Lindenwood Lions vs New Haven Chargers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 1:00 PM ETStony Brook Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lindenwood Lions and New Haven
LIN	This season	NHVN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LIN 75–66 · win probability LIN 76%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LIN has more of the edges

LIN 3, NHVN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: LIN plays 73.0 a game (18th fastest), NHVN 63.5 (363rd). Faster games mean more points

LINSmall

NHVN offense vs LIN defense

Offense 362nd of 366 against a defense 261st, on the model’s ratings

LINSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIN 48.0 and allows 49.1; NHVN 48.7 and allows 51.8

LINSmall

Three-pointers

LIN hits 29.4% and allows 32.4%; NHVN hits 30.2% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 30.7% and 39.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

LIN has played the 357th-hardest schedule, NHVN the 307th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NHVNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIN 0%, NHVN 27%. Transfers in: LIN 0, NHVN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

LIN offense vs NHVN defense

Offense 250th of 366 against a defense 285th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIN 33.3%, NHVN 21.5%. Defensive: LIN 68.3%, NHVN 73.2%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIN 38.6, NHVN 31.7. Allowed: LIN 37.4, NHVN 27.7

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIN 18.7%, NHVN 17.8%. Forced: LIN 18.4%, NHVN 17.1%

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LIN -8.2	—
Total	—	141.0	—
Projected score	—	LIN 74.6 · NHVN 66.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LIN -5.0	—
1H total	66.0	—
1H projected score	LIN 35.5 · NHVN 30.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LIN LLWWW	13-17	43%	3-0	—
NHVN WWLLW	15-13	54%	—	—

Venue/role: LIN neutral site; NHVN neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIN UUOUU	17-13	57%	15-15
NHVN UOUUU	8-20	29%	11-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NHVN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lindenwood Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ STBK	No recent meeting
Nov 30	@ MOST	L65–70LU
Dec 5	vs OMA	W72–70WU

New Haven

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ DSU	W65–52WU
Dec 4	vs COLU	L53–71LU
Dec 9	vs NJIT	L64–70LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lindenwood Lions

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L L W L L W W W W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L L W L W W W L W L W L L L W L W L W L L W L L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O U U U O O O U U O U O O U O O U O O O O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@TTU	L 60-98	+29.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 10	@SLU	L 66-109	+24.5	L −18.5	165.5	O 175
Nov 14	vsCHSO	W 83-77	-2.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 160
Nov 16	@AAMU	L 65-74	+3.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 20	@IU	L 53-73	+32.5	W +12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 24	vsKC	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	152.5	U 147
Dec 2	@NIU	W 99-64	+3.5	W +38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@EIU	W 82-74	-8.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 18	vsWIU	W 92-76	-12.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 23	@MOST	L 65-70	+3.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 1	vsMORE	W 77-64	-6.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 3	vsUSI	W 83-80	-9.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 6	@SIUE	L 62-66	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsLR	L 74-82	-6.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	@SEMO	W 88-76	+6.5	W +18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	@UTM	L 55-69	+2.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 124
Jan 22	vsTNTC	W 89-68	-8.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsTNST	L 86-96	-4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 29	@USI	W 73-60	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@MORE	W 79-78	-1.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 3	vsSIUE	L 72-78	-4.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 5	@LR	W 79-74	-1.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 12	vsUTM	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsSEMO	L 61-73	-1.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 19	@TNST	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 21	@TNTC	L 57-72	-1.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	vsEIU	L 67-71	-7.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@WIU	W 91-69	-11.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 4	vsLR	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 5	vsSEMO	L 66-68	+3.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

−8.5

SLU

L 66-109

−18.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+3.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−5.5

L 53-73

+12.5

W 80-67

+8.5

NIU

W 99-64

+38.5

EIU

W 82-74

−0.5

WIU

W 92-76

+3.5

MOST

L 65-70

−1.5

W 77-64

+6.5

USI

W 83-80

−6.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−2.5

L 74-82

−14.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+18.5

UTM

L 55-69

−11.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+12.5

TNST

L 86-96

−14.5

USI

W 73-60

+8.5

W 79-78

−0.5

SIUE

L 72-78

−10.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

−0.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−13.5

TNST

L 80-89

−5.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−16.5

EIU

L 67-71

−11.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

+4.5

SEMO

L 66-68

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

+11.5

SLU

L 66-109

+9.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+4.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−10.5

