Milwaukee Panthers at Indiana State Sycamores: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ETHulman Center · at Indiana St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Milwaukee and Indiana St
MILW	This season	INST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects INST 79–74 · win probability INST 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MILW 4, INST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

INSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MILW 49.9 and allows 55.5; INST 52.8 and allows 50.2

MILWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MILW 33.0%, INST 26.2%. Defensive: MILW 70.8%, INST 68.2%

MILWBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MILW 15.3%, INST 19.5%. Forced: MILW 15.8%, INST 14.9%

INSTBig

INST offense vs MILW defense

Offense 162nd of 366 against a defense 297th, on the model’s ratings

INSTBig

Three-pointers

MILW hits 32.3% and allows 36.5%; INST hits 31.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 38.1% and 45.2% of their shots

MILWSmall

MILW offense vs INST defense

Offense 180th of 366 against a defense 267th, on the model’s ratings

MILWSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MILW 40%, INST 0%. Transfers in: MILW 3, INST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

INSTSmall

Home court

INST at home. This season: INST 0-0 at home, MILW 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

MILW has played the 191st-hardest schedule, INST the 149th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MILW 32.1, INST 27.4. Allowed: MILW 35.9, INST 28.7

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: MILW plays 69.1 a game (174th fastest), INST 69.7 (131st). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	INST -4.9	—
Total	—	153.6	—
Projected score	—	MILW 74.4 · INST 79.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	INST -2.8	—
1H total	71.8	—
1H projected score	MILW 34.5 · INST 37.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MILW WLLWL	11-20	35%	5-12	—
INST LLLWW	18-12	60%	7-6	—

Venue/role: MILW away; INST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MILW OOUUU	14-17	45%	11-20
INST OOUUU	13-17	43%	9-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILW	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
INST	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Milwaukee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ TCU	No recent meeting
Nov 21	vs STMN	W69–65WU
Nov 24	@ FLA	L45–81LU

Indiana St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs SFA	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs SIUE	W64–55WU
Dec 6	vs USI	W77–55WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MILW 0–1 INSTINST leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MILW 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 14, 2025-26	INST 70 @ MILW 68	MILW -2.5	INST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Milwaukee

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L L W L W L L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O U O U O O U U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsPFW	W 77-55	-3.5	W +18.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 30	@WIS	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 140
Jan 1	@WRST	L 70-76	+3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 5	@GB	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsNKU	L 67-85	-1.5	L −19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	vsIUIN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsOAK	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@PFW	L 82-100	+3.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 182
Jan 22	@RMU	L 76-88	+4.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	@YSU	W 65-64	+6.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsWRST	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	vsCLE	L 88-90	-9.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsDETM	L 63-76	-6.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 139
Feb 7	@NKU	L 62-67	+6.5	W +1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 10	@IUIN	W 92-88	-2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 15	vsGB	W 75-72	-2.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@DETM	L 86-91	-1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 22	@OAK	L 70-81	+5.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	vsYSU	W 78-65	+1.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 4	@DETM	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

PFW

W 77-55

+18.5

WIS

L 60-80

−0.5

WRST

L 70-76

−2.5

L 76-79

−6.5

NKU

L 67-85

−19.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+3.5

OAK

L 60-73

−10.5

PFW

L 82-100

−14.5

RMU

L 76-88

−7.5

YSU

W 65-64

+7.5

WRST

L 69-76

−4.5

CLE

L 88-90

−11.5

DETM

L 63-76

−19.5

NKU

L 62-67

+1.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+1.5

W 75-72

+0.5

DETM

L 86-91

−6.5

OAK

L 70-81

−5.5

YSU

W 78-65

+14.5

DETM

L 63-84

−19.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

PFW

W 77-55

−24.5

WIS

L 60-80

−17.5

WRST

L 70-76

−1.5

L 76-79

+10.5

NKU

L 67-85

−5.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+12.5

OAK

L 60-73

−33.5

PFW

L 82-100

+33.5

RMU

L 76-88

+11.5

YSU

W 65-64

−22.5

WRST

L 69-76

−6.5

CLE

L 88-90

+17.5

DETM

L 63-76

−16.5

NKU

L 62-67

−27.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+21.5

W 75-72

+1.5

DETM

L 86-91

+23.5

OAK

L 70-81

−8.5

YSU

W 78-65

−4.5

DETM

L 63-84

−4.5

over 14under 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana St

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L W L W W L L W W L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1260%

