Stanford Cardinal at UNLV Rebels: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 9:00 PM ETThomas & Mack Center · at UNLV

#98UNLVUNLV

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Stanford and UNLV
STAN	This season	UNLV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNLV 76–76 · win probability UNLV 50%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STAN has more of the edges

STAN 3, UNLV 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

STANSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: STAN 32.5%, UNLV 30.2%. Defensive: STAN 70.2%, UNLV 68.0%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: STAN plays 68.1 a game (225th fastest), UNLV 71.3 (57th). Faster games mean more points

STANSmall

Three-pointers

STAN hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%; UNLV hits 35.2% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 44.0% and 36.4% of their shots

STANSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: STAN 15.5%, UNLV 17.1%. Forced: STAN 18.0%, UNLV 17.4%

UNLVSmall

Home court

UNLV at home. This season: UNLV 0-0 at home, STAN 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: STAN 35.5, UNLV 40.6. Allowed: STAN 40.3, UNLV 44.9

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: STAN 27%, UNLV 43%. Transfers in: STAN 3, UNLV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

STAN offense vs UNLV defense

Offense 88th of 366 against a defense 114th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

STAN has played the 76th-hardest schedule, UNLV the 87th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

UNLV offense vs STAN defense

Offense 90th of 366 against a defense 79th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: STAN 51.5 and allows 51.0; UNLV 53.5 and allows 52.3

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNLV -0.1	—
Total	—	152.4	—
Projected score	—	STAN 76.1 · UNLV 76.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STAN -0.0	—
1H total	71.2	—
1H projected score	STAN 35.6 · UNLV 35.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN WWWLL	17-16	52%	5-5	—
UNLV WWLWL	17-17	50%	8-7	—

Venue/role: STAN away; UNLV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OOOUO	15-18	45%	20-13
UNLV OUUUU	20-14	59%	17-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
UNLV	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Stanford

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs UCI	No recent meeting
Nov 19	vs SAC	W91–73WO
Nov 24	vs COLO	W77–68WU

UNLV

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs KU	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs EWU	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs RGV	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

STAN 0–1 UNLVUNLV leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · STAN 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2025-26	UNLV 75 @ STAN 74	STAN -9.5	UNLV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stanford

33 games played

Straight up

20-13

61% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1361%

W W W W L W W W L W W W W L W W L W L L L L L W W L L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1652%

L W L W L W W W L L W W L L W W L W L L W L W W W L L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

O O U O U U U O U O U U O U U U U O U U O O U O U U U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsPRST	W 89-79	-11.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsMONT	W 91-68	-12.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMTST	W 77-68	-14.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	vsUL	W 93-66	-20.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	vsSEA	L 69-77	-10.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 27	vsMINN	W 72-68	-2.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSLU	W 78-77	+1.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 155
Dec 1	vsPORT	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	156.5	O 166
Dec 7	vsUNLV	L 74-75	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 149
Dec 13	@SJSU	W 86-82	-8.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 17	vsUTA	W 76-60	-10.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 136
Dec 20	vsCOLO	W 77-68	+2.5	W +11.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 27	vsCSUN	W 88-80	-15.5	L −7.5	160.5	O 168
Dec 30	vsND	L 40-47	-6.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 87
Jan 2	vsLOU	W 80-76	+7.5	W +11.5	157.5	U 156
Jan 7	@VT	W 69-68	+3.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 10	@UVA	L 55-70	+12.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 125
Jan 14	vsUNC	W 95-90	+4.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 185
Jan 17	vsDUKE	L 50-80	+11.5	L −18.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 24	vsCAL	L 66-78	-4.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 144
Jan 28	@MIA	L 70-79	+9.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 31	@FSU	L 80-88	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 168
Feb 4	vsCLEM	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 130
Feb 7	vsGT	W 95-72	-9.5	W +13.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 11	@BC	W 70-64	-3.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 134
Feb 14	@WAKE	L 63-68	+4.5	L −0.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 21	@CAL	L 66-72	+1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 138
Feb 25	vsPITT	W 75-67	-8.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsSMU	W 95-75	+1.5	W +21.5	155.5	O 170
Mar 4	@ND	W 86-78	-1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 164
Mar 7	@NCSU	W 85-84	+9.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 169
Mar 10	vsPITT	L 63-64	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 127
Apr 2	vsWVU	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

