Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Houston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ETFertitta Center · at Houston

#2HOUHouston AP #10

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jax State and Houston
JXST	This season	HOU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 90–52 · win probability HOU 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

JXST 1, HOU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HOUBig

JXST offense vs HOU defense

Offense 245th of 366 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: JXST 17.0%, HOU 12.8%. Forced: JXST 16.2%, HOU 20.7%

Context

Schedule so far

JXST has played the 196th-hardest schedule, HOU the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

JXSTBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: JXST 43.1, HOU 26.3. Allowed: JXST 38.7, HOU 38.7

HOUBig

HOU offense vs JXST defense

Offense 10th of 366 against a defense 172nd, on the model’s ratings

HOUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: JXST 49.7 and allows 49.6; HOU 51.9 and allows 46.2

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 0-0 at home, JXST 0-0 away

HOUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: JXST 0%, HOU 26%. Transfers in: JXST 8, HOU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: JXST 29.8%, HOU 35.7%. Defensive: JXST 72.0%, HOU 69.7%

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: JXST plays 66.3 a game (302nd fastest), HOU 65.0 (346th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

JXST hits 35.7% and allows 33.3%; HOU hits 34.7% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 38.1% and 40.7% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HOU -37.4	—
Total	—	142.0	—
Projected score	—	JXST 52.3 · HOU 89.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOU -22.1	—
1H total	66.5	—
1H projected score	JXST 22.2 · HOU 44.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WWWWL	13-16	45%	7-6	—
HOU WLWWL	19-18	51%	10-6	—

Venue/role: JXST away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST OOOUU	17-12	59%	12-17
HOU UOUOU	15-22	41%	30-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
HOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jax State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs UAB	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ LT	L71–77LO
Nov 20	vs GAST	L73–77LO

Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs RUTG	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs OAK	W78–45WU
Nov 29	vs QUC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jax State

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-12

59% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

W L L L L L L W W W L W L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L L L L L L L W W L W W L L L W W L W W L L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1259%

O O U U O O U O O O O U O U U U O O U U U O O O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 14	vsCCU	W 74-67	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 19	vsUSA	L 65-71	-2.5	L −8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 24	@ARST	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsNDSU	L 43-56	+3.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 99
Dec 1	vsUNA	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 13	@GAST	L 73-77	-3.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 17	vsEKU	L 59-62	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 20	@ETSU	W 81-75	+9.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 156
Dec 29	vsWKU	W 78-67	+2.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	@DEL	W 67-64	-4.5	L −1.5	126.5	O 131
Jan 4	@LIB	L 69-78	+9.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 7	vsFIU	W 71-64	-1.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 10	@KENN	L 82-88	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 170
Jan 14	vsSHSU	L 62-77	-1.5	L −16.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 17	vsLT	W 64-60	-4.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsMTSU	W 75-58	+1.5	W +18.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 28	@FIU	W 78-74	+3.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 31	@MOST	L 67-74	+4.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 5	@WKU	W 71-66	+4.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsKENN	W 77-58	+1.5	W +20.5	149.5	U 135
Feb 11	vsUTEP	L 64-69	-6.5	L −11.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 14	vsNMSU	L 70-79	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 149
Feb 18	@LT	L 71-77	+2.5	L −3.5	132.5	O 148
Feb 21	@SHSU	L 78-82	+6.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 26	vsDEL	W 80-70	-7.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsLIB	L 78-81	+3.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 5	@NMSU	L 75-77	+6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 152
Mar 7	@UTEP	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 125
Mar 10	vsNMSU	L 63-68	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

−0.5

USA

L 65-71

−8.5

ARST

L 63-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−9.5

UNA

L 66-73

−13.5

GAST

L 73-77

−7.5

EKU

L 59-62

−5.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+15.5

WKU

W 78-67

+13.5

DEL

W 67-64

−1.5

LIB

L 69-78

+0.5

FIU

W 71-64

+5.5

KENN

L 82-88

−0.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−16.5

W 64-60

−0.5

MTSU

W 75-58

+18.5

FIU

W 78-74

+7.5

MOST

L 67-74

−2.5

WKU

W 71-66

+9.5

KENN

W 77-58

+20.5

UTEP

L 64-69

−11.5

NMSU

L 70-79

−10.5

L 71-77

−3.5

SHSU

L 78-82

+2.5

DEL

W 80-70

+2.5

LIB

L 78-81

+0.5

NMSU

L 75-77

+4.5

UTEP

W 64-61

+1.5

NMSU

L 63-68

−3.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

+1.5

USA

L 65-71

+0.5

ARST

L 63-74

−18.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−43.5

UNA

L 66-73

+4.5

GAST

L 73-77

+10.5

EKU

L 59-62

−21.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+21.5

WKU

W 78-67

+2.5

DEL

W 67-64

+4.5

LIB

L 69-78

+12.5

FIU

W 71-64

−15.5

KENN

L 82-88

+20.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−11.5

W 64-60

−3.5

MTSU

W 75-58

−0.5

FIU

W 78-74

+3.5

MOST

L 67-74

+5.5

WKU

W 71-66

−3.5

KENN

W 77-58

−14.5

UTEP

L 64-69

−1.5

NMSU

L 70-79

+9.5

L 71-77

+15.5

SHSU

L 78-82

+12.5

DEL

W 80-70

+16.5

LIB

L 78-81

+19.5

NMSU

L 75-77

+6.5

UTEP

W 64-61

−14.5

NMSU

L 63-68

−10.5

over 17under 12avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Houston

37 games played

Straight up

30-7

81% wins

Against the spread

19-18

51% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-781%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L L L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1851%

L L W L W L L L W W W W L W L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

U U U O O O O U O U O O U U U U U O O O U U U U U O U U O U O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLEH	W 75-57	-36.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsTOW	W 65-48	-26.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 12	vsOAK	W 78-45	-30.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 16	vsAUB	W 73-72	-7.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 20	vsRID	W 91-45	-40.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 24	vsSYR	W 78-74	-14.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTENN	L 73-76	-2.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsND	W 66-56	-11.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsFSU	W 82-67	-12.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsJKST	W 80-38	-40.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	vsNOLA	W 99-57	-32.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsARK	W 94-85	-5.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMTSU	W 69-60	-25.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 3	@CIN	W 67-60	-4.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 6	vsTTU	W 69-65	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 134
Jan 10	@BAY	W 77-55	-2.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 13	vsWVU	W 77-48	-13.5	W +15.5	127.5	U 125
Jan 18	vsASU	W 103-73	-18.5	W +11.5	142.5	O 176
Jan 24	@TTU	L 86-90	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 28	@TCU	W 79-70	-8.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 149
Jan 31	vsCIN	W 76-54	-13.5	W +8.5	135.5	U 130
Feb 4	vsUCF	W 79-55	-15.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 7	@BYU	W 77-66	-1.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 143
Feb 10	@UTAH	W 66-52	-16.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 118
Feb 14	vsKSU	W 78-64	-22.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 16	@ISU	L 67-70	+2.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 21	vsARIZ	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 139
Feb 23	@KU	L 56-69	-2.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 125
Feb 28	vsCOLO	W 102-62	-20.5	W +19.5	139.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsBAY	W 77-64	-12.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 141
Mar 7	@OKST	W 82-75	-13.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsBYU	W 73-66	-9.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 13	vsKU	W 69-47	-5.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Mar 14	vsARIZ	L 74-79	+1.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 153
Mar 19	vsIDHO	W 78-47	-24.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 125
Mar 21	vsTA&M	W 88-57	-10.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 145
Mar 26	vsILL	L 55-65	-2.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−18.5

TOW

W 65-48

−9.5

OAK

W 78-45

+2.5

AUB

W 73-72

−6.5

RID

W 91-45

+5.5

SYR

W 78-74

−10.5

TENN

L 73-76

−5.5

W 66-56

−1.5

FSU

W 82-67

+2.5

JKST

W 80-38

+1.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+9.5

ARK

W 94-85

+3.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−16.5

CIN

W 67-60

+2.5

TTU

W 69-65

−3.5

BAY

W 77-55

+19.5

WVU

W 77-48

+15.5

ASU

W 103-73

+11.5

TTU

L 86-90

−5.5

TCU

W 79-70

+0.5

CIN

W 76-54

+8.5

UCF

W 79-55

+8.5

BYU

W 77-66

+9.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−2.5

KSU

W 78-64

−8.5

ISU

L 67-70

−0.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−13.5

L 56-69

−15.5

COLO

W 102-62

+19.5

BAY

W 77-64

+0.5

OKST

W 82-75

−6.5

BYU

W 73-66

−2.5

W 69-47

+16.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

−3.5

IDHO

W 78-47

+6.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+20.5

ILL

L 55-65

−12.5

covered 19didn’t cover 18avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−4.5

TOW

W 65-48

−17.5

OAK

W 78-45

−15.5

AUB

W 73-72

+4.5

RID

W 91-45

+1.5

SYR

W 78-74

+11.5

TENN

L 73-76

+12.5

W 66-56

−10.5

FSU

W 82-67

+0.5

JKST

W 80-38

−19.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+17.5

ARK

W 94-85

+32.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−9.5

CIN

W 67-60

−8.5

TTU

W 69-65

−8.5

BAY

W 77-55

−10.5

WVU

W 77-48

−2.5

ASU

W 103-73

+33.5

TTU

L 86-90

+34.5

TCU

W 79-70

+9.5

CIN

W 76-54

−5.5

UCF

W 79-55

−12.5

BYU

W 77-66

−8.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−24.5

KSU

W 78-64

−2.5

ISU

L 67-70

+2.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−3.5

L 56-69

−13.5

COLO

W 102-62

+24.5

BAY

W 77-64

−2.5

OKST

W 82-75

+5.5

BYU

W 73-66

−7.5

W 69-47

−23.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

+14.5

IDHO

W 78-47

−12.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+2.5

ILL

L 55-65

−21.5

over 15under 22avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Houston has the better starters

Position by position: Jax State 0, Houston 4, even 1

Jax StateBetterHouston

G J. Stiemke TR9.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28

HOUBig

G C. Hadnot TR20.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.6 ast Score 95

G C. Lockett TR9.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49

HOUBig

G D. Thomas TR15.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 6.5 ast Score 99

F N. Cunningham TR5.1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 38

HOUBig

F D. Gillespie TR17.9 pts · 11.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 94

F M. Hill TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 7

HOUBig

F B. East TR12.8 pts · 9.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 92

F B. Walker TR4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Tugler8.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 96

Jax StateBetterHouston

JXST offense245th of 366 · -7.4

HOUBig

HOU defense1st of 366 · +13.2

JXST defense172nd of 366 · -3.9

HOUBig

HOU offense10th of 366 · +10.1

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+10.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.9 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 3 players

HOUBig

Bench+3.6 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestJXST betterHOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jax State

Guards

J. Stiemke28 min · TRC. Lockett25 min · TRL. Horner9 min · TRG. GondrezickNewJ. VickNewN. HernandezNew

Forwards

N. Cunningham13 min · TRM. Hill10 min · TRB. Walker9 min · TRE. Croley5 min · TRK. Polk1 min · TRA. CurryNew

Houston

Guards

C. Hadnot35 min · TRD. Thomas29 min · TRC. Weaver21 min · TRM. Miller12 minK. Jefferson4 minB. JacksonNew

Forwards

D. Gillespie33 min · TRB. East24 min · TRJ. Tugler24 minC. McCarty12 min

Centers

A. DianeNewD. SilimanaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

JXST69.9 #287

HOU76.9 #119

Points per possession

JXST1.05 #241

HOU1.18 #36

Pace (possessions)

JXST66.3 #302

HOU65.0 #346

Shooting

Effective FG%

JXST49.7 #253

HOU51.9 #150

3-point %

JXST35.7 #76

HOU34.7 #134

3-point attempt rate

JXST38.1 #209

HOU40.7 #153

Free throw rate

JXST43.1 #21

HOU26.3 #355

Possessions

Turnover rate

JXST17.0 #204

HOU12.8 #3

Offensive rebound rate

JXST29.8 #208

HOU35.7 #32

Assists per game

JXST11.6 #310

HOU14.6 #111

Defense

Points allowed

JXST70.6 #66

HOU62.3 #1

Points allowed per possession

JXST1.06 #120

HOU0.96 #5

Opponent effective FG%

JXST49.6 #85

HOU46.2 #12

Opponent 3-point %

JXST33.3 #141

HOU31.6 #49

Turnovers forced

JXST16.2 #208

HOU20.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

JXST72.0 #67

HOU69.7 #173

Steals per game

JXST5.8 #252

HOU7.5 #75

Blocks per game

JXST3.0 #233

HOU3.8 #96

JXST		HOU
Scoring
69.9 #287	Points per game	76.9 #119
1.05 #241	Points per possession	1.18 #36
66.3 #302	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #346
Shooting
49.7 #253	Effective FG%	51.9 #150
35.7 #76	3-point %	34.7 #134
38.1 #209	3-point attempt rate	40.7 #153
43.1 #21	Free throw rate	26.3 #355
Possessions
17.0 #204	Turnover rate	12.8 #3
29.8 #208	Offensive rebound rate	35.7 #32
11.6 #310	Assists per game	14.6 #111
Defense
70.6 #66	Points allowed	62.3 #1
1.06 #120	Points allowed per possession	0.96 #5
49.6 #85	Opponent effective FG%	46.2 #12
33.3 #141	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #49
16.2 #208	Turnovers forced	20.7 #14
72.0 #67	Defensive rebound rate	69.7 #173
5.8 #252	Steals per game	7.5 #75
3.0 #233	Blocks per game	3.8 #96

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jax State

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico St63–68
W@ UTEP64–61
L@ New Mexico St75–77
Lvs Liberty78–81
Wvs Delaware80–70

A week or more of rest.

Houston

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois55–65
Wvs Texas A&M88–57
Wvs Idaho78–47
Lvs Arizona74–79
Wvs Kansas69–47

A week or more of rest.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Houston Cougars

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Jax State

Houston

Houston has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jax State

Houston