1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. MUR vs HOF
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Murray State Racers vs Hofstra Pride

Landers Center · Neutral site
#132MURMurray St
vs
#166HOFHofstra
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MURThis seasonHOF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MUR 76–73 · win probability MUR 62%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MUR 2, HOF 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HOFBig
Three-pointers
MUR hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%; HOF hits 37.1% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 44.8% and 42.9% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MUR plays 72.3 a game (30th fastest), HOF 65.9 (319th). Faster games mean more points
MURBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MUR 38.6, HOF 31.6. Allowed: MUR 32.2, HOF 35.1
HOFSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MUR 53.8 and allows 52.4; HOF 51.4 and allows 46.3
MURSmall
HOF offense vs MUR defense
Offense 254th of 366 against a defense 197th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MUR 32.6%, HOF 34.7%. Defensive: MUR 68.7%, HOF 69.0%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MUR 28%, HOF 12%. Transfers in: MUR 4, HOF 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
MUR has played the 165th-hardest schedule, HOF the 142nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MUR 16.4%, HOF 16.1%. Forced: MUR 15.7%, HOF 15.0%
Even
MUR offense vs HOF defense
Offense 110th of 366 against a defense 120th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MUR -3.5—
Total—149.3—
Projected score—MUR 76.4 · HOF 72.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMUR -2.2—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreMUR 36 · HOF 33.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Murray St has the better starters

Position by position: Murray St 3, Hofstra 0, even 2
Murray StBetterHofstra
G C. Jones TR10 pts · 3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
MURSmall
G J. Moore TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 46
G R. Domon14.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
MURBig
G D. Tavarez TR8.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 47
G M. Courbon4.6 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 31
Even
F J. DeCady6.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 17
F S. Tupuola TR6.3 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 55
MURBig
F S. Wewe TR2.4 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 17
F B. Rogers TR6.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 67
Even
F I. Zorgvol TR5.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 62
Murray StBetterHofstra
MUR offense110th of 366 · -1.8
Even
HOF defense120th of 366 · -1.9
MUR defense197th of 366 · -4.8
MURSmall
HOF offense254th of 366 · -7.7
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
MURBig
Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players
MURBig
Frontcourt-3.3 · 3 players
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestMUR betterHOF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Murray St
Guards
C. Jones26 min · TRR. Domon25 minM. Courbon16 minB. Shorter15 minK. Magwood11 min · TRB. ShtolzbergNew
Forwards
S. Tupuola25 min · TRB. Rogers18 min · TRP. NikolicNewJ. BoulefaaNew
Hofstra
Guards
J. Moore30 min · TRD. Tavarez23 min · TRT. ThomasNewC. LopezNewT. BoydNewN. JeffersonNew
Forwards
J. DeCady25 minS. Wewe16 min · TRI. Zorgvol15 min · TRR. DunnNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MURHOF
Scoring
83.1 #26Points per game74.4 #184
1.15 #56Points per possession1.13 #86
72.3 #30Pace (possessions)65.9 #319
Shooting
53.8 #70Effective FG%51.4 #178
35.0 #1203-point %37.1 #26
44.8 #723-point attempt rate42.9 #119
38.6 #86Free throw rate31.6 #264
Possessions
16.4 #160Turnover rate16.1 #148
32.6 #100Offensive rebound rate34.7 #54
13.7 #165Assists per game12.3 #263
Defense
80.2 #323Points allowed68.2 #36
1.11 #233Points allowed per possession1.04 #69
52.4 #236Opponent effective FG%46.3 #14
36.2 #310Opponent 3-point %32.3 #78
15.7 #234Turnovers forced15.0 #292
68.7 #214Defensive rebound rate69.0 #201
5.9 #248Steals per game4.8 #343
4.1 #69Blocks per game3.5 #135
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Murray St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Nevada75–89
  • Lvs UIC79–92
  • L@ Bradley78–87
  • Wvs Evansville88–75
  • L@ Illinois St61–78

A week or more of rest.

Hofstra

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Alabama70–90
  • Wvs Monmouth75–69
  • Wvs Towson68–65
  • Wvs William & Mary92–61
  • Wvs Drexel62–51

A week or more of rest.