Nevada Wolf Pack at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 9:00 PM ETThe Thunderdome · at Santa Barbara

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nevada and Santa Barbara
NEV	This season	UCSB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEV 75–71 · win probability NEV 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

NEV 3, UCSB 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NEVBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NEV 14.8%, UCSB 18.8%. Forced: NEV 17.0%, UCSB 16.8%

Context

Schedule so far

NEV has played the 94th-hardest schedule, UCSB the 203rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

NEVSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NEV 44.8, UCSB 36.8. Allowed: NEV 38.9, UCSB 42.4

NEVSmall

UCSB offense vs NEV defense

Offense 150th of 366 against a defense 73rd, on the model’s ratings

UCSBSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NEV 50.0 and allows 51.1; UCSB 54.7 and allows 52.6

UCSBSmall

Home court

UCSB at home. This season: UCSB 0-0 at home, NEV 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NEV 38%, UCSB 53%. Transfers in: NEV 5, UCSB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

NEV offense vs UCSB defense

Offense 104th of 366 against a defense 128th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

NEV hits 35.8% and allows 33.7%; UCSB hits 37.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 32.3% and 44.1% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NEV 32.2%, UCSB 31.0%. Defensive: NEV 73.1%, UCSB 74.5%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: NEV plays 67.7 a game (243rd fastest), UCSB 68.2 (218th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEV -3.7	—
Total	—	146.1	—
Projected score	—	NEV 74.9 · UCSB 71.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEV -2.3	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	NEV 35.3 · UCSB 33	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV WLWWW	22-15	59%	7-6	—
UCSB WWLLL	12-18	40%	8-5	—

Venue/role: NEV away; UCSB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV OUOUU	20-17	54%	24-13
UCSB OUUUO	16-14	53%	16-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
UCSB	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nevada

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs UVU	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs IDHO	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs SF	W81–65WO

Santa Barbara

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	@ PEPP	W67–64WU
Nov 24	vs UNCG	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs LEH	W72–70LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NEV 1–0 UCSBNEV leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NEV 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 22, 2025-26	UCSB 64 @ NEV 77	NEV -5.5	NEV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nevada

37 games played

Straight up

24-13

65% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-17

54% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1365%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W L W L W W L W W L W L L W W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W W W W L L L W W L L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1754%

U O O O O U O O U U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U U O O U O O U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 15	@SCU	L 83-98	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsUCD	L 71-75	-12.5	L −16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 22	vsUCSB	W 77-64	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 27	vsWASH	L 66-83	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsSF	W 81-65	+5.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 2	vsUCSD	W 76-70	-5.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 7	@WSU	W 78-64	+2.5	W +16.5	145.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsDUQ	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 153
Dec 20	vsBOIS	W 81-66	+3.5	W +18.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 30	@CSU	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@FRES	W 66-65	-4.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 6	vsSDSU	L 68-73	-1.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsWYO	W 92-83	-3.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 175
Jan 14	@USU	L 62-71	+13.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 17	@AF	W 81-66	-14.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 20	vsSJSU	W 87-54	-16.5	W +16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@UNM	L 73-80	+8.5	W +1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsGCU	W 66-60	-3.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 126
Jan 30	vsUNLV	W 89-76	-7.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 165
Feb 3	@BOIS	L 87-91	+6.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 178
Feb 7	vsFRES	W 69-59	-11.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 14	@SDSU	L 57-71	+7.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 128
Feb 17	@SJSU	L 71-87	-10.5	L −26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsUSU	W 80-77	+5.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsUNM	W 67-60	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	@UNLV	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 168
Mar 3	@WYO	L 73-83	-1.5	L −11.5	143.5	O 156
Mar 7	vsAF	W 74-59	-24.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsAF	W 80-45	-19.5	W +15.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 12	vsGCU	W 84-80	+3.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 164
Mar 13	vsUSU	L 66-79	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 18	vsMUR	W 89-75	-8.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 164
Mar 21	vsLIB	W 73-63	-7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Mar 25	@AUB	L 69-75	+8.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

SCU

L 83-98

−8.5

UCD

L 71-75

−16.5

UCSB

W 77-64

+7.5

WASH

L 66-83

−13.5

W 81-65

+21.5

UCSD

W 76-70

+0.5

WSU

W 78-64

+16.5

DUQ

W 78-75

−2.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+18.5

CSU

W 75-62

+14.5

FRES

W 66-65

−3.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−6.5

WYO

W 92-83

+5.5

USU

L 62-71

+4.5

W 81-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+16.5

UNM

L 73-80

+1.5

GCU

W 66-60

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+5.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+2.5