L W L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W W L W L W L W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O O U U O U O O U U O U U U O O O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 19	vsLT	W 60-51	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 22	vsBALL	W 70-52	-7.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 26	@LT	L 73-75	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsALCN	L 74-81	-12.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 155
Dec 7	vsUSI	W 77-55	-11.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 14	@MILW	W 70-68	+2.5	W +4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsBRAD	L 99-108	+5.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 207
Dec 21	@ILST	L 65-85	+13.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsBEL	W 81-80	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	@UNI	L 66-75	+10.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@DRKE	L 72-74	+6.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 10	vsEVAN	L 69-72	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 14	vsILST	W 94-89	+6.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 183
Jan 17	@MUR	L 81-85	+11.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 166
Jan 21	@BRAD	L 68-75	+8.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	vsDRKE	L 62-76	-3.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 138
Jan 27	@UIC	L 74-76	+5.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 31	vsVAL	L 72-76	-2.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 3	@EVAN	W 84-63	-1.5	W +19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 9	vsSIU	L 65-80	+1.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 12	vsMUR	L 72-74	+3.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 146
Feb 15	@VAL	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsUNI	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 21	@BEL	L 70-87	+12.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 25	@SIU	L 55-66	+8.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 121
Mar 1	vsUIC	W 79-63	+3.5	W +19.5	144.5	U 142
Mar 5	vsVAL	L 62-63	+2.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

W 60-51

+5.5

BALL

W 70-52

+10.5

L 73-75

+0.5

ALCN

L 74-81

−19.5

USI

W 77-55

+10.5

MILW

W 70-68

+4.5

BRAD

L 99-108

−3.5

ILST

L 65-85

−6.5

BEL

W 81-80

+8.5

UNI

L 66-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 72-74

+4.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−10.5

ILST

W 94-89

+11.5

MUR

L 81-85

+7.5

BRAD

L 68-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−17.5

UIC

L 74-76

+3.5

VAL

L 72-76

−6.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+19.5

SIU

L 65-80

−13.5

MUR

L 72-74

+1.5

VAL

L 75-76

+3.5

UNI

L 60-81

−15.5

BEL

L 70-87

−4.5

SIU

L 55-66

−2.5

UIC

W 79-63

+19.5

VAL

L 62-63

+1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

W 60-51

−36.5

BALL

W 70-52

−32.5

L 73-75

+6.5

ALCN

L 74-81

+2.5

USI

W 77-55

−26.5

MILW

W 70-68

−21.5

BRAD

L 99-108

+56.5

ILST

L 65-85

−2.5

BEL

W 81-80

+1.5

UNI

L 66-75

+5.5

DRKE

L 72-74

−3.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−4.5

ILST

W 94-89

+34.5

MUR

L 81-85

−1.5

BRAD

L 68-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−13.5

UIC

L 74-76

+2.5

VAL

L 72-76

+2.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+1.5

SIU

L 65-80

−1.5

MUR

L 72-74

−17.5

VAL

L 75-76

+5.5

UNI

L 60-81

+4.5

BEL

L 70-87

+0.5

SIU

L 55-66

−26.5

UIC

W 79-63

−2.5

VAL

L 62-63

−15.5

over 13under 17avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Milwaukee has the better starters

