Alabama State Hornets at UC Davis Aggies: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 9:00 PM ETUniversity Credit Union Center · at UC Davis

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alabama St and UC Davis
ALST	This season	UCD
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCD 80–69 · win probability UCD 84%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCD has more of the edges

ALST 1, UCD 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

ALST has played the 333rd-hardest schedule, UCD the 189th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UCDBig

UCD offense vs ALST defense

Offense 208th of 366 against a defense 330th, on the model’s ratings

UCDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ALST 47.1 and allows 52.2; UCD 51.8 and allows 51.7

UCDSmall

ALST offense vs UCD defense

Offense 269th of 366 against a defense 171st, on the model’s ratings

UCDSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ALST 34.9, UCD 40.5. Allowed: ALST 42.3, UCD 39.1

UCDSmall

Three-pointers

ALST hits 31.8% and allows 34.2%; UCD hits 34.4% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 38.5% and 43.5% of their shots

ALSTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ALST 31.9%, UCD 25.2%. Defensive: ALST 68.5%, UCD 69.5%

UCDSmall

Home court

UCD at home. This season: UCD 0-0 at home, ALST 0-0 away

UCDSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ALST 32%, UCD 57%. Transfers in: ALST 3, UCD 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ALST 18.3%, UCD 17.9%. Forced: ALST 18.7%, UCD 19.8%

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: ALST plays 71.3 a game (59th fastest), UCD 71.8 (39th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCD -11.5	—
Total	—	148.7	—
Projected score	—	ALST 68.6 · UCD 80.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCD -6.7	—
1H total	69.5	—
1H projected score	ALST 31.4 · UCD 38.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALST LWLLL	13-18	42%	8-11	—
UCD LWLWL	17-13	57%	9-5	—

Venue/role: ALST away; UCD home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALST UOUUO	14-17	45%	9-22
UCD OUOOU	17-13	57%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALST	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
UCD	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alabama St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ FRES	No recent meeting
Nov 23	@ CAL	No recent meeting
Dec 7	@ OU	No recent meeting

UC Davis

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs OMA	No recent meeting
Nov 26	vs JXST	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs PAC	W82–61WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama St

31 games played

Straight up

9-22

29% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2229%

L W L L W L L L L L L L W L L W L W L L W L L W W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1745%

U U O U U O O U O U O U O O U U U O O U O U U U O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@FSU	L 64-101	+24.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@UAB	W 77-74	+19.5	W +22.5	164.5	U 151
Nov 17	@COLO	L 66-94	+22.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 19	@AF	L 64-66	+2.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsIUIN	W 101-80	+2.5	W +23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	vsSIUE	L 68-83	+1.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 26	@UNM	L 87-93	+19.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 180
Dec 7	@UTM	L 64-74	+6.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 11	@MIZ	L 77-85	+26.5	W +18.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 17	@CIN	L 51-88	+21.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 139
Dec 22	@MEM	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 29	@MSST	L 56-94	+17.5	L −20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@MVSU	W 89-69	-13.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 5	@UAPB	L 79-90	-1.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsJKST	L 64-75	-7.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 12	vsALCN	W 81-66	-9.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 19	vsAAMU	L 69-73	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 142
Jan 24	@PV	W 95-80	-1.5	W +13.5	158.5	O 175
Jan 27	@TXSO	L 64-96	+2.5	L −29.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBCU	L 54-69	+1.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 123
Feb 2	vsFAMU	W 79-66	-3.5	W +9.5	139.5	O 145
Feb 7	@GRAM	L 47-57	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 104
Feb 9	@SOU	L 68-69	+6.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsUAPB	W 79-61	-3.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 140
Feb 16	vsMVSU	W 92-55	-16.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 19	@BCU	L 71-82	+5.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 21	@FAMU	L 63-76	-1.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 139
Feb 28	@AAMU	W 89-88	+1.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 177
Mar 3	vsSOU	L 64-71	-1.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 135
Mar 5	vsGRAM	L 63-65	-2.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 128
Mar 9	vsALCN	L 65-77	-7.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−12.5