−1.5

MONT

W 91-68

+10.5

MTST

W 77-68

−5.5

W 93-66

+6.5

SEA

L 69-77

−18.5

MINN

W 72-68

+1.5

SLU

W 78-77

+2.5

PORT

W 94-72

+2.5

UNLV

L 74-75

−10.5

SJSU

W 86-82

−4.5

UTA

W 76-60

+5.5

COLO

W 77-68

+11.5

CSUN

W 88-80

−7.5

L 40-47

−13.5

LOU

W 80-76

+11.5

W 69-68

+4.5

UVA

L 55-70

−2.5

UNC

W 95-90

+9.5

DUKE

L 50-80

−18.5

CAL

L 66-78

−16.5

MIA

L 70-79

+0.5

FSU

L 80-88

−4.5

CLEM

L 64-66

+1.5

W 95-72

+13.5

W 70-64

+2.5

WAKE

L 63-68

−0.5

CAL

L 66-72

−4.5

PITT

W 75-67

−0.5

SMU

W 95-75

+21.5

W 86-78

+6.5

NCSU

W 85-84

+10.5

PITT

L 63-64

−5.5

WVU

L 77-82

−2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

+23.5

MONT

W 91-68

+8.5

MTST

W 77-68

−3.5

W 93-66

+19.5

SEA

L 69-77

−6.5

MINN

W 72-68

−2.5

SLU

W 78-77

−5.5

PORT

W 94-72

+9.5

UNLV

L 74-75

−15.5

SJSU

W 86-82

+22.5

UTA

W 76-60

−3.5

COLO

W 77-68

−9.5

CSUN

W 88-80

+7.5

L 40-47

−56.5

LOU

W 80-76

−1.5

W 69-68

−11.5

UVA

L 55-70

−18.5

UNC

W 95-90

+37.5

DUKE

L 50-80

−18.5

CAL

L 66-78

−2.5

MIA

L 70-79

+1.5

FSU

L 80-88

+15.5

CLEM

L 64-66

−8.5

W 95-72

+15.5

W 70-64

−5.5

WAKE

L 63-68

−19.5

CAL

L 66-72

−11.5

PITT

W 75-67

+3.5

SMU

W 95-75

+14.5

W 86-78

+16.5

NCSU

W 85-84

+16.5

PITT

L 63-64

−9.5

WVU

L 77-82

+23.5

over 15under 18avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNLV

34 games played

Straight up

17-17

50% wins

Against the spread

17-17

50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-14

59% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1750%

L W L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W L L L L W W W L W L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1750%

L W L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1459%

O O O O O U O U U U U U O U O U O O U O O O O O O O U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUTM	L 81-86	-16.5	L −21.5	146.5	O 167
Nov 8	vsUTC	W 101-69	-7.5	W +24.5	155.5	O 170
Nov 11	vsMONT	L 93-102	-10.5	L −19.5	157.5	O 195
Nov 16	@MEM	W 92-78	+9.5	W +23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsJOES	W 99-85	-10.5	W +3.5	161.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsMD	L 67-74	+2.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsALA	L 76-115	+13.5	L −25.5	181.5	O 191
Nov 27	vsRUTG	L 65-80	-4.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 7	@STAN	W 75-74	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsTNST	L 60-63	-12.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 123
Dec 20	vsFRES	W 84-72	-8.5	W +3.5	159.5	U 156
Jan 3	vsAF	W 67-39	-14.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 106
Jan 6	@WYO	L 66-98	+4.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 9	@CSU	L 62-70	+6.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 132
Jan 13	vsBOIS	W 89-85	+1.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 174
Jan 17	@SJSU	W 76-62	-7.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 20	@USU	W 86-76	+15.5	W +25.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 24	vsSDSU	L 71-82	+3.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsUNM	L 61-89	+3.5	L −24.5	155.5	U 150
Jan 30	@NEV	L 76-89	+7.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 165
Feb 3	@FRES	L 96-98	-1.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 194
Feb 7	vsGCU	W 80-78	+2.5	W +4.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 10	vsSJSU	W 82-75	-12.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 157
Feb 13	@BOIS	W 86-83	+10.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 169
Feb 18	vsCSU	L 86-91	-2.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 177
Feb 21	@AF	W 91-66	-16.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 157
Feb 25	@GCU	L 67-80	+7.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 147
Feb 28	vsNEV	W 85-83	+1.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 168
Mar 3	vsUSU	W 92-65	+7.5	W +34.5	156.5	O 157
Mar 6	@SDSU	L 86-89	+9.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 175
Mar 11	vsWYO	W 73-70	-2.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 143
Mar 12	vsUSU	L 60-80	+8.5	L −11.5	156.5	U 140
Mar 17	@UCI	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 147
Mar 22	@TLSA	L 66-77	+4.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

