1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. OMA vs UCD
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Omaha Mavericks vs UC Davis Aggies

Resorts World Event Center · Neutral site
#279OMAOmaha
vs
#182UCDUC Davis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OMAThis seasonUCD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCD 77–71 · win probability UCD 70%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCD has more of the edges

OMA 1, UCD 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
OMA has played the 287th-hardest schedule, UCD the 189th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCDSmall
UCD offense vs OMA defense
Offense 208th of 366 against a defense 306th, on the model’s ratings
UCDSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OMA 16.1%, UCD 17.9%. Forced: OMA 14.1%, UCD 19.8%
UCDSmall
OMA offense vs UCD defense
Offense 247th of 366 against a defense 171st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: OMA plays 68.9 a game (184th fastest), UCD 71.8 (39th). Faster games mean more points
UCDSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OMA 23%, UCD 57%. Transfers in: OMA 4, UCD 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
OMASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OMA 25.5%, UCD 25.2%. Defensive: OMA 71.3%, UCD 69.5%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: OMA 52.2 and allows 52.7; UCD 51.8 and allows 51.7
Even
Three-pointers
OMA hits 34.0% and allows 32.9%; UCD hits 34.4% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 40.9% and 43.5% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: OMA 34.5, UCD 40.5. Allowed: OMA 33.6, UCD 39.1
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCD -6.0—
Total—148.1—
Projected score—OMA 71 · UCD 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCD -3.4—
1H total69.2—
1H projected scoreOMA 32.9 · UCD 36.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Omaha 1, UC Davis 1, even 3
OmahaBetterUC Davis
G G. Stubblefield9.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 64
OMASmall
G C. Sevilla13.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 45
G C. Crosby TR2.5 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 24
UCDSmall
G B. Fagbemi6.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.3 ast Score 53
G A. Skradis0.4 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F I. Chappell8.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26
F C. Dockery TR7.3 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 41
Even
F V. Abosi TR4.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 43
F B. Scholl3.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 26
Even
F O. Suljanovic5.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 12
OmahaBetterUC Davis
OMA offense247th of 366 · -7.5
UCDSmall
UCD defense171st of 366 · -3.9
OMA defense306th of 366 · -7.8
UCDSmall
UCD offense208th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-0.7 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players
OMASmall
Frontcourt-3.5 · 3 players
Bench-0.0 · 2 players
OMASmall
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestOMA betterUCD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Omaha
Guards
G. Stubblefield29 minC. Crosby9 min · TRA. Skradis2 minD. Thompson1 min · TRB. OrgilboldNewC. CurtisNew
Forwards
C. Dockery22 min · TRB. Scholl14 minJ. Bolis2 min · TRD. PleasantNewE. SheatsNewG. BakerNew
Centers
I. OndekaneNewH. BukingaNew
UC Davis
Guards
C. Sevilla32 minB. Fagbemi26 minJ. Stokes14 minC. Rawlins4 minC. Massamba4 min · TRY. Esso-EssisNew
Forwards
I. Chappell24 minV. Abosi17 min · TRO. Suljanovic14 minJ. Margrave10 min · TRN. NobleNewJ. DabrowskiNew
Centers
A. Szymczyk7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OMAUCD
Scoring
73.9 #202Points per game76.1 #139
1.07 #201Points per possession1.06 #234
68.9 #184Pace (possessions)71.8 #39
Shooting
52.2 #139Effective FG%51.8 #157
34.0 #1693-point %34.4 #149
40.9 #1503-point attempt rate43.5 #102
34.5 #196Free throw rate40.5 #53
Possessions
16.1 #146Turnover rate17.9 #267
25.5 #331Offensive rebound rate25.2 #334
12.1 #276Assists per game15.1 #83
Defense
77.7 #259Points allowed76.0 #217
1.13 #278Points allowed per possession1.06 #104
52.7 #258Opponent effective FG%51.7 #197
32.9 #114Opponent 3-point %33.8 #172
14.1 #333Turnovers forced19.8 #29
71.3 #90Defensive rebound rate69.5 #182
5.7 #277Steals per game7.5 #81
3.0 #234Blocks per game2.7 #276
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Omaha

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Dakota St50–74
  • Wvs South Dakota76–62
  • L@ St Thomas53–68
  • L@ South Dakota72–89
  • Wvs Oral Roberts80–71

A week or more of rest.

UC Davis

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fullerton70–82
  • Wvs Santa Barbara79–73
  • L@ UC Irvine69–79
  • W@ Long Beach St76–70
  • Lvs Hawai'i73–77

A week or more of rest.