UAB

W 77-74

+22.5

COLO

L 66-94

−5.5

L 64-66

+0.5

IUIN

W 101-80

+23.5

SIUE

L 68-83

−13.5

UNM

L 87-93

+13.5

UTM

L 64-74

−3.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+18.5

CIN

L 51-88

−15.5

MEM

L 67-88

−0.5

MSST

L 56-94

−20.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+6.5

UAPB

L 79-90

−12.5

JKST

L 64-75

−18.5

ALCN

W 81-66

+5.5

AAMU

L 69-73

−5.5

W 95-80

+13.5

TXSO

L 64-96

−29.5

BCU

L 54-69

−13.5

FAMU

W 79-66

+9.5

GRAM

L 47-57

−5.5

SOU

L 68-69

+5.5

UAPB

W 79-61

+14.5

MVSU

W 92-55

+20.5

BCU

L 71-82

−5.5

FAMU

L 63-76

−14.5

AAMU

W 89-88

+2.5

SOU

L 64-71

−8.5

GRAM

L 63-65

−4.5

ALCN

L 65-77

−19.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−1.5

UAB

W 77-74

−13.5

COLO

L 66-94

+3.5

L 64-66

−8.5

IUIN

W 101-80

−0.5

SIUE

L 68-83

+8.5

UNM

L 87-93

+31.5

UTM

L 64-74

−6.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+6.5

CIN

L 51-88

−6.5

MEM

L 67-88

+3.5

MSST

L 56-94

−4.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+13.5

UAPB

L 79-90

+9.5

JKST

L 64-75

−14.5

ALCN

W 81-66

−4.5

AAMU

L 69-73

−4.5

W 95-80

+16.5

TXSO

L 64-96

+4.5

BCU

L 54-69

−29.5

FAMU

W 79-66

+5.5

GRAM

L 47-57

−40.5

SOU

L 68-69

−12.5

UAPB

W 79-61

−9.5

MVSU

W 92-55

+4.5

BCU

L 71-82

+5.5

FAMU

L 63-76

−5.5

AAMU

W 89-88

+33.5

SOU

L 64-71

−18.5

GRAM

L 63-65

−16.5

ALCN

L 65-77

+0.5

over 14under 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC Davis

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

W L W W L W L L L W W L W L W W L W L W W W L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W L L W L W–L W W W L W L W W L L L W W W L W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

O U U O O U–O O O O O O U U U O U O U O U U U O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsNDSU	W 80-68	-1.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	@PORT	L 63-67	+1.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsSAC	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 18	@NEV	W 75-71	+12.5	W +16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 21	@COLO	L 79-95	+14.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 174
Nov 24	vsUL	W 77-56	-9.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 133
Dec 4	@HAW	L 69-75	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	@ORE	L 62-104	+13.5	L −28.5	146.5	O 166
Dec 17	vsSEA	L 78-79	+2.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 157
Dec 21	@IDST	W 93-83	+5.5	W +15.5	143.5	O 176
Jan 1	vsCSUN	W 89-80	-3.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 169
Jan 3	vsCSUB	L 79-81	-9.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 160
Jan 8	@UCSB	W 93-86	+4.5	W +11.5	147.5	O 179
Jan 10	@CP	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	168.5	U 162
Jan 15	vsCSUF	W 74-69	-3.5	W +1.5	166.5	U 143
Jan 17	vsUCI	W 75-72	+3.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 147
Jan 22	vsUCSD	L 74-80	+1.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsUCR	W 74-66	-9.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 140
Jan 29	@CSUN	L 78-94	+3.5	L −12.5	163.5	O 172
Jan 31	@CSUB	W 80-72	-5.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 152
Feb 5	vsUCSB	W 85-75	+3.5	W +13.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 7	vsCP	W 67-58	-5.5	W +3.5	169.5	U 125
Feb 12	@UCSD	L 51-68	+5.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsLBSU	W 71-54	-4.5	W +12.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 19	@CSUF	L 92-93	+1.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 185
Feb 21	@UCR	W 78-73	-2.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 151
Feb 26	vsHAW	L 73-77	+1.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 150
Mar 5	@LBSU	W 76-70	-1.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 146
Mar 7	@UCI	L 69-79	+7.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Mar 11	vsUCSB	W 79-73	+4.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 152
Mar 12	vsCSUF	L 70-82	+1.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+10.5

PORT

L 63-67

−2.5

SAC

W 77-73

−0.5

NEV

W 75-71

+16.5

COLO

L 79-95

−1.5

W 77-56

+11.5

ORE

L 62-104

−28.5

SEA

L 78-79

+1.5

IDST

W 93-83

+15.5

CSUN

W 89-80

+5.5

CSUB

L 79-81

−11.5

UCSB

W 93-86

+11.5

L 78-84

−7.5

CSUF

W 74-69

+1.5

UCI

W 75-72

+6.5

UCSD

L 74-80

−4.5

UCR

W 74-66

−1.5

CSUN

L 78-94

−12.5

CSUB

W 80-72

+2.5

UCSB

W 85-75

+13.5

W 67-58

+3.5

UCSD

L 51-68

−11.5

LBSU

W 71-54

+12.5

CSUF

L 92-93

+0.5

UCR

W 78-73

+2.5

HAW

L 73-77

−2.5

LBSU

W 76-70

+4.5

UCI

L 69-79

−2.5

UCSB

W 79-73

+10.5

CSUF

L 70-82

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+5.5

PORT

L 63-67

−21.5

SAC

W 77-73

−1.5

NEV

W 75-71

+2.5

COLO

L 79-95

+21.5

W 77-56

−3.5

ORE

L 62-104

+19.5

SEA

L 78-79

+13.5

IDST

W 93-83

+32.5

CSUN

W 89-80

+6.5

CSUB

L 79-81

+8.5

UCSB

W 93-86

+31.5

L 78-84

−6.5

CSUF

W 74-69

−23.5

UCI

W 75-72

−1.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+1.5

UCR

W 74-66

−9.5

CSUN

L 78-94

+8.5

CSUB

W 80-72

−0.5

UCSB

W 85-75

+12.5

W 67-58

−44.5

UCSD

L 51-68

−31.5

LBSU

W 71-54

−24.5

CSUF

L 92-93

+28.5

UCR

W 78-73

+1.5

HAW

L 73-77

+3.5

LBSU

W 76-70

−3.5

UCI

L 69-79

+3.5

UCSB

W 79-73

+12.5

CSUF

L 70-82

−3.5

over 17under 13avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alabama St has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama St 2, UC Davis 1, even 2

Alabama StBetterUC Davis

G M. James TR21 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 77

ALSTSmall

G C. Sevilla13.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 45

G A. Brown13.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46

Even

G B. Fagbemi6.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.3 ast Score 53

G T. Miller7 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

No call

F I. Chappell8.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26

F J. Walker4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 19

UCDSmall

F V. Abosi TR4.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 43

F J. Scott TR3.7 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 33

ALSTSmall

F O. Suljanovic5.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 12

Alabama StBetterUC Davis

ALST offense269th of 366 · -8.2

UCDSmall

UCD defense171st of 366 · -3.9

ALST defense330th of 366 · -8.6

UCDSmall

UCD offense208th of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-1.0 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

ALSTSmall

Frontcourt-3.5 · 3 players

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

ALSTSmall

Bench-2.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestALST betterUCD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alabama St

Guards

M. James37 min · TRA. Brown26 minT. Miller22 minD. BondsNewP. McMillanNewJ. RogersNew

Forwards

J. Walker16 minJ. Scott12 min · TRI. Barganier1 min · TRP. MensahNewM. DixonNewT. HamptonNew

UC Davis

Guards

C. Sevilla32 minB. Fagbemi26 minJ. Stokes14 minC. Rawlins4 minC. Massamba4 min · TRY. Esso-EssisNew

Forwards

I. Chappell24 minV. Abosi17 min · TRO. Suljanovic14 minJ. Margrave10 min · TRN. NobleNewJ. DabrowskiNew

Centers

A. Szymczyk7 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ALST71.5 #260

UCD76.1 #139

Points per possession

ALST1.01 #318

UCD1.06 #234

Pace (possessions)

ALST71.3 #59

UCD71.8 #39

Shooting

Effective FG%

ALST47.1 #335

UCD51.8 #157

3-point %

ALST31.8 #288

UCD34.4 #149

3-point attempt rate

ALST38.5 #200

UCD43.5 #102

Free throw rate

ALST34.9 #185

UCD40.5 #53

Possessions

Turnover rate

ALST18.3 #289

UCD17.9 #267

Offensive rebound rate

ALST31.9 #128

UCD25.2 #334

Assists per game

ALST11.7 #303

UCD15.1 #83

Defense

Points allowed

ALST77.6 #256

UCD76.0 #217

Points allowed per possession

ALST1.09 #185

UCD1.06 #104

Opponent effective FG%

ALST52.2 #222

UCD51.7 #197

Opponent 3-point %

ALST34.2 #194

UCD33.8 #172

Turnovers forced

ALST18.7 #63

UCD19.8 #29

Defensive rebound rate

ALST68.5 #230

UCD69.5 #182

Steals per game

ALST7.9 #50

UCD7.5 #81

Blocks per game

ALST3.8 #102

UCD2.7 #276

ALST		UCD
Scoring
71.5 #260	Points per game	76.1 #139
1.01 #318	Points per possession	1.06 #234
71.3 #59	Pace (possessions)	71.8 #39
Shooting
47.1 #335	Effective FG%	51.8 #157
31.8 #288	3-point %	34.4 #149
38.5 #200	3-point attempt rate	43.5 #102
34.9 #185	Free throw rate	40.5 #53
Possessions
18.3 #289	Turnover rate	17.9 #267
31.9 #128	Offensive rebound rate	25.2 #334
11.7 #303	Assists per game	15.1 #83
Defense
77.6 #256	Points allowed	76.0 #217
1.09 #185	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #104
52.2 #222	Opponent effective FG%	51.7 #197
34.2 #194	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #172
18.7 #63	Turnovers forced	19.8 #29
68.5 #230	Defensive rebound rate	69.5 #182
7.9 #50	Steals per game	7.5 #81
3.8 #102	Blocks per game	2.7 #276

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama St

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alcorn St65–77
Lvs Grambling63–65
Lvs Southern64–71
W@ Alabama A&M89–88
L@ Florida A&M63–76

A week or more of rest.

UC Davis

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Fullerton70–82
Wvs Santa Barbara79–73
L@ UC Irvine69–79
W@ Long Beach St76–70
Lvs Hawai'i73–77

A week or more of rest.

Alabama State Hornets at UC Davis Aggies

What could decide it: UCD has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama St

UC Davis

Alabama St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alabama St

UC Davis