Position by position: Milwaukee 2, Indiana St 1, even 2

MilwaukeeBetterIndiana St

G I. Dorceus5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 14

INSTBig

G K. Gregory TR16.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 70

G T. Norman TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

Even

G M. White TR10.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 58

F D. Jovanovich12.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 78

MILWBig

G M. Mitchell TR11.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 28

F C. Jackson9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

MILWBig

G D. Paschal TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 16

F S. Murchison0.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Puryear TR0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

MilwaukeeBetterIndiana St

MILW offense180th of 366 · -5.5

MILWSmall

INST defense267th of 366 · -6.8

MILW defense297th of 366 · -7.6

INSTBig

INST offense162nd of 366 · -4.8

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-3.1 · 5 players

Frontcourt+1.9 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.1 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestMILW betterINST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Milwaukee

Guards

I. Dorceus22 minT. Norman8 min · TRJ. Hansen1 min · TRJ. LovelaceNewD. OmwenoNewA. WomackNew

Forwards

D. Jovanovich31 minC. Jackson23 minS. Murchison5 minA. Amadou3 min · TRN. MalosaNewB. AkoroNew

Indiana St

Guards

K. Gregory32 min · TRM. White31 min · TRM. Mitchell27 min · TRD. Paschal12 min · TRC. Puryear3 min · TRE. McQuillanNew

Forwards

A. Vlajic1 min · TRJ. CooperNewA. CalamitaNewK. LandNewK. SpeckmanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MILW74.7 #173

INST71.7 #254

Points per possession

MILW1.09 #172

INST1.03 #295

Pace (possessions)

MILW69.1 #174

INST69.7 #131

Shooting

Effective FG%

MILW49.9 #242

INST52.8 #110

3-point %

MILW32.3 #266

INST31.6 #305

3-point attempt rate

MILW38.1 #212

INST45.2 #62

Free throw rate

MILW32.1 #256

INST27.4 #349

Possessions

Turnover rate

MILW15.3 #85

INST19.5 #338

Offensive rebound rate

MILW33.0 #88

INST26.2 #317

Assists per game

MILW12.9 #220

INST17.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

MILW79.9 #317

INST75.1 #193

Points allowed per possession

MILW1.15 #328

INST1.08 #161

Opponent effective FG%

MILW55.5 #340

INST50.2 #110

Opponent 3-point %

MILW36.5 #329

INST31.2 #37

Turnovers forced

MILW15.8 #232

INST14.9 #299

Defensive rebound rate

MILW70.8 #121

INST68.2 #245

Steals per game

MILW6.5 #176

INST6.0 #242

Blocks per game

MILW3.0 #230

INST3.3 #176

MILW		INST
Scoring
74.7 #173	Points per game	71.7 #254
1.09 #172	Points per possession	1.03 #295
69.1 #174	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #131
Shooting
49.9 #242	Effective FG%	52.8 #110
32.3 #266	3-point %	31.6 #305
38.1 #212	3-point attempt rate	45.2 #62
32.1 #256	Free throw rate	27.4 #349
Possessions
15.3 #85	Turnover rate	19.5 #338
33.0 #88	Offensive rebound rate	26.2 #317
12.9 #220	Assists per game	17.1 #22
Defense
79.9 #317	Points allowed	75.1 #193
1.15 #328	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #161
55.5 #340	Opponent effective FG%	50.2 #110
36.5 #329	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #37
15.8 #232	Turnovers forced	14.9 #299
70.8 #121	Defensive rebound rate	68.2 #245
6.5 #176	Steals per game	6.0 #242
3.0 #230	Blocks per game	3.3 #176

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Milwaukee

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Detroit Mercy63–84
Wvs Youngstown St78–65
L@ Oakland70–81
L@ Detroit Mercy86–91
Wvs Green Bay75–72

A week or more of rest.

Indiana St

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-17 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Valparaiso62–63
Wvs UIC79–63
L@ S Illinois55–66
L@ Belmont70–87
Lvs Northern Iowa60–81

A week or more of rest.

Milwaukee Panthers at Indiana State Sycamores

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Milwaukee

Indiana St

Milwaukee has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Milwaukee

Indiana St