−21.5

UTC

W 101-69

+24.5

MONT

L 93-102

−19.5

MEM

W 92-78

+23.5

JOES

W 99-85

+3.5

L 67-74

−4.5

ALA

L 76-115

−25.5

RUTG

L 65-80

−19.5

STAN

W 75-74

+10.5

TNST

L 60-63

−15.5

FRES

W 84-72

+3.5

W 67-39

+13.5

WYO

L 66-98

−27.5

CSU

L 62-70

−1.5

BOIS

W 89-85

+5.5

SJSU

W 76-62

+6.5

USU

W 86-76

+25.5

SDSU

L 71-82

−7.5

UNM

L 61-89

−24.5

NEV

L 76-89

−5.5

FRES

L 96-98

−3.5

GCU

W 80-78

+4.5

SJSU

W 82-75

−5.5

BOIS

W 86-83

+13.5

CSU

L 86-91

−7.5

W 91-66

+8.5

GCU

L 67-80

−5.5

NEV

W 85-83

+3.5

USU

W 92-65

+34.5

SDSU

L 86-89

+6.5

WYO

W 73-70

+0.5

USU

L 60-80

−11.5

UCI

W 75-72

+1.5

TLSA

L 66-77

−6.5

covered 17didn’t cover 17avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

+20.5

UTC

W 101-69

+14.5

MONT

L 93-102

+37.5

MEM

W 92-78

+6.5

JOES

W 99-85

+22.5

L 67-74

−23.5

ALA

L 76-115

+9.5

RUTG

L 65-80

−8.5

STAN

W 75-74

−15.5

TNST

L 60-63

−38.5

FRES

W 84-72

−3.5

W 67-39

−36.5

WYO

L 66-98

+9.5

CSU

L 62-70

−19.5

BOIS

W 89-85

+23.5

SJSU

W 76-62

−8.5

USU

W 86-76

+5.5

SDSU

L 71-82

+3.5

UNM

L 61-89

−5.5

NEV

L 76-89

+17.5

FRES

L 96-98

+40.5

GCU

W 80-78

+9.5

SJSU

W 82-75

+7.5

BOIS

W 86-83

+15.5

CSU

L 86-91

+29.5

W 91-66

+3.5

GCU

L 67-80

−3.5

NEV

W 85-83

+17.5

USU

W 92-65

+0.5

SDSU

L 86-89

+21.5

WYO

W 73-70

−10.5

USU

L 60-80

−16.5

UCI

W 75-72

−6.5

TLSA

L 66-77

−18.5

over 20under 14avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stanford has the better starters

Position by position: Stanford 2, UNLV 1, even 2

StanfordBetterUNLV

G C. Bliss TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 5.9 ast Score 84

