1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 15
  3. CP @ MTST
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 15

Cal Poly Mustangs at Montana State Bobcats

Worthington Arena · at Montana St
#164CPCal Poly
@
#162MTSTMontana St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CPThis seasonMTST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MTST 82–78 · win probability MTST 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 159.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MTST has more of the edges

CP 1, MTST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MTSTBig
MTST offense vs CP defense
Offense 190th of 366 against a defense 343rd, on the model’s ratings
MTSTBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CP 19.8%, MTST 14.8%. Forced: CP 16.3%, MTST 15.6%
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: CP plays 76.4 a game (1st fastest), MTST 67.9 (233rd). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
CP has played the 170th-hardest schedule, MTST the 278th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MTSTSmall
Three-pointers
CP hits 33.0% and allows 34.7%; MTST hits 36.1% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 52.6% and 44.6% of their shots
MTSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CP 51.5 and allows 53.8; MTST 53.6 and allows 51.6
CPSmall
CP offense vs MTST defense
Offense 91st of 366 against a defense 155th, on the model’s ratings
MTSTSmall
Home court
MTST at home. This season: MTST 0-0 at home, CP 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CP 100%, MTST 89%. Transfers in: CP 0, MTST 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CP 30.0%, MTST 27.0%. Defensive: CP 70.4%, MTST 71.8%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CP 34.9, MTST 30.2. Allowed: CP 34.1, MTST 29.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MTST -3.5—
Total—159.9—
Projected score—CP 78.2 · MTST 81.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMTST -2.0—
1H total74.7—
1H projected scoreCP 36.3 · MTST 38.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Montana St has the better starters

Position by position: Cal Poly 0, Montana St 2, even 3
Cal PolyBetterMontana St
G H. Mousa20.3 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 96
Even
G J. Miller15.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82
G C. Ward14.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 58
No call
G C. Holden8.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked
G G. Vasilic7.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21
MTSTBig
G J. Davis9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
G J. Davis5.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
MTSTBig
G S. Amunrud7.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
G K. Elliott5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 33
Even
F C. King12.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 41
Cal PolyBetterMontana St
CP offense91st of 366 · -0.2
CPSmall
MTST defense155th of 366 · -3.4
CP defense343rd of 366 · -9.2
MTSTBig
MTST offense190th of 366 · -5.8
Backcourt-1.4 · 5 players
Even
Backcourt-0.8 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-0.9 · 1 player
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
Even
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCP betterMTST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Cal Poly
Guards
H. Mousa32 minC. Ward30 minG. Vasilic23 minJ. Davis21 minK. Elliott18 minJ. Esso Essis17 min
Forwards
A. Goode16 minT. Plumtree13 minA. Assran13 minA. Price6 minB. FreemanNew
Montana St
Guards
J. Miller36 minC. Holden28 minJ. Davis25 minS. Amunrud21 minH. Keene11 minD. Slater7 min · TR
Forwards
C. King29 minJ. Steppe15 minW. Mbatch11 minL. Praytor4 min · TRC. Rutherfurd1 minJ. StewardNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CPMTST
Scoring
81.3 #42Points per game75.7 #151
1.06 #222Points per possession1.12 #107
76.4 #1Pace (possessions)67.9 #233
Shooting
51.5 #170Effective FG%53.6 #80
33.0 #2283-point %36.1 #52
52.6 #53-point attempt rate44.6 #76
34.9 #182Free throw rate30.2 #303
Possessions
19.8 #345Turnover rate14.8 #53
30.0 #202Offensive rebound rate27.0 #292
13.3 #194Assists per game10.6 #347
Defense
85.3 #360Points allowed73.5 #144
1.12 #274Points allowed per possession1.08 #158
53.8 #292Opponent effective FG%51.6 #193
34.7 #231Opponent 3-point %34.3 #198
16.3 #203Turnovers forced15.6 #242
70.4 #141Defensive rebound rate71.8 #75
6.4 #188Steals per game6.5 #171
2.2 #337Blocks per game2.8 #263
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cal Poly

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC San Diego69–72
  • Wvs Bakersfield108–76
  • L@ UC Irvine85–107
  • L@ UC San Diego64–80
  • Wvs Long Beach St102–92

A week or more of rest.

Montana St

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho74–78
  • W@ N Arizona76–65
  • Wvs Sacramento St82–61
  • Wvs Portland St84–69
  • L@ Idaho St76–91

A week or more of rest.