1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. UNLV vs KU
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

UNLV Rebels vs Kansas Jayhawks

Michelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site
#98UNLVUNLV
vs
#16KUKansas AP #17
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNLVThis seasonKU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KU 85–70 · win probability KU 91%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: KU has more of the edges

UNLV 2, KU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
KUSmall
Three-pointers
UNLV hits 35.2% and allows 35.2%; KU hits 34.6% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 36.4% and 35.2% of their shots
KUSmall
KU offense vs UNLV defense
Offense 17th of 366 against a defense 114th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UNLV has played the 87th-hardest schedule, KU the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
KUSmall
UNLV offense vs KU defense
Offense 90th of 366 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UNLV plays 71.3 a game (57th fastest), KU 68.8 (193rd). Faster games mean more points
UNLVSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNLV 43%, KU 9%. Transfers in: UNLV 7, KU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
KUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNLV 53.5 and allows 52.3; KU 51.2 and allows 45.0
KUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNLV 40.6, KU 32.2. Allowed: UNLV 44.9, KU 27.4
UNLVSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNLV 17.1%, KU 15.6%. Forced: UNLV 17.4%, KU 13.8%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNLV 30.2%, KU 29.3%. Defensive: UNLV 68.0%, KU 70.1%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—KU -15.1—
Total—154.4—
Projected score—UNLV 69.7 · KU 84.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadKU -8.8—
1H total72.2—
1H projected scoreUNLV 31.7 · KU 40.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Kansas has the better starters

Position by position: UNLV 0, Kansas 3, even 2
UNLVBetterKansas
G D. Williams15.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 64
KUSmall
G L. Blyden TR16.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.5 ast Score 85
G A. Storr TR15.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97
Even
G D. Parker TR18.6 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
G I. Williamson8.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25
KUBig
F K. Dawes TR12.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91
F T. Jones11.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 91
Even
F T. Kaufman-Renn TR14.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 98
F M. Thomas TR10.8 pts · 8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
KUSmall
C C. Reeves TR11 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 94
UNLVBetterKansas
UNLV offense90th of 366 · -0.2
KUSmall
KU defense15th of 366 · +6.3
UNLV defense114th of 366 · -1.5
KUSmall
KU offense17th of 366 · +8.6
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
KUBig
Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt+4.3 · 2 players
KUBig
Frontcourt+13.0 · 3 players
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
KUSmall
Bench+0.1 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUNLV betterKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UNLV
Guards
D. Williams33 minA. Storr26 min · TRI. Williamson23 minS. Mack16 min · TRC. Miles14 min · TRJ. Cunningham3 min
Forwards
T. Jones27 minM. Thomas27 min · TRT. Harris13 min · TRM. Loum11 min · TRJ. KissNew
Centers
J. Foumena10 min · TR
Kansas
Guards
L. Blyden34 min · TRD. Parker30 min · TRK. Rosario12 minW. Thengvall2 minT. StokesNewT. PerryNew
Forwards
K. Dawes31 min · TRT. Kaufman-Renn28 min · TRD. AdkinsNewA. RichmondNewG. MordiniNew
Centers
C. Reeves21 min · TRP. Mbiya5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNLVKU
Scoring
78.6 #88Points per game75.1 #161
1.10 #134Points per possession1.09 #152
71.3 #57Pace (possessions)68.8 #193
Shooting
53.5 #81Effective FG%51.2 #186
35.2 #1023-point %34.6 #139
36.4 #2433-point attempt rate35.2 #268
40.6 #51Free throw rate32.2 #255
Possessions
17.1 #209Turnover rate15.6 #111
30.2 #189Offensive rebound rate29.3 #227
14.1 #137Assists per game13.9 #150
Defense
79.3 #306Points allowed69.1 #47
1.11 #250Points allowed per possession1.00 #28
52.3 #231Opponent effective FG%45.0 #2
35.2 #259Opponent 3-point %30.6 #24
17.4 #127Turnovers forced13.8 #340
68.0 #256Defensive rebound rate70.1 #152
7.3 #102Steals per game5.4 #310
4.7 #26Blocks per game5.8 #6
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNLV

17-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Tulsa66–77
  • W@ UC Irvine75–72
  • Lvs Utah State60–80
  • Wvs Wyoming73–70
  • L@ San Diego St86–89

A week or more of rest.

Kansas

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St John's65–67
  • Wvs CA Baptist68–60
  • Lvs Houston47–69
  • Wvs TCU78–73
  • Wvs Kansas St104–85

A week or more of rest.