1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. MARQ @ MICH
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Marquette Golden Eagles at Michigan Wolverines

Crisler Center · at Michigan
#42MARQMