Saint Francis Red Wolves at New Haven Chargers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Feb 24, 6:00 PM ETJeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center · at New Haven · Conference game

#88SFPASaint Francis Red Wolves73▲ winner

Final

#355NHVNNew Haven67final

Closing lineNHVN -6.5✓ SFPA covered by 12.5

Closing total141.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Saint Francis Red Wolves and New Haven
SFPA	This season	NHVN
4-22	Record	10-15
12-14	ATS	14-11
14-12	O/U	8-17

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SFPA 66–74 NHVN · ✗ NHVN (76%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SFPA	41	32	73
NHVN	32	35	67

1st half: SFPA 41, NHVN 32 (SFPA by 9). The model had NHVN by 4.7 and a total of 65.4 (actual 73).

Team stats

SFPA		NHVN
26-46 57%	Field goals	24-53 45%
4-16 25%	3-pointers	10-31 32%
17-17 100%	Free throws	9-16 56%
33 4 off	Rebounds	20 4 off
11	Assists	12
4	Steals	7
1	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	6
17	Fouls	15
38	Points in paint	24
6	Fast-break points	5

Players

SFPA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Victor Payne Jr. G	34	4	3	2	2-6	0-3
Chris Moncrief G	33	13	3	2	4-6	1-2
Skylar Wicks G	29	13	6	1	4-10	0-2
Zion Russell G	28	14	4	3	4-5	2-3
Gestin Liberis F	28	19	9	1	7-7	1-1
Bench
Ahmad Harrison G	17	2	1	2	1-4	0-1
Paris Papadatos G	16	6	0	0	3-6	0-3
Cameron Tweedy F	9	2	4	0	1-1	0-0
Brandon Russell G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Melvin Weaver III, Kam Wylie, Kofi Asare, Brandon Rabish, Ralph Martino Jr., Trey Weiand, Carson Rhodes, KJ Swain Jr., Ryen Gresko

NHVN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jabri Fitzpatrick G	39	22	0	2	9-15	2-6
Andre Pasha F	38	5	5	5	2-6	1-4
Najimi George G	37	9	1	2	2-8	0-4
Stefano Faloppa F	20	5	2	0	2-5	1-3
Kheni Briggs G	13	4	0	0	2-4	0-1
Bench
Teshaun Steele F	22	4	8	2	1-2	0-1
Aidan Losiewicz G	14	3	1	1	1-6	1-6
Kyle Kearson G	11	9	1	0	3-4	3-4
Maison Adeleye G	6	6	0	0	2-3	2-2

Did not play: Matiss Ogle, Zoumana Traore, Tristan Burth, John Oladipo, Timothy Coleman, Nathan Narcisse, Vere Anthony, Owen Hotaling, Dior Kennedy, Justice Hanna, Dominick LaDuca, Jagger Bascombe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NHVN -6.5	NHVN -8.0	NHVN +1.5	L SFPA covered
Total	141.5	139.6	Under 1.9	W Under
Projected score	—	SFPA 65.8 · NHVN 73.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NHVN -4.7	SFPA -9.0
1H total	65.4	73
1H projected score	SFPA 30.3 · NHVN 35	SFPA 41 · NHVN 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SFPA LWLWL	12-14	46%	6-7	10-13
NHVN LLWWW	14-11	56%	5-5	4-2

Venue/role: SFPA away, as underdog; NHVN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SFPA OUOOU	14-12	54%	4-22
NHVN UOUUO	8-17	32%	10-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFPA	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
NHVN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SFPA 0–1 NHVNNHVN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SFPA 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 31, 2025-26	NHVN 81 @ SFPA 69	SFPA -1.5	NHVN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Saint Francis Red Wolves

26 games played

Straight up

4-22

15% wins

Against the spread

12-14

46% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-12

54% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-2215%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L L L

8 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1446%

L L L L L W W L L W W L W W W L W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1254%

O O U U U U O U O O O U O U U O U U O O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OU	L 66-102	+31.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 6	@TCU	L 63-104	+27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 167
Nov 11	vsMSM	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 18	@LEH	L 62-79	+10.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsBEL	L 57-94	+21.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTROY	L 64-74	+21.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 138
Dec 1	@XAV	L 74-96	+27.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 7	@RAD	L 56-89	+13.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 14	@TEM	L 67-95	+20.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 17	@FLA	L 61-102	+44.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 20	vsRMU	L 70-79	+13.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 2	vsLEM	L 58-84	+5.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 142
Jan 4	vsFDU	W 85-82	+2.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 167
Jan 8	@WAG	W 71-69	+7.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 140
Jan 10	@LIU	L 63-67	+15.5	W +11.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 17	vsCCSU	L 90-98	+6.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 188
Jan 19	vsSTO	W 63-61	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsCHST	W 81-60	-3.5	W +17.5	143.5	U 141
Jan 31	vsNHVN	L 69-81	-1.5	L −13.5	131.5	O 150
Feb 5	@MERC	L 89-98	+6.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 187
Feb 7	@LEM	L 84-86	+7.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 170
Feb 9	@CHST	L 75-80	+3.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 155
Feb 12	@FDU	L 59-66	+7.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 125
Feb 14	vsMERC	L 79-94	+2.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 173
Feb 19	vsLIU	L 89-91	+9.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 180
Feb 21	vsWAG	L 56-65	+1.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 66-102

−4.5

TCU

L 63-104

−13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−1.5

LEH

L 62-79

−6.5

BEL

L 57-94

−15.5

TROY

L 64-74

+11.5

XAV

L 74-96

+5.5

RAD

L 56-89

−19.5

TEM

L 67-95

−7.5

FLA

L 61-102

+3.5

RMU

L 70-79

+4.5

LEM

L 58-84

−20.5

FDU

W 85-82

+5.5

WAG

W 71-69

+9.5

LIU

L 63-67

+11.5

CCSU

L 90-98

−1.5

STO

W 63-61

+0.5

CHST

W 81-60

+17.5

NHVN

L 69-81

−13.5

MERC

L 89-98

−2.5

LEM

L 84-86

+5.5

CHST

L 75-80

−1.5

FDU

L 59-66

+0.5

MERC

L 79-94

−12.5

LIU

L 89-91

+7.5

WAG

L 56-65

−7.5

covered 12didn’t cover 14avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 66-102

+18.5

TCU

L 63-104

+13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−9.5

LEH

L 62-79

−10.5

BEL

L 57-94

−6.5

TROY

L 64-74

−13.5

XAV

L 74-96

+17.5

RAD

L 56-89

−9.5

TEM

L 67-95

+11.5

FLA

L 61-102

+6.5

RMU

L 70-79

+3.5

LEM

L 58-84

−9.5

FDU

W 85-82

+23.5

WAG

W 71-69

−4.5

LIU

L 63-67

−18.5

CCSU

L 90-98

+43.5

STO

W 63-61

−17.5

CHST

W 81-60

−2.5

NHVN

L 69-81

+18.5

MERC

L 89-98

+49.5

LEM

L 84-86

+16.5

CHST

L 75-80

+10.5

FDU

L 59-66

−16.5

MERC

L 79-94

+34.5

LIU

L 89-91

+31.5

WAG

L 56-65

−30.5

over 14under 12avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Haven

25 games played

Straight up

10-15

40% wins

Against the spread

14-11

56% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-17

32% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1540%

L L L W W L L L L L W L L W W W L L W L L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1156%

W L L W W W W L L L W L L W W W L L W W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-1732%

U U U U U U O O U O U O U U O U U U O U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CONN	L 55-79	+42.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 134
Nov 7	vsCOLU	L 53-71	+7.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 8	vsPSU	L 43-87	+18.5	L −25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 10	@UML	W 73-67	+10.5	W +16.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 15	vsDSU	W 65-52	-1.5	W +11.5	130.5	U 117
Nov 18	@HALL	L 45-68	+25.5	W +2.5	129.5	U 113
Dec 6	@BC	L 63-67	+17.5	W +13.5	126.5	O 130
Dec 10	@NJIT	L 64-70	-2.5	L −8.5	130.5	O 134
Dec 22	@FOR	L 47-65	+13.5	L −4.5	127.5	U 112
Dec 29	@VAN	L 53-96	+39.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 2	@STO	W 70-55	+1.5	W +16.5	128.5	U 125
Jan 4	@CCSU	L 61-72	+7.5	L −3.5	130.5	O 133
Jan 8	@LEM	L 47-73	+5.5	L −20.5	137.5	U 120
Jan 10	vsFDU	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 120
Jan 17	vsWAG	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 19	@CHST	W 62-56	+1.5	W +7.5	129.5	U 118
Jan 23	vsMERC	L 57-61	+1.5	L −2.5	122.5	U 118
Jan 29	@MERC	L 51-70	+5.5	L −13.5	122.5	U 121
Jan 31	@SFPA	W 81-69	+1.5	W +13.5	131.5	O 150
Feb 5	@LIU	L 55-60	+9.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 7	vsCHST	L 57-63	-5.5	L −11.5	127.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsCCSU	L 76-81	+3.5	L −1.5	128.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsLIU	W 55-52	+6.5	W +9.5	129.5	U 107
Feb 19	vsSTO	W 64-51	-2.5	W +10.5	121.5	U 115
Feb 21	@FDU	W 84-77	+2.5	W +9.5	123.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CONN

L 55-79

+18.5

COLU

L 53-71

−10.5

PSU

L 43-87

−25.5

UML

W 73-67

+16.5

DSU

W 65-52

+11.5

HALL

L 45-68

+2.5

L 63-67

+13.5

NJIT

L 64-70

−8.5

FOR

L 47-65

−4.5

VAN

L 53-96

−3.5

STO

W 70-55

+16.5

CCSU

L 61-72

−3.5

LEM

L 47-73

−20.5

FDU

W 65-55

+8.5

WAG

W 80-74

+4.5

CHST

W 62-56

+7.5

MERC

L 57-61

−2.5

MERC

L 51-70

−13.5

SFPA

W 81-69

+13.5

LIU

L 55-60

+4.5

CHST

L 57-63

−11.5

CCSU

L 76-81

−1.5

LIU

W 55-52

+9.5

STO

W 64-51

+10.5

FDU

W 84-77

+9.5

covered 14didn’t cover 11avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CONN

L 55-79

−11.5

COLU

L 53-71

−24.5

PSU

L 43-87

−13.5

UML

W 73-67

−2.5

DSU

W 65-52

−13.5

HALL

L 45-68

−16.5

L 63-67

+3.5

NJIT

L 64-70

+3.5

FOR

L 47-65

−15.5

VAN

L 53-96

+3.5

STO

W 70-55

−3.5

CCSU

L 61-72

+2.5

LEM

L 47-73

−17.5

FDU

W 65-55

−10.5

WAG

W 80-74

+24.5

CHST

W 62-56

−11.5

MERC

L 57-61

−4.5

MERC

L 51-70

−1.5

SFPA

W 81-69

+18.5

LIU

L 55-60

−20.5

CHST

L 57-63

−7.5

CCSU

L 76-81

+28.5

LIU

W 55-52

−22.5

STO

W 64-51

−6.5

FDU

W 84-77

+37.5

over 8under 17avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Francis Red Wolves at New Haven Chargers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Saint Francis Red Wolves

New Haven

Saint Francis Red Wolves

New Haven