L 53-73

−29.5

W 80-67

−5.5

NIU

W 99-64

+15.5

EIU

W 82-74

+10.5

WIU

W 92-76

+21.5

MOST

L 65-70

−10.5

W 77-64

−6.5

USI

W 83-80

+15.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−14.5

L 74-82

+6.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+9.5

UTM

L 55-69

−23.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+5.5

TNST

L 86-96

+21.5

USI

W 73-60

−17.5

W 79-78

+8.5

SIUE

L 72-78

+9.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

+3.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−20.5

TNST

L 80-89

+9.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−22.5

EIU

L 67-71

−6.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

−14.5

SEMO

L 66-68

−14.5

over 17under 13avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Haven

28 games played

Straight up

11-17

39% wins

Against the spread

15-13

54% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-20

29% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1739%

L L L W W L L L L L W L L W W W L L W L L L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1354%

W L L W W W W L L L W L L W W W L L W W L L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-2029%

U U U U U U O O U O U O U U O U U U O U U O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CONN	L 55-79	+42.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 134
Nov 7	vsCOLU	L 53-71	+7.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 8	vsPSU	L 43-87	+18.5	L −25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 10	@UML	W 73-67	+10.5	W +16.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 15	vsDSU	W 65-52	-1.5	W +11.5	130.5	U 117
Nov 18	@HALL	L 45-68	+25.5	W +2.5	129.5	U 113
Dec 6	@BC	L 63-67	+17.5	W +13.5	126.5	O 130
Dec 10	@NJIT	L 64-70	-2.5	L −8.5	130.5	O 134
Dec 22	@FOR	L 47-65	+13.5	L −4.5	127.5	U 112
Dec 29	@VAN	L 53-96	+39.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 2	@STO	W 70-55	+1.5	W +16.5	128.5	U 125
Jan 4	@CCSU	L 61-72	+7.5	L −3.5	130.5	O 133
Jan 8	@LEM	L 47-73	+5.5	L −20.5	137.5	U 120
Jan 10	vsFDU	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 120
Jan 17	vsWAG	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 19	@CHST	W 62-56	+1.5	W +7.5	129.5	U 118
Jan 23	vsMERC	L 57-61	+1.5	L −2.5	122.5	U 118
Jan 29	@MERC	L 51-70	+5.5	L −13.5	122.5	U 121
Jan 31	@SFPA	W 81-69	+1.5	W +13.5	131.5	O 150
Feb 5	@LIU	L 55-60	+9.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 7	vsCHST	L 57-63	-5.5	L −11.5	127.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsCCSU	L 76-81	+3.5	L −1.5	128.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsLIU	W 55-52	+6.5	W +9.5	129.5	U 107
Feb 19	vsSTO	W 64-51	-2.5	W +10.5	121.5	U 115
Feb 21	@FDU	W 84-77	+2.5	W +9.5	123.5	O 161
Feb 24	vsSFPA	L 67-73	-6.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 140
Feb 26	@WAG	L 62-65	+2.5	L −0.5	131.5	U 127
Feb 28	vsLEM	W 66-59	+1.5	W +8.5	137.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CONN

L 55-79

+18.5

COLU

L 53-71

−10.5

PSU

L 43-87

−25.5

UML

W 73-67

+16.5

DSU

W 65-52

+11.5

HALL

L 45-68

+2.5

L 63-67

+13.5

NJIT

L 64-70

−8.5

FOR

L 47-65

−4.5

VAN

L 53-96

−3.5

STO

W 70-55

+16.5

CCSU

L 61-72

−3.5

LEM

L 47-73

−20.5

FDU

W 65-55

+8.5

WAG

W 80-74

+4.5

CHST

W 62-56

+7.5

MERC

L 57-61

−2.5

MERC

L 51-70

−13.5

SFPA

W 81-69

+13.5

LIU

L 55-60

+4.5

CHST

L 57-63

−11.5

CCSU

L 76-81

−1.5

LIU

W 55-52

+9.5

STO

W 64-51

+10.5

FDU

W 84-77

+9.5

SFPA

L 67-73

−12.5

WAG

L 62-65

−0.5

LEM

W 66-59

+8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 13avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CONN

