1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. ALCN @ MUR
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Alcorn State Braves at Murray State Racers

CFSB Center · at Murray St
#360ALCNAlcorn St
@
#132MURMurray St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ALCNThis seasonMUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MUR 87–66 · win probability MUR 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MUR has more of the edges

ALCN 1, MUR 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MURBig
MUR offense vs ALCN defense
Offense 110th of 366 against a defense 354th, on the model’s ratings
MURBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ALCN 31.8, MUR 38.6. Allowed: ALCN 39.4, MUR 32.2
MURBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ALCN 47.7 and allows 55.0; MUR 53.8 and allows 52.4
MURBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ALCN 26.9%, MUR 32.6%. Defensive: ALCN 64.5%, MUR 68.7%
MURBig
ALCN offense vs MUR defense
Offense 350th of 366 against a defense 197th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ALCN has played the 266th-hardest schedule, MUR the 165th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: ALCN plays 69.7 a game (138th fastest), MUR 72.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points
MURSmall
Home court
MUR at home. This season: MUR 0-0 at home, ALCN 0-0 away
ALCNSmall
Three-pointers
ALCN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; MUR hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%. Threes are 33.7% and 44.8% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ALCN 11%, MUR 28%. Transfers in: ALCN 5, MUR 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ALCN 19.6%, MUR 16.4%. Forced: ALCN 18.1%, MUR 15.7%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MUR -21.5—
Total—152.8—
Projected score—ALCN 65.6 · MUR 87.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMUR -12.7—
1H total71.4—
1H projected scoreALCN 29.4 · MUR 42—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Murray St has the better starters

Position by position: Alcorn St 0, Murray St 2, even 3
Alcorn StBetterMurray St
G T. Thomas9 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Jones TR10 pts · 3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
G J. Felton TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Domon14.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
G B. Thomas TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Courbon4.6 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 31
F M. Taylor TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 4
MURBig
F S. Tupuola TR6.3 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 55
C C. Richardson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0 ast Score 45
MURSmall
F B. Rogers TR6.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 67
Alcorn StBetterMurray St
ALCN offense350th of 366 · -12.5
MURBig
MUR defense197th of 366 · -4.8
ALCN defense354th of 366 · -9.9
MURBig
MUR offense110th of 366 · -1.8
Backcourt-1.9 · 3 players
MURBig
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
MURSmall
Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players
Bench-0.6 · 1 player
Even
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestALCN betterMUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Alcorn St
Guards
T. Thomas22 minJ. Felton14 min · TRB. Thomas7 min · TRS. SunderlandNewJ. PowellNewJ. CraineNew
Forwards
M. Taylor14 min · TRJ. Walker5 min · TRB. CannonNewN. ThomasNew
Centers
C. Richardson15 min · TRA. TokpahNew
Murray St
Guards
C. Jones26 min · TRR. Domon25 minM. Courbon16 minB. Shorter15 minK. Magwood11 min · TRB. ShtolzbergNew
Forwards
S. Tupuola25 min · TRB. Rogers18 min · TRP. NikolicNewJ. BoulefaaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ALCNMUR
Scoring
66.9 #335Points per game83.1 #26
0.96 #352Points per possession1.15 #56
69.7 #138Pace (possessions)72.3 #30
Shooting
47.7 #320Effective FG%53.8 #70
33.3 #2093-point %35.0 #120
33.7 #3033-point attempt rate44.8 #72
31.8 #259Free throw rate38.6 #86
Possessions
19.6 #340Turnover rate16.4 #160
26.9 #297Offensive rebound rate32.6 #100
11.1 #333Assists per game13.7 #165
Defense
80.2 #322Points allowed80.2 #323
1.15 #324Points allowed per possession1.11 #233
55.0 #330Opponent effective FG%52.4 #236
33.0 #120Opponent 3-point %36.2 #310
18.1 #92Turnovers forced15.7 #234
64.5 #347Defensive rebound rate68.7 #214
7.7 #63Steals per game5.9 #248
3.4 #162Blocks per game4.1 #69
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alcorn St

9-23 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View56–65
  • Wvs Alabama St77–65
  • Lvs AR-Pine Bluff48–83
  • Wvs Miss Valley St67–64
  • L@ Prairie View51–72

A week or more of rest.

Murray St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Nevada75–89
  • Lvs UIC79–92
  • L@ Bradley78–87
  • Wvs Evansville88–75
  • L@ Illinois St61–78

A week or more of rest.