STANSmall

G D. Williams15.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 64

F N. Townsend TR16.6 pts · 7.3 reb · 4.4 ast Score 93

Even

G A. Storr TR15.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

F A. Cammann6.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 56

STANSmall

G I. Williamson8.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25

F D. Young2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 26

UNLVBig

F T. Jones11.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 91

C A. Maurer TR7.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70

Even

F M. Thomas TR10.8 pts · 8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

StanfordBetterUNLV

STAN offense88th of 366 · +0.2

Even

UNLV defense114th of 366 · -1.5

STAN defense79th of 366 · +0.4

Even

UNLV offense90th of 366 · -0.2

Backcourt+2.6 · 1 player

Even

Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+4.6 · 4 players

Even

Frontcourt+4.3 · 2 players

Bench-0.1 · 4 players

Even

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSTAN betterUNLV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Stanford

Guards

C. Bliss40 min · TRE. Kitch1 minA. BatsonNewM. JonesNewJ. PriceNewI. RogersNew

Forwards

N. Townsend34 min · TRA. Cammann22 minD. Young15 minK. Skrinda6 minE. Stinson5 minT. Toure4 min

Centers

A. Maurer18 min · TR

UNLV

Guards

D. Williams33 minA. Storr26 min · TRI. Williamson23 minS. Mack16 min · TRC. Miles14 min · TRJ. Cunningham3 min

Forwards

T. Jones27 minM. Thomas27 min · TRT. Harris13 min · TRM. Loum11 min · TRJ. KissNew

Centers

J. Foumena10 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

STAN76.0 #142

UNLV78.6 #88

Points per possession

STAN1.12 #108

UNLV1.10 #134

Pace (possessions)

STAN68.1 #225

UNLV71.3 #57

Shooting

Effective FG%

STAN51.5 #173

UNLV53.5 #81

3-point %

STAN35.2 #103

UNLV35.2 #102

3-point attempt rate

STAN44.0 #89

UNLV36.4 #243

Free throw rate

STAN35.5 #165

UNLV40.6 #51

Possessions

Turnover rate

STAN15.5 #105

UNLV17.1 #209

Offensive rebound rate

STAN32.5 #109

UNLV30.2 #189

Assists per game

STAN11.8 #299

UNLV14.1 #137

Defense

Points allowed

STAN73.0 #132

UNLV79.3 #306

Points allowed per possession

STAN1.07 #136

UNLV1.11 #250

Opponent effective FG%

STAN51.0 #158

UNLV52.3 #231

Opponent 3-point %

STAN33.0 #118

UNLV35.2 #259

Turnovers forced

STAN18.0 #99

UNLV17.4 #127

Defensive rebound rate

STAN70.2 #149

UNLV68.0 #256

Steals per game

STAN7.8 #53

UNLV7.3 #102

Blocks per game

STAN3.9 #93

UNLV4.7 #26

STAN		UNLV
Scoring
76.0 #142	Points per game	78.6 #88
1.12 #108	Points per possession	1.10 #134
68.1 #225	Pace (possessions)	71.3 #57
Shooting
51.5 #173	Effective FG%	53.5 #81
35.2 #103	3-point %	35.2 #102
44.0 #89	3-point attempt rate	36.4 #243
35.5 #165	Free throw rate	40.6 #51
Possessions
15.5 #105	Turnover rate	17.1 #209
32.5 #109	Offensive rebound rate	30.2 #189
11.8 #299	Assists per game	14.1 #137
Defense
73.0 #132	Points allowed	79.3 #306
1.07 #136	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #250
51.0 #158	Opponent effective FG%	52.3 #231
33.0 #118	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #259
18.0 #99	Turnovers forced	17.4 #127
70.2 #149	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #256
7.8 #53	Steals per game	7.3 #102
3.9 #93	Blocks per game	4.7 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stanford

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia77–82
Lvs Pitt63–64
W@ NC State85–84
W@ Notre Dame86–78
Wvs SMU95–75

A week or more of rest.

UNLV

17-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Tulsa66–77
W@ UC Irvine75–72
Lvs Utah State60–80
Wvs Wyoming73–70
L@ San Diego St86–89

A week or more of rest.

Stanford Cardinal at UNLV Rebels

What could decide it: STAN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Stanford

UNLV

Stanford has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Stanford

UNLV