Cal Poly Mustangs at Idaho Vandals: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 9:00 PM ETICCU Arena · at Idaho

#247IDHOIdaho

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cal Poly and Idaho
CP	This season	IDHO
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CP 81–80 · win probability CP 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 161.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IDHO has more of the edges

CP 3, IDHO 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CPBig

CP offense vs IDHO defense

Offense 91st of 366 against a defense 233rd, on the model’s ratings

CPBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CP 100%, IDHO 23%. Transfers in: CP 0, IDHO 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

IDHOSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CP 19.8%, IDHO 15.0%. Forced: CP 16.3%, IDHO 15.0%

Context

Schedule so far

CP has played the 170th-hardest schedule, IDHO the 262nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

IDHOSmall

IDHO offense vs CP defense

Offense 253rd of 366 against a defense 343rd, on the model’s ratings

IDHOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CP 51.5 and allows 53.8; IDHO 51.4 and allows 50.5

Context

Tempo

About 73 possessions: CP plays 76.4 a game (1st fastest), IDHO 69.4 (153rd). Faster games mean more points

CPSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CP 34.9, IDHO 34.6. Allowed: CP 34.1, IDHO 38.5

IDHOSmall

Home court

IDHO at home. This season: IDHO 0-0 at home, CP 0-0 away

IDHOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CP 30.0%, IDHO 28.4%. Defensive: CP 70.4%, IDHO 75.8%

Even

Three-pointers

CP hits 33.0% and allows 34.7%; IDHO hits 34.1% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 52.6% and 47.0% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CP -1.4	—
Total	—	161.2	—
Projected score	—	CP 81.3 · IDHO 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CP -1.0	—
1H total	75.3	—
1H projected score	CP 38.1 · IDHO 37.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CP WLLWW	17-14	55%	9-8	—
IDHO WWWWL	16-17	48%	4-6	—

Venue/role: CP away; IDHO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CP OUOOU	18-13	58%	12-19
IDHO UOOUU	14-19	42%	18-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CP	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
IDHO	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cal Poly

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ MTST	L80–83LO
Nov 21	vs NAU	L87–93LO
Dec 3	@ CSUN	L96–97WO

Idaho

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ NEV	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs CSUB	L63–64LU
Nov 27	@ WSU	W83–81WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CP 2–2 IDHOSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · IDHO has won the last 2 meetings · CP 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2025-26	IDHO 83 @ CP 80	CP +1.5	IDHO W
Dec 2, 2023-24	CP 70 @ IDHO 85	IDHO -3.5	IDHO W
Nov 23, 2022-23	IDHO 71 @ CP 82	CP -7.5	CP W
Nov 24, 2021-22	IDHO 63 vs CP 67	CP -6	IDHO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cal Poly

31 games played

Straight up

12-19

39% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1939%

L W L L W L L W L L L L W L L W L L L W W L L W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

L W W L W L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W W W L W W W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1358%

U U O O O O U O O O O U U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USC	L 64-94	+24.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 8	@SEA	W 73-71	+10.5	W +12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	@CSU	L 79-93	+18.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 172
Nov 14	@MONT	L 82-90	+7.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 172
Nov 20	@UTAH	W 92-85	+14.5	W +21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 24	@NAU	L 87-93	-1.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsSEMO	L 68-84	+1.5	L −14.5	170.5	U 152
Dec 4	@CSUF	W 94-91	+1.5	W +4.5	177.5	O 185
Dec 6	vsUCR	L 84-88	-5.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 16	vsMTST	L 80-83	+2.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 163
Dec 19	@UCLA	L 87-108	+24.5	W +3.5	161.5	O 195
Dec 21	vsIDHO	L 80-83	+1.5	L −1.5	167.5	U 163
Jan 1	vsUCSD	W 67-65	+8.5	W +10.5	174.5	U 132
Jan 3	@LBSU	L 66-74	+2.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 8	@CSUN	L 90-95	+6.5	W +1.5	175.5	O 185
Jan 10	vsUCD	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	168.5	U 162
Jan 15	vsHAW	L 66-86	+5.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 152
Jan 22	@UCSB	L 67-107	+8.5	L −31.5	159.5	O 174
Jan 24	vsCSUF	L 78-93	+1.5	L −13.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 29	@CSUB	W 104-79	-1.5	W +23.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 31	@UCR	W 94-87	+1.5	W +8.5	162.5	O 181
Feb 5	vsCSUN	L 96-97	+2.5	W +1.5	177.5	O 193
Feb 7	@UCD	L 58-67	+5.5	L −3.5	169.5	U 125
Feb 12	vsUCI	W 79-73	+5.5	W +11.5	161.5	U 152
Feb 14	vsUCSB	W 89-79	+3.5	W +13.5	159.5	O 168
Feb 19	@HAW	W 86-75	+11.5	W +22.5	160.5	O 161
Feb 26	vsLBSU	W 102-92	-5.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 194
Feb 28	@UCSD	L 64-80	+7.5	L −8.5	164.5	U 144
Mar 5	@UCI	L 85-107	+9.5	L −12.5	160.5	O 192
Mar 7	vsCSUB	W 108-76	-8.5	W +23.5	174.5	O 184
Mar 11	vsUCSD	L 69-72	+4.5	W +1.5	162.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

