Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 7:30 PM ETThomas Assembly Center · at Louisiana Tech

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jax State and Louisiana Tech
JXST	This season	LT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LT 70–69 · win probability LT 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JXST has more of the edges

JXST 3, LT 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

JXSTBig

Three-pointers

JXST hits 35.7% and allows 33.3%; LT hits 28.6% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 38.1% and 33.4% of their shots

JXSTBig

LT offense vs JXST defense

Offense 302nd of 366 against a defense 172nd, on the model’s ratings

JXSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: JXST 43.1, LT 33.1. Allowed: JXST 38.7, LT 36.3

LTSmall

JXST offense vs LT defense

Offense 245th of 366 against a defense 184th, on the model’s ratings

LTSmall

Home court

LT at home. This season: LT 0-0 at home, JXST 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: JXST 49.7 and allows 49.6; LT 47.4 and allows 48.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: JXST 0%, LT 11%. Transfers in: JXST 8, LT 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: JXST plays 66.3 a game (302nd fastest), LT 65.5 (332nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: JXST 17.0%, LT 18.2%. Forced: JXST 16.2%, LT 17.9%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: JXST 29.8%, LT 36.4%. Defensive: JXST 72.0%, LT 68.4%

Context

Schedule so far

JXST has played the 196th-hardest schedule, LT the 197th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LT -0.9	—
Total	—	139.5	—
Projected score	—	JXST 69.3 · LT 70.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LT -0.4	—
1H total	65.3	—
1H projected score	JXST 32.4 · LT 32.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WWWWL	13-16	45%	7-6	—
LT WWWWL	17-14	55%	8-6	—

Venue/role: JXST away; LT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST OOOUU	17-12	59%	12-17
LT OUOOU	16-15	52%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
LT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jax State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs GAST	L73–77LO
Nov 25	vs PAC	No recent meeting
Nov 26	vs UCD	No recent meeting

Louisiana Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	vs TULN	L53–61LU
Nov 24	vs ALCN	W83–58WO
Nov 27	vs TXST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

JXST 3–3 LTSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · JXST 3-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 18, 2025-26	JXST 71 @ LT 77	LT -2.5	LT W
Jan 17, 2025-26	LT 60 @ JXST 64	JXST -4.5	LT W
Feb 15, 2024-25	JXST 70 @ LT 68	LT -3.5	JXST W
Jan 16, 2024-25	LT 61 @ JXST 63	JXST +2.5	JXST W
Feb 15, 2023-24	JXST 58 @ LT 63	LT -10.5	JXST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jax State

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-12

59% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

W L L L L L L W W W L W L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L L L L L L L W W L W W L L L W W L W W L L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1259%

O O U U O O U O O O O U O U U U O O U U U O O O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 14	vsCCU	W 74-67	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 19	vsUSA	L 65-71	-2.5	L −8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 24	@ARST	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsNDSU	L 43-56	+3.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 99
Dec 1	vsUNA	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 13	@GAST	L 73-77	-3.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 17	vsEKU	L 59-62	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 20	@ETSU	W 81-75	+9.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 156
Dec 29	vsWKU	W 78-67	+2.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	@DEL	W 67-64	-4.5	L −1.5	126.5	O 131
Jan 4	@LIB	L 69-78	+9.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 7	vsFIU	W 71-64	-1.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 10	@KENN	L 82-88	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 170
Jan 14	vsSHSU	L 62-77	-1.5	L −16.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 17	vsLT	W 64-60	-4.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsMTSU	W 75-58	+1.5	W +18.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 28	@FIU	W 78-74	+3.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 31	@MOST	L 67-74	+4.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 5	@WKU	W 71-66	+4.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsKENN	W 77-58	+1.5	W +20.5	149.5	U 135
Feb 11	vsUTEP	L 64-69	-6.5	L −11.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 14	vsNMSU	L 70-79	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 149
Feb 18	@LT	L 71-77	+2.5	L −3.5	132.5	O 148
Feb 21	@SHSU	L 78-82	+6.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 26	vsDEL	W 80-70	-7.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsLIB	L 78-81	+3.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 5	@NMSU	L 75-77	+6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 152
Mar 7	@UTEP	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 125
Mar 10	vsNMSU	L 63-68	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

−0.5

USA

L 65-71

−8.5

ARST

L 63-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−9.5

UNA

L 66-73

−13.5

GAST

L 73-77

−7.5

EKU

L 59-62

−5.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+15.5

WKU

W 78-67

+13.5

DEL

W 67-64

−1.5

LIB

L 69-78

+0.5

FIU

W 71-64

+5.5

KENN

L 82-88

−0.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−16.5

W 64-60

−0.5

MTSU

W 75-58

+18.5

FIU

W 78-74

+7.5

MOST

L 67-74

−2.5

WKU

W 71-66

+9.5

KENN

W 77-58

+20.5

UTEP

L 64-69

−11.5

NMSU

L 70-79

−10.5

L 71-77

−3.5

SHSU

L 78-82

+2.5

DEL

W 80-70

+2.5

LIB

L 78-81

+0.5

NMSU

L 75-77

+4.5

UTEP

W 64-61

+1.5

NMSU

L 63-68

−3.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

+1.5

USA

L 65-71

+0.5

ARST

L 63-74

−18.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−43.5

UNA

L 66-73

+4.5

GAST

L 73-77

+10.5

EKU

L 59-62

−21.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+21.5

WKU

W 78-67

+2.5

DEL

W 67-64

+4.5

LIB

L 69-78

+12.5

FIU

W 71-64

−15.5

KENN

L 82-88

+20.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−11.5

W 64-60

−3.5

MTSU

W 75-58

−0.5

FIU

W 78-74

+3.5

MOST

L 67-74

+5.5

WKU

W 71-66

−3.5

KENN

W 77-58

−14.5

UTEP

L 64-69

−1.5

NMSU

L 70-79

+9.5

L 71-77

+15.5

SHSU

L 78-82

+12.5

DEL

W 80-70

+16.5

LIB

L 78-81

+19.5

NMSU

L 75-77

+6.5

UTEP

W 64-61

−14.5

NMSU

L 63-68

−10.5

over 17under 12avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Louisiana Tech

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W W L W W L L W W L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

L W L L W L W L W L W L L W W W W L L W W L W W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

U U U O O O U U O O U U O U U O U O U O O U O U O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@NEV	L 50-77	+9.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 15	vsJKST	W 68-51	-8.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@INST	L 51-60	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 26	vsINST	W 75-73	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 29	vsALCN	W 83-58	-16.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@GASO	L 69-77	+1.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 13	vsUL	W 65-44	-9.5	W +11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 17	@TULN	L 53-61	+4.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 114
Dec 29	vsUTEP	W 75-63	-2.5	W +9.5	130.5	O 138
Jan 2	@MTSU	L 51-88	+6.5	L −30.5	134.5	O 139
Jan 4	@WKU	L 61-66	+9.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	vsLIB	L 56-72	+4.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsDEL	W 70-68	-6.5	L −4.5	123.5	O 138
Jan 14	vsMTSU	W 59-58	+3.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 117
Jan 17	@JXST	L 60-64	+4.5	W +0.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsKENN	W 82-76	+1.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 28	@UTEP	W 69-59	+2.5	W +12.5	130.5	U 128
Jan 31	@SHSU	L 67-83	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsNMSU	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 7	vsSHSU	W 87-78	+3.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 165
Feb 12	@MOST	W 79-78	+3.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 14	@FIU	L 64-77	+3.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 18	vsJXST	W 77-71	-2.5	W +3.5	132.5	O 148
Feb 21	@KENN	L 55-58	+5.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 113
Feb 26	vsMOST	W 72-70	-2.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsFIU	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Mar 5	@LIB	W 76-71	+8.5	W +13.5	136.5	O 147
Mar 7	@DEL	W 81-38	-2.5	W +40.5	132.5	U 119
Mar 12	vsMTSU	W 80-69	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 149
Mar 13	vsMOST	W 69-66	+1.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 135
Mar 14	vsKENN	L 60-71	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−17.5

