1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. UTM @ ARST
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

UT Martin Skyhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves

First National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St
#341UTMUT Martin
@
#171ARSTArkansas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTMThis seasonARST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARST 79–68 · win probability ARST 84%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARST has more of the edges

UTM 1, ARST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARSTBig
ARST offense vs UTM defense
Offense 122nd of 366 against a defense 276th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UTM plays 66.2 a game (303rd fastest), ARST 73.4 (16th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
UTM has played the 364th-hardest schedule, ARST the 221st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UTMBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTM 21.4%, ARST 19.8%. Forced: UTM 20.0%, ARST 14.9%
ARSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTM 37.0%, ARST 38.2%. Defensive: UTM 68.0%, ARST 73.0%
ARSTSmall
UTM offense vs ARST defense
Offense 352nd of 366 against a defense 252nd, on the model’s ratings
ARSTSmall
Home court
ARST at home. This season: ARST 0-0 at home, UTM 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTM 20%, ARST 6%. Transfers in: UTM 1, ARST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTM 48.7 and allows 46.1; ARST 51.7 and allows 50.3
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTM 37.4, ARST 39.1. Allowed: UTM 35.8, ARST 37.0
Even
Three-pointers
UTM hits 30.4% and allows 30.2%; ARST hits 32.9% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 47.1% and 44.9% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARST -11.2—
Total—146.9—
Projected score—UTM 67.8 · ARST 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARST -6.6—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreUTM 31.1 · ARST 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas St has the better starters

Position by position: UT Martin 0, Arkansas St 2, even 3
UT MartinBetterArkansas St
G F. Petkovski5.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 5
ARSTBig
G J. Pyke TR12.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 83
G D. Remagen TR1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Taylor TR8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 45
G E. Moya NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G R. Blue Smith4.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 33
F V. Khryapa2.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 5
ARSTSmall
F A. Doumbia TR3.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.2 ast Score 36
F G. Sulaberidze NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F D. Muon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
UT MartinBetterArkansas St
UTM offense352nd of 366 · -13.0
ARSTSmall
ARST defense252nd of 366 · -6.6
UTM defense276th of 366 · -7.0
ARSTBig
ARST offense122nd of 366 · -3.2
Backcourt-4.5 · 3 players
ARSTBig
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
ARSTSmall
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestUTM betterARST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UT Martin
Guards
F. Petkovski27 minD. Remagen11 min · TRE. MoyaNewR. ConleyNewS. SavkovNewN. StuknysNew
Forwards
V. Khryapa14 minG. SulaberidzeNewA. BanceviciusNewO. SambeNewG. BubnysNewA. VilkasNew
Arkansas St
Guards
J. Pyke26 min · TRL. Taylor25 min · TRR. Blue Smith13 minC. WatsonNewT. FergusonNewC. GeathersNew
Forwards
A. Doumbia14 min · TRD. MuonNewG. BennettNewA. MaigaNewR. OmedNewM. SyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTMARST
Scoring
67.8 #319Points per game81.8 #33
1.03 #294Points per possession1.11 #117
66.2 #303Pace (possessions)73.4 #16
Shooting
48.7 #297Effective FG%51.7 #164
30.4 #3373-point %32.9 #240
47.1 #323-point attempt rate44.9 #70
37.4 #118Free throw rate39.1 #78
Possessions
21.4 #358Turnover rate19.8 #344
37.0 #17Offensive rebound rate38.2 #6
12.9 #222Assists per game15.3 #77
Defense
64.7 #5Points allowed78.0 #268
0.98 #11Points allowed per possession1.07 #121
46.1 #11Opponent effective FG%50.3 #117
30.2 #9Opponent 3-point %32.9 #115
20.0 #24Turnovers forced14.9 #298
68.0 #259Defensive rebound rate73.0 #36
8.3 #27Steals per game7.2 #110
4.1 #65Blocks per game2.8 #268
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Martin

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee St55–68
  • Wvs E Illinois66–63
  • Lvs Tennessee St42–67
  • Wvs Tennessee Tech64–49
  • L@ Little Rock65–67

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas St

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern77–80
  • Wvs Louisiana81–58
  • Wvs Southern Miss89–84
  • W@ UL Monroe102–94
  • W@ Louisiana79–62

A week or more of rest.