1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. APP @ CLT
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

App State Mountaineers at Charlotte 49ers

Halton Arena · at Charlotte
#248APPApp State
@
#141CLTCharlotte
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
APPThis seasonCLT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLT 74–65 · win probability CLT 79%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 138.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

APP 3, CLT 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CLTBig
APP offense vs CLT defense
Offense 328th of 366 against a defense 129th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
APP has played the 252nd-hardest schedule, CLT the 113th. A record against a soft schedule means less
APPSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: APP 15.3%, CLT 18.1%. Forced: APP 14.0%, CLT 13.6%
APPSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: APP 39.1, CLT 36.4. Allowed: APP 31.2, CLT 36.2
CLTSmall
Three-pointers
APP hits 30.4% and allows 32.2%; CLT hits 35.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 45.9% and 45.4% of their shots
APPSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: APP 32.0%, CLT 33.9%. Defensive: APP 71.0%, CLT 67.5%
CLTSmall
Home court
CLT at home. This season: CLT 0-0 at home, APP 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: APP 25%, CLT 10%. Transfers in: APP 2, CLT 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: APP 49.9 and allows 47.5; CLT 53.4 and allows 50.9
Even
CLT offense vs APP defense
Offense 164th of 366 against a defense 148th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: APP plays 64.3 a game (358th fastest), CLT 65.5 (331st). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CLT -9.3—
Total—138.5—
Projected score—APP 64.6 · CLT 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCLT -5.4—
1H total64.9—
1H projected scoreAPP 29.7 · CLT 35.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Charlotte has the better starters

Position by position: App State 0, Charlotte 3, even 2
App StateBetterCharlotte
G H. Koffi TR12.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30
CLTBig
G D. Finister TR14.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84
G E. Banks6.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
CLTBig
G K. Tillery TR3.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63
F C. Moodie2.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 15
CLTBig
F D. Grant TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 71
F A. Njock2.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 37
Even
F A. Conyers7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37
C R. Elezaj TR0 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Fort TR3.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 49
App StateBetterCharlotte
APP offense328th of 366 · -10.6
CLTBig
CLT defense129th of 366 · -2.3
APP defense148th of 366 · -3.2
Even
CLT offense164th of 366 · -5.0
Backcourt-5.2 · 2 players
CLTBig
Backcourt+2.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players
CLTSmall
Frontcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestAPP betterCLT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
App State
Guards
H. Koffi36 min · TRE. Banks26 minC. O'Kelley1 minL. LedfordNewB. KopetzkiNewJ. ColonNew
Forwards
C. Moodie12 minA. Njock11 minD. LytchNewG. ClaytonNewT. NealNew
Centers
R. Elezaj1 min · TRB. ChretienNew
Charlotte
Guards
D. Finister33 min · TRK. Tillery12 min · TRJ. Rodriguez-Stegemeijer8 min · TRR. EvansNewF. OgucheNewL. BarnesNew
Forwards
D. Grant24 min · TRA. Conyers20 minJ. Fort14 min · TRT. McKinley12 min · TRM. AllenNew
Centers
P. Marshall11 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
APPCLT
Scoring
69.3 #295Points per game73.0 #225
1.08 #187Points per possession1.12 #105
64.3 #358Pace (possessions)65.5 #331
Shooting
49.9 #240Effective FG%53.4 #86
30.4 #3353-point %35.2 #101
45.9 #483-point attempt rate45.4 #58
39.1 #77Free throw rate36.4 #140
Possessions
15.3 #87Turnover rate18.1 #278
32.0 #123Offensive rebound rate33.9 #71
11.4 #318Assists per game12.9 #217
Defense
67.4 #25Points allowed74.3 #164
1.05 #87Points allowed per possession1.13 #291
47.5 #33Opponent effective FG%50.9 #152
32.2 #71Opponent 3-point %33.5 #153
14.0 #336Turnovers forced13.6 #345
71.0 #106Defensive rebound rate67.5 #283
4.6 #351Steals per game4.5 #353
3.4 #155Blocks per game3.5 #150
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

App State

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss73–86
  • L@ Texas St57–60
  • Wvs GA Southern89–74
  • Lvs Marshall93–94
  • L@ James Madison58–69

A week or more of rest.

Charlotte

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs South Florida64–86
  • Wvs UAB83–78
  • Wvs Tulane74–60
  • L@ South Florida60–83
  • Lvs UAB74–80

A week or more of rest.