FRES

W 69-59

−1.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−6.5

SJSU

L 71-87

−26.5

USU

W 80-77

+8.5

UNM

W 67-60

+5.5

UNLV

L 83-85

−3.5

WYO

L 73-83

−11.5

W 74-59

−9.5

W 80-45

+15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+7.5

USU

L 66-79

−6.5

MUR

W 89-75

+5.5

LIB

W 73-63

+2.5

AUB

L 69-75

+2.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

SCU

L 83-98

+36.5

UCD

L 71-75

+2.5

UCSB

W 77-64

−6.5

WASH

L 66-83

+3.5

W 81-65

+3.5

UCSD

W 76-70

−3.5

WSU

W 78-64

−3.5

DUQ

W 78-75

+1.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+5.5

CSU

W 75-62

−2.5

FRES

W 66-65

−15.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−0.5

WYO

W 92-83

+31.5

USU

L 62-71

−14.5

W 81-66

+12.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+3.5

UNM

L 73-80

+2.5

GCU

W 66-60

−17.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+17.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+36.5

FRES

W 69-59

−21.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−11.5

SJSU

L 71-87

+16.5

USU

W 80-77

+10.5

UNM

W 67-60

−21.5

UNLV

L 83-85

+17.5

WYO

L 73-83

+12.5

W 74-59

−11.5

W 80-45

−15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+26.5

USU

L 66-79

−0.5

MUR

W 89-75

+4.5

LIB

W 73-63

−10.5

AUB

L 69-75

−7.5

over 20under 17avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Barbara

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

W W L L W W W W L L W L L L W W W W W W L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L L L L W L W L L W L L L L W W L W W L W W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O O U U O O O U U U O U O U U O O U U O O U O O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSJSU	W 85-74	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 11	@SAC	W 92-87	-7.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 17	vsLMU	L 74-78	-3.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 22	@NEV	L 64-77	+5.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsLEH	W 72-70	-10.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsSEA	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 145
Dec 4	vsLBSU	W 84-77	-13.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsCSUB	W 109-84	-12.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 13	vsUVU	L 53-68	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 121
Dec 17	@GB	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	140.5	U 131
Dec 22	vsPORT	W 79-61	-9.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 1	@CSUF	L 84-95	-3.5	L −14.5	155.5	O 179
Jan 3	@CSUN	L 65-74	+2.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsUCD	L 86-93	-4.5	L −11.5	147.5	O 179
Jan 15	@CSUB	W 75-69	-7.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsHAW	W 77-62	+2.5	W +17.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 22	vsCP	W 107-67	-8.5	W +31.5	159.5	O 174
Jan 24	@LBSU	W 74-71	-4.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 29	@UCSD	W 62-48	+4.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 110
Jan 31	vsCSUF	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 152
Feb 5	@UCD	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 7	vsUCI	W 84-79	-2.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 163
Feb 12	@UCR	W 76-68	-6.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 14	@CP	L 79-89	-3.5	L −13.5	159.5	O 168
Feb 19	vsCSUN	L 83-85	-5.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 21	@HAW	L 75-78	+5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 26	vsUCR	W 70-59	-10.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 129
Feb 28	@UCI	L 60-64	+3.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	vsUCSD	L 63-64	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsUCD	L 73-79	-4.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+1.5

SAC

W 92-87

−2.5

LMU

L 74-78

−7.5

NEV

L 64-77

−7.5

LEH

W 72-70

−8.5

SEA

W 74-71

+5.5

LBSU

W 84-77

−6.5

CSUB

W 109-84

+12.5

UVU

L 53-68

−9.5

L 64-67

−10.5

PORT

W 79-61

+8.5

CSUF

L 84-95

−14.5

CSUN

L 65-74

−6.5

UCD

L 86-93

−11.5

CSUB

W 75-69

−1.5

HAW

W 77-62

+17.5

W 107-67

+31.5

LBSU

W 74-71

−1.5

UCSD

W 62-48

+18.5

CSUF

W 83-69

+5.5

UCD

L 75-85

−13.5

UCI

W 84-79

+2.5

UCR

W 76-68

+1.5

L 79-89

−13.5

CSUN

L 83-85

−7.5

HAW

L 75-78

+2.5

UCR

W 70-59

+0.5

UCI

L 60-64

−0.5

UCSD

L 63-64

−3.5

UCD

L 73-79

−10.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+12.5

SAC

W 92-87

+17.5

LMU

L 74-78

+6.5

NEV

L 64-77

−6.5

LEH

W 72-70

−4.5

SEA

W 74-71

+2.5

LBSU

W 84-77

+19.5

CSUB

W 109-84

+47.5

UVU

L 53-68

−25.5

L 64-67

−9.5

PORT

W 79-61

−7.5

CSUF

L 84-95

+23.5

CSUN

L 65-74

−17.5

UCD

L 86-93

+31.5

CSUB

W 75-69

−0.5

HAW

W 77-62

−4.5

W 107-67

+14.5

LBSU

W 74-71

+0.5

UCSD

W 62-48

−35.5

CSUF

W 83-69

−1.5

UCD

L 75-85

+12.5

UCI

W 84-79

+21.5

UCR

W 76-68

−1.5

L 79-89

+8.5

CSUN

L 83-85

+11.5

HAW

L 75-78

+7.5

UCR

W 70-59

−16.5

UCI

L 60-64

−14.5

UCSD

L 63-64

−14.5

UCD

L 73-79

+12.5

over 16under 14avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nevada has the better starters