+12.5

CSU

L 79-93

+4.5

MONT

L 82-90

−0.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+21.5

NAU

L 87-93

−7.5

SEMO

L 68-84

−14.5

CSUF

W 94-91

+4.5

UCR

L 84-88

−9.5

MTST

L 80-83

−0.5

UCLA

L 87-108

+3.5

IDHO

L 80-83

−1.5

UCSD

W 67-65

+10.5

LBSU

L 66-74

−5.5

CSUN

L 90-95

+1.5

UCD

W 84-78

+7.5

HAW

L 66-86

−14.5

UCSB

L 67-107

−31.5

CSUF

L 78-93

−13.5

CSUB

W 104-79

+23.5

UCR

W 94-87

+8.5

CSUN

L 96-97

+1.5

UCD

L 58-67

−3.5

UCI

W 79-73

+11.5

UCSB

W 89-79

+13.5

HAW

W 86-75

+22.5

LBSU

W 102-92

+4.5

UCSD

L 64-80

−8.5

UCI

L 85-107

−12.5

CSUB

W 108-76

+23.5

UCSD

L 69-72

+1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

−20.5

CSU

L 79-93

+6.5

MONT

L 82-90

+3.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+9.5

NAU

L 87-93

+15.5

SEMO

L 68-84

−18.5

CSUF

W 94-91

+7.5

UCR

L 84-88

+9.5

MTST

L 80-83

+3.5

UCLA

L 87-108

+33.5

IDHO

L 80-83

−4.5

UCSD

W 67-65

−42.5

LBSU

L 66-74

−22.5

CSUN

L 90-95

+9.5

UCD

W 84-78

−6.5

HAW

L 66-86

−8.5

UCSB

L 67-107

+14.5

CSUF

L 78-93

−2.5

CSUB

W 104-79

+21.5

UCR

W 94-87

+18.5

CSUN

L 96-97

+15.5

UCD

L 58-67

−44.5

UCI

W 79-73

−9.5

UCSB

W 89-79

+8.5

HAW

W 86-75

+0.5

LBSU

W 102-92

+31.5

UCSD

L 64-80

−20.5

UCI

L 85-107

+31.5

CSUB

W 108-76

+9.5

UCSD

L 69-72

−21.5

over 18under 13avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Idaho

33 games played

Straight up

18-15

55% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-19

42% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1555%

W L L W L W W L W L W L W L W W L L W L L L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

W L L W L W W L W L L L W L W L L L W L L L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1942%

