.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 39
CSUSmall
G J. Pascarelli10.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 64
G C. Ness0.6 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Butler9.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 67
F B. Barron0.7 pts · 1.1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F K. Jorgensen11.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 87
C K. Ibekwe TR3.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 34
CSUBig
F C. Booth10.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
Portland StBetterColorado St
PRST offense284th of 366 · -8.8
CSUBig
CSU defense61st of 366 · +1.2
PRST defense244th of 366 · -6.4
CSUBig
CSU offense103rd of 366 · -1.2
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
CSUBig
Backcourt+1.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
CSUBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 2 players
Bench-0.3 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestPRST betterCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Portland St
Guards
E. Skytt12 min · TRK. Johnson10 min · TRC. Ness4 minN. PollardNewT. FrankNewD. JohnsonNew
Forwards
B. Barron4 minC. Chukwu3 minL. Kearney3 min · TRJ. RandolphNewA. PusateriNewF. CoratoNew
Centers
K. Ibekwe9 min · TR
Colorado St
Guards
J. Menard29 min · TRJ. Pascarelli27 minJ. Butler26 minJ. McIver12 minR. SawyerNewP. DunsonNew
Forwards
K. Jorgensen26 minC. Booth25 minR. Mbemba18 minC. Dortch2 minA. MillerNewD. TedeschiNew
Centers
J. ClarkNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PRSTCSU
Scoring
73.9 #199Points per game74.8 #169
1.06 #220Points per possession1.16 #44
69.6 #140Pace (possessions)64.4 #355
Shooting
50.5 #211Effective FG%57.5 #12
32.6 #2503-point %38.6 #9
34.4 #2873-point attempt rate49.1 #19
37.1 #126Free throw rate39.4 #69
Possessions
16.9 #200Turnover rate18.5 #298
30.0 #199Offensive rebound rate30.0 #198
13.4 #186Assists per game15.6 #62
Defense
71.2 #80Points allowed71.6 #95
1.02 #45Points allowed per possession1.11 #241
48.8 #56Opponent effective FG%52.9 #263
32.3 #77Opponent 3-point %34.2 #196
18.0 #94Turnovers forced15.4 #255
73.6 #23Defensive rebound rate70.8 #123
7.2 #104Steals per game5.2 #320
3.8 #108Blocks per game2.1 #338
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Portland St

17-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Montana72–75
  • Wvs Idaho St85–78
  • Wvs Weber St84–60
  • L@ Montana68–74
  • L@ Montana St69–84

A week or more of rest.

Colorado St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's64–69
  • Lvs San Diego St62–71
  • Wvs Fresno St67–63
  • Lvs Boise St67–78
  • W@ New Mexico82–74

A week or more of rest.