JKST

W 68-51

+8.5

INST

L 51-60

−5.5

INST

W 75-73

−0.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+8.5

GASO

L 69-77

−6.5

W 65-44

+11.5

TULN

L 53-61

−3.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+9.5

MTSU

L 51-88

−30.5

WKU

L 61-66

+4.5

LIB

L 56-72

−11.5

DEL

W 70-68

−4.5

MTSU

W 59-58

+4.5

JXST

L 60-64

+0.5

KENN

W 82-76

+7.5

UTEP

W 69-59

+12.5

SHSU

L 67-83

−8.5

NMSU

L 63-72

−10.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+12.5

MOST

W 79-78

+4.5

FIU

L 64-77

−9.5

JXST

W 77-71

+3.5

KENN

L 55-58

+2.5

MOST

W 72-70

−0.5

FIU

L 76-84

−10.5

LIB

W 76-71

+13.5

DEL

W 81-38

+40.5

MTSU

W 80-69

+12.5

MOST

W 69-66

+4.5

KENN

L 60-71

−9.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−9.5

JKST

W 68-51

−27.5

INST

L 51-60

−36.5

INST

W 75-73

+6.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+3.5

GASO

L 69-77

+0.5

W 65-44

−17.5

TULN

L 53-61

−26.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+7.5

MTSU

L 51-88

+4.5

WKU

L 61-66

−18.5

LIB

L 56-72

−7.5

DEL

W 70-68

+14.5

MTSU

W 59-58

−14.5

JXST

L 60-64

−3.5

KENN

W 82-76

+13.5

UTEP

W 69-59

−2.5

SHSU

L 67-83

+8.5

NMSU

L 63-72

−0.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+21.5

MOST

W 79-78

+20.5

FIU

L 64-77

−5.5

JXST

W 77-71

+15.5

KENN

L 55-58

−34.5

MOST

W 72-70

+3.5

FIU

L 76-84

+14.5

LIB

W 76-71

+10.5

DEL

W 81-38

−13.5

MTSU

W 80-69

+14.5

MOST

W 69-66

+0.5

KENN

L 60-71

−11.5

over 16under 15avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Jax State 0, Louisiana Tech 0, even 5

Jax StateBetterLouisiana Tech

G J. Stiemke TR9.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28

Even

G J. Fenner5.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

G C. Lockett TR9.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49

No call

G D. Bates NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F N. Cunningham TR5.1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 38

No call

G K. Tilley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F M. Hill TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 7

No call

F E. Blackmon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F B. Walker TR4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F L. Rowe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

Jax StateBetterLouisiana Tech

JXST offense245th of 366 · -7.4

LTSmall

LT defense184th of 366 · -4.3

JXST defense172nd of 366 · -3.9

JXSTBig

LT offense302nd of 366 · -9.4

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.9 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench+0.3 · 3 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestJXST betterLT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jax State

Guards

J. Stiemke28 min · TRC. Lockett25 min · TRL. Horner9 min · TRG. GondrezickNewJ. VickNewN. HernandezNew

Forwards

N. Cunningham13 min · TRM. Hill10 min · TRB. Walker9 min · TRE. Croley5 min · TRK. Polk1 min · TRA. CurryNew

Louisiana Tech

Guards

J. Fenner22 minD. BatesNewK. TilleyNewJ. TylerNewJ. SandersonNewA. BoydNew

Forwards

E. BlackmonNewL. RoweNewB. WengerNewI. EmelifeNewI. FrancisNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

JXST69.9 #287

LT67.8 #318

Points per possession

JXST1.05 #241

LT1.03 #284

Pace (possessions)

JXST66.3 #302

LT65.5 #332

Shooting

Effective FG%

JXST49.7 #253

LT47.4 #329

3-point %

JXST35.7 #76

LT28.6 #359

3-point attempt rate

JXST38.1 #209

LT33.4 #310

Free throw rate

JXST43.1 #21

LT33.1 #234

Possessions

Turnover rate

JXST17.0 #204

LT18.2 #283

Offensive rebound rate

JXST29.8 #208

LT36.4 #21

Assists per game

JXST11.6 #310

LT11.9 #297

Defense

Points allowed

JXST70.6 #66

LT67.8 #30

Points allowed per possession

JXST1.06 #120

LT1.04 #75

Opponent effective FG%

JXST49.6 #85

LT48.7 #51

Opponent 3-point %

JXST33.3 #141

LT33.9 #178

Turnovers forced

JXST16.2 #208

LT17.9 #102

Defensive rebound rate

JXST72.0 #67

LT68.4 #232

Steals per game

JXST5.8 #252

LT6.8 #144

Blocks per game

JXST3.0 #233

LT4.6 #31

JXST		LT
Scoring
69.9 #287	Points per game	67.8 #318
1.05 #241	Points per possession	1.03 #284
66.3 #302	Pace (possessions)	65.5 #332
Shooting
49.7 #253	Effective FG%	47.4 #329
35.7 #76	3-point %	28.6 #359
38.1 #209	3-point attempt rate	33.4 #310
43.1 #21	Free throw rate	33.1 #234
Possessions
17.0 #204	Turnover rate	18.2 #283
29.8 #208	Offensive rebound rate	36.4 #21
11.6 #310	Assists per game	11.9 #297
Defense
70.6 #66	Points allowed	67.8 #30
1.06 #120	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #75
49.6 #85	Opponent effective FG%	48.7 #51
33.3 #141	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #178
16.2 #208	Turnovers forced	17.9 #102
72.0 #67	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #232
5.8 #252	Steals per game	6.8 #144
3.0 #233	Blocks per game	4.6 #31

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jax State

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico St63–68
W@ UTEP64–61
L@ New Mexico St75–77
Lvs Liberty78–81
Wvs Delaware80–70

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana Tech

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kennesaw St60–71
Wvs Missouri St69–66
Wvs MTSU80–69
W@ Delaware81–38
W@ Liberty76–71

A week or more of rest.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

What could decide it: JXST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Jax State

Louisiana Tech

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jax State

Louisiana Tech