L 55-79

−11.5

COLU

L 53-71

−24.5

PSU

L 43-87

−13.5

UML

W 73-67

−2.5

DSU

W 65-52

−13.5

HALL

L 45-68

−16.5

L 63-67

+3.5

NJIT

L 64-70

+3.5

FOR

L 47-65

−15.5

VAN

L 53-96

+3.5

STO

W 70-55

−3.5

CCSU

L 61-72

+2.5

LEM

L 47-73

−17.5

FDU

W 65-55

−10.5

WAG

W 80-74

+24.5

CHST

W 62-56

−11.5

MERC

L 57-61

−4.5

MERC

L 51-70

−1.5

SFPA

W 81-69

+18.5

LIU

L 55-60

−20.5

CHST

L 57-63

−7.5

CCSU

L 76-81

+28.5

LIU

W 55-52

−22.5

STO

W 64-51

−6.5

FDU

W 84-77

+37.5

SFPA

L 67-73

−1.5

WAG

L 62-65

−4.5

LEM

W 66-59

−12.5

over 8under 20avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIN74.4 #183

NHVN61.5 #363

Points per possession

LIN1.02 #307

NHVN0.97 #345

Pace (possessions)

LIN73.0 #18

NHVN63.5 #363

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIN48.0 #313

NHVN48.7 #296

3-point %

LIN29.4 #347

NHVN30.2 #340

3-point attempt rate

LIN30.7 #346

NHVN39.9 #172

Free throw rate

LIN38.6 #88

NHVN31.7 #261

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIN18.7 #307

NHVN17.8 #259

Offensive rebound rate

LIN33.3 #83

NHVN21.5 #359

Assists per game

LIN13.0 #212

NHVN10.9 #339

Defense

Points allowed

LIN75.0 #190

NHVN67.4 #24

Points allowed per possession

LIN1.03 #52

NHVN1.06 #107

Opponent effective FG%

LIN49.1 #72

NHVN51.8 #203

Opponent 3-point %

LIN32.4 #84

NHVN34.3 #199

Turnovers forced

LIN18.4 #78

NHVN17.1 #146

Defensive rebound rate

LIN68.3 #244

NHVN73.2 #30

Steals per game

LIN8.4 #24

NHVN6.0 #232

Blocks per game

LIN4.4 #46

NHVN2.0 #342

LIN		NHVN
Scoring
74.4 #183	Points per game	61.5 #363
1.02 #307	Points per possession	0.97 #345
73.0 #18	Pace (possessions)	63.5 #363
Shooting
48.0 #313	Effective FG%	48.7 #296
29.4 #347	3-point %	30.2 #340
30.7 #346	3-point attempt rate	39.9 #172
38.6 #88	Free throw rate	31.7 #261
Possessions
18.7 #307	Turnover rate	17.8 #259
33.3 #83	Offensive rebound rate	21.5 #359
13.0 #212	Assists per game	10.9 #339
Defense
75.0 #190	Points allowed	67.4 #24
1.03 #52	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #107
49.1 #72	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #203
32.4 #84	Opponent 3-point %	34.3 #199
18.4 #78	Turnovers forced	17.1 #146
68.3 #244	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #30
8.4 #24	Steals per game	6.0 #232
4.4 #46	Blocks per game	2.0 #342

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lindenwood Lions

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SE Missouri66–68
Wvs Little Rock72–62
W@ W Illinois91–69
Lvs E Illinois67–71
L@ Tennessee Tech57–72

A week or more of rest.

New Haven

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Le Moyne66–59
L@ Wagner62–65
Lvs Saint Francis Red Wolves67–73
W@ FDU84–77
Wvs Stonehill64–51

A week or more of rest.

Lindenwood Lions vs New Haven Chargers

What could decide it: LIN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Lindenwood Lions

New Haven

Matchup stats

Lindenwood Lions

New Haven