1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. CP @ GCU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Cal Poly Mustangs at Grand Canyon Lopes

Global Credit Union Arena · at Grand Canyon
#164CPCal Poly
@
#80GCUGrand Canyon
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CPThis seasonGCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GCU 87–75 · win probability GCU 87%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 162.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GCU has more of the edges

CP 1, GCU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GCUBig
GCU offense vs CP defense
Offense 83rd of 366 against a defense 343rd, on the model’s ratings
GCUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: CP 51.5 and allows 53.8; GCU 51.7 and allows 47.4
GCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CP 30.0%, GCU 31.3%. Defensive: CP 70.4%, GCU 74.7%
CPSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CP 100%, GCU 51%. Transfers in: CP 0, GCU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
GCUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CP 19.8%, GCU 17.6%. Forced: CP 16.3%, GCU 17.4%
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: CP plays 76.4 a game (1st fastest), GCU 69.3 (166th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
CP has played the 170th-hardest schedule, GCU the 107th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GCUSmall
Three-pointers
CP hits 33.0% and allows 34.7%; GCU hits 31.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 52.6% and 38.9% of their shots
GCUSmall
Home court
GCU at home. This season: GCU 0-0 at home, CP 0-0 away
Even
CP offense vs GCU defense
Offense 91st of 366 against a defense 78th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CP 34.9, GCU 39.5. Allowed: CP 34.1, GCU 39.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GCU -12.6—
Total—162.2—
Projected score—CP 74.8 · GCU 87.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGCU -7.4—
1H total75.8—
1H projected scoreCP 34.2 · GCU 41.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Grand Canyon has the better starters

Position by position: Cal Poly 1, Grand Canyon 3, even 1
Cal PolyBetterGrand Canyon
G H. Mousa20.3 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 96
CPBig
G J. Zimmerman TR15.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 32
G C. Ward14.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 58
Even
G M. Tucker TR13 pts · 2.1 reb · 3 ast Score 56
G G. Vasilic7.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21
GCUBig
G J. Henley17.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 97
G J. Davis5.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
GCUBig
G M. Williams14 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
G K. Elliott5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 33
GCUBig
F B. Barkley TR14.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89
Cal PolyBetterGrand Canyon
CP offense91st of 366 · -0.2
Even
GCU defense78th of 366 · +0.5
CP defense343rd of 366 · -9.2
GCUBig
GCU offense83rd of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-1.4 · 5 players
GCUBig
Backcourt+4.6 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
GCUBig
Bench+2.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCP betterGCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Cal Poly
Guards
H. Mousa32 minC. Ward30 minG. Vasilic23 minJ. Davis21 minK. Elliott18 minJ. Esso Essis17 min
Forwards
A. Goode16 minT. Plumtree13 minA. Assran13 minA. Price6 minB. FreemanNew
Grand Canyon
Guards
J. Zimmerman33 min · TRM. Tucker32 min · TRJ. Henley32 minM. Williams27 minT. Holloman26 min · TRD. Skillings25 min · TR
Forwards
B. Barkley29 min · TRT. Behrend22 min · TRA. Dickerson22 min · TRO. Biliew20 min · TRJ. SawyerNewJ. WhortonNew
Centers
E. Demirel23 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CPGCU
Scoring
81.3 #42Points per game75.6 #153
1.06 #222Points per possession1.09 #158
76.4 #1Pace (possessions)69.3 #166
Shooting
51.5 #170Effective FG%51.7 #162
33.0 #2283-point %31.8 #286
52.6 #53-point attempt rate38.9 #192
34.9 #182Free throw rate39.5 #67
Possessions
19.8 #345Turnover rate17.6 #245
30.0 #202Offensive rebound rate31.3 #150
13.3 #194Assists per game12.8 #230
Defense
85.3 #360Points allowed68.7 #42
1.12 #274Points allowed per possession0.99 #22
53.8 #292Opponent effective FG%47.4 #28
34.7 #231Opponent 3-point %31.9 #60
16.3 #203Turnovers forced17.4 #129
70.4 #141Defensive rebound rate74.7 #12
6.4 #188Steals per game6.6 #165
2.2 #337Blocks per game3.6 #123
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cal Poly

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC San Diego69–72
  • Wvs Bakersfield108–76
  • L@ UC Irvine85–107
  • L@ UC San Diego64–80
  • Wvs Long Beach St102–92

A week or more of rest.

Grand Canyon

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nevada80–84
  • Wvs Fresno St85–60
  • W@ Air Force86–60
  • L@ Utah State69–74
  • Wvs UNLV80–67

A week or more of rest.