Position by position: Nevada 3, Santa Barbara 1, even 1

NevadaBetterSanta Barbara

G S. Phipps TR13.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 77

NEVSmall

G V. Vartiainen TR12.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 52

G K. Kensie TR10.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 54

UCSBBig

G M. Little12.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 4.8 ast Score 91

G P. Bandelj TR12.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 57

Even

G C. Shaw11.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

G V. Weems10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84

NEVBig

G R. Smith TR6.6 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43

F E. Price12.8 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 91

NEVBig

C E. Dibami TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 45

NevadaBetterSanta Barbara

NEV offense104th of 366 · -1.4

Even

UCSB defense128th of 366 · -2.3

NEV defense73rd of 366 · +0.7

NEVSmall

UCSB offense150th of 366 · -4.5

Backcourt+2.1 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt+1.4 · 4 players

Frontcourt+3.4 · 1 player

NEVBig

Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player

Bench-1.3 · 4 players

NEVSmall

Bench-3.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNEV betterUCSB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nevada

Guards

S. Phipps34 min · TRK. Kensie31 min · TRP. Bandelj31 min · TRV. Weems25 minP. White14 minM. Walker8 min

Forwards

E. Price30 minH. LucasNewK. SnyderNew

Centers

S. Majok12 min · TRC. Lath4 min · TR

Santa Barbara

Guards

V. Vartiainen31 min · TRM. Little30 minC. Shaw29 minR. Smith28 min · TRM. McGhee21 minL. Zuffelato4 min

Forwards

A. Chol24 min · TRM. Simcoe9 minD. Duru7 min · TRK. Keat Tong6 minK. Haughy2 minJ. Simcoe2 min

Centers

E. Dibami29 min · TRM. John WuolNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NEV76.0 #141

UCSB76.7 #127

Points per possession

NEV1.12 #96

UCSB1.13 #87

Pace (possessions)

NEV67.7 #243

UCSB68.2 #218

Shooting

Effective FG%

NEV50.0 #236

UCSB54.7 #47

3-point %

NEV35.8 #70

UCSB37.4 #23

3-point attempt rate

NEV32.3 #326

UCSB44.1 #87

Free throw rate

NEV44.8 #6

UCSB36.8 #134

Possessions

Turnover rate

NEV14.8 #56

UCSB18.8 #312

Offensive rebound rate

NEV32.2 #119

UCSB31.0 #165

Assists per game

NEV14.5 #119

UCSB14.1 #140

Defense

Points allowed

NEV71.5 #92

UCSB73.7 #148

Points allowed per possession

NEV1.06 #101

UCSB1.08 #156

Opponent effective FG%

NEV51.1 #166

UCSB52.6 #244

Opponent 3-point %

NEV33.7 #168

UCSB33.9 #177

Turnovers forced

NEV17.0 #150

UCSB16.8 #170

Defensive rebound rate

NEV73.1 #33

UCSB74.5 #14

Steals per game

NEV6.6 #168

UCSB6.2 #216

Blocks per game

NEV3.8 #106

UCSB2.3 #322

NEV		UCSB
Scoring
76.0 #141	Points per game	76.7 #127
1.12 #96	Points per possession	1.13 #87
67.7 #243	Pace (possessions)	68.2 #218
Shooting
50.0 #236	Effective FG%	54.7 #47
35.8 #70	3-point %	37.4 #23
32.3 #326	3-point attempt rate	44.1 #87
44.8 #6	Free throw rate	36.8 #134
Possessions
14.8 #56	Turnover rate	18.8 #312
32.2 #119	Offensive rebound rate	31.0 #165
14.5 #119	Assists per game	14.1 #140
Defense
71.5 #92	Points allowed	73.7 #148
1.06 #101	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #156
51.1 #166	Opponent effective FG%	52.6 #244
33.7 #168	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #177
17.0 #150	Turnovers forced	16.8 #170
73.1 #33	Defensive rebound rate	74.5 #14
6.6 #168	Steals per game	6.2 #216
3.8 #106	Blocks per game	2.3 #322

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nevada

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Auburn69–75
Wvs Liberty73–63
Wvs Murray St89–75
Lvs Utah State66–79
Wvs Grand Canyon84–80

A week or more of rest.

Santa Barbara

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC Davis73–79
Lvs UC San Diego63–64
L@ UC Irvine60–64
Wvs UC Riverside70–59
L@ Hawai'i75–78

A week or more of rest.

Nevada Wolf Pack at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Nevada

Santa Barbara

Nevada has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nevada

Santa Barbara