O U U U O U O O U U O U O U U O U O U U U O O U O U U O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WSU	W 83-81	+7.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 164
Nov 12	@USD	L 74-78	-1.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 15	@UCSD	L 67-75	+5.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 142
Nov 26	vsCSUN	W 78-64	-1.5	W +12.5	159.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsSHSU	L 68-94	-1.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 162
Dec 3	vsUND	W 90-58	-11.5	W +20.5	151.5	U 148
Dec 6	@SDST	W 84-81	+5.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 165
Dec 10	@ND	L 65-80	+11.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 145
Dec 21	@CP	W 83-80	-1.5	W +1.5	167.5	U 163
Dec 23	@CSUB	L 63-64	-7.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsEWU	W 84-81	-6.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 165
Jan 8	vsMONT	L 73-79	-4.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 10	vsMTST	W 92-89	-1.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 181
Jan 15	@IDST	L 68-76	+2.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 144
Jan 17	@WEB	W 75-67	-1.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 142
Jan 22	vsSAC	W 86-76	-10.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 162
Jan 24	vsPRST	L 66-69	-1.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@UNCO	L 83-91	+2.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 174
Jan 31	@NAU	W 79-62	-5.5	W +11.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 5	@MTST	L 66-73	+2.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 139
Feb 7	@MONT	L 68-73	+1.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 141
Feb 12	vsWEB	L 72-83	-5.5	L −16.5	153.5	O 155
Feb 14	vsIDST	W 99-69	-6.5	W +23.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 19	@PRST	L 67-77	+3.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 21	@SAC	W 86-80	-4.5	W +1.5	163.5	O 166
Feb 26	vsNAU	W 78-58	-10.5	W +9.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 28	vsUNCO	L 67-76	-2.5	L −11.5	156.5	U 143
Mar 2	@EWU	W 85-81	+3.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 166
Mar 7	vsSAC	W 68-45	-6.5	W +16.5	158.5	U 113
Mar 8	vsMTST	W 78-74	-1.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 152
Mar 10	vsEWU	W 81-68	-1.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 149
Mar 11	vsMONT	W 77-66	-3.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 19	vsHOU	L 47-78	+24.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSU

W 83-81

+9.5

USD

L 74-78

−5.5

UCSD

L 67-75

−2.5

CSUN

W 78-64

+12.5

SHSU

L 68-94

−27.5

UND

W 90-58

+20.5

SDST

W 84-81

+8.5

L 65-80

−3.5

W 83-80

+1.5

CSUB

L 63-64

−8.5

EWU

W 84-81

−3.5

MONT

L 73-79

−10.5

MTST

W 92-89

+1.5

IDST

L 68-76

−5.5

WEB

W 75-67

+6.5

SAC

W 86-76

−0.5

PRST

L 66-69

−4.5

UNCO

L 83-91

−5.5

NAU

W 79-62

+11.5

MTST

L 66-73

−4.5

MONT

L 68-73

−3.5

WEB

L 72-83

−16.5

IDST

W 99-69

+23.5

PRST

L 67-77

−6.5

SAC

W 86-80

+1.5

NAU

W 78-58

+9.5

UNCO

L 67-76

−11.5

EWU

W 85-81

+7.5

SAC

W 68-45

+16.5

MTST

W 78-74

+2.5

EWU

W 81-68

+11.5

MONT

W 77-66

+7.5

HOU

L 47-78

−6.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSU

W 83-81

+9.5

USD

L 74-78

−3.5

UCSD

L 67-75

−6.5

CSUN

W 78-64

−17.5

SHSU

L 68-94

+7.5

UND

W 90-58

−3.5

SDST

W 84-81

+17.5

L 65-80

+0.5

W 83-80

−4.5

CSUB

L 63-64

−23.5

EWU

W 84-81

+6.5

MONT

L 73-79

−2.5

MTST

W 92-89

+36.5

IDST

L 68-76

−5.5

WEB

W 75-67

−16.5

SAC

W 86-76

+0.5

PRST

L 66-69

−10.5

UNCO

L 83-91

+18.5

NAU

W 79-62

−5.5

MTST

L 66-73

−8.5

MONT

L 68-73

−11.5

WEB

L 72-83

+1.5

IDST

W 99-69

+21.5

PRST

L 67-77

−1.5

SAC

W 86-80

+2.5

NAU

W 78-58

−9.5

UNCO

L 67-76

−13.5

EWU

W 85-81

+14.5

SAC

W 68-45

−45.5

MTST

W 78-74

+8.5

EWU

W 81-68

+0.5

MONT

W 77-66

−4.5

HOU

L 47-78

−12.5

over 14under 19avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Idaho has the better starters

Position by position: Cal Poly 0, Idaho 1, even 4

Cal PolyBetterIdaho

G H. Mousa20.3 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 96

No call

G K. Gonzalez18 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

G C. Ward14.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 58

No call

G R. Lafferty TR0.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked

G G. Vasilic7.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21

Even

G M. Klapper2.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 35

G J. Davis5.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15

IDHOSmall

F H. Ward TR5 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 35

G K. Elliott5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 33

Even

F S. Joba4.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25

Cal PolyBetterIdaho

CP offense91st of 366 · -0.2

CPBig

IDHO defense233rd of 366 · -6.2

CP defense343rd of 366 · -9.2

IDHOSmall

IDHO offense253rd of 366 · -7.6

Backcourt-1.4 · 5 players

Even

Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-1.9 · 2 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

IDHOBig

Bench-0.2 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestCP betterIDHO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cal Poly

Guards

H. Mousa32 minC. Ward30 minG. Vasilic23 minJ. Davis21 minK. Elliott18 minJ. Esso Essis17 min

Forwards

A. Goode16 minT. Plumtree13 minA. Assran13 minA. Price6 minB. FreemanNew

Idaho

Guards

K. Gonzalez18 minR. Lafferty13 min · TRM. Klapper12 minK. Wynott10 min · TRB. KennisonNewT. WalNew

Forwards

H. Ward19 min · TRS. Joba17 minD. Trejo-DelgadoNewM. DiaoNewW. JensonNewN. Newman-GomezNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CP81.3 #42

IDHO75.8 #147

Points per possession

CP1.06 #222

IDHO1.10 #145

Pace (possessions)

CP76.4 #1

IDHO69.4 #153

Shooting

Effective FG%

CP51.5 #170

IDHO51.4 #177

3-point %

CP33.0 #228

IDHO34.1 #168

3-point attempt rate

CP52.6 #5

IDHO47.0 #34

Free throw rate

CP34.9 #182

IDHO34.6 #193

Possessions

Turnover rate

CP19.8 #345

IDHO15.0 #69

Offensive rebound rate

CP30.0 #202

IDHO28.4 #250

Assists per game

CP13.3 #194

IDHO11.4 #313

Defense

Points allowed

CP85.3 #360

IDHO74.1 #157

Points allowed per possession

CP1.12 #274

IDHO1.06 #112

Opponent effective FG%

CP53.8 #292

IDHO50.5 #128

Opponent 3-point %

CP34.7 #231

IDHO35.2 #264

Turnovers forced

CP16.3 #203

IDHO15.0 #288

Defensive rebound rate

CP70.4 #141

IDHO75.8 #5

Steals per game

CP6.4 #188

IDHO5.6 #282

Blocks per game

CP2.2 #337

IDHO2.4 #319

CP		IDHO
Scoring
81.3 #42	Points per game	75.8 #147
1.06 #222	Points per possession	1.10 #145
76.4 #1	Pace (possessions)	69.4 #153
Shooting
51.5 #170	Effective FG%	51.4 #177
33.0 #228	3-point %	34.1 #168
52.6 #5	3-point attempt rate	47.0 #34
34.9 #182	Free throw rate	34.6 #193
Possessions
19.8 #345	Turnover rate	15.0 #69
30.0 #202	Offensive rebound rate	28.4 #250
13.3 #194	Assists per game	11.4 #313
Defense
85.3 #360	Points allowed	74.1 #157
1.12 #274	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #112
53.8 #292	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #128
34.7 #231	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #264
16.3 #203	Turnovers forced	15.0 #288
70.4 #141	Defensive rebound rate	75.8 #5
6.4 #188	Steals per game	5.6 #282
2.2 #337	Blocks per game	2.4 #319

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cal Poly

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC San Diego69–72
Wvs Bakersfield108–76
L@ UC Irvine85–107
L@ UC San Diego64–80
Wvs Long Beach St102–92

A week or more of rest.

Idaho

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Houston47–78
Wvs Montana77–66
Wvs E Washington81–68
Wvs Montana St78–74
Wvs Sacramento St68–45

A week or more of rest.

Cal Poly Mustangs at Idaho Vandals

What could decide it: IDHO has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Cal Poly

Idaho

Idaho has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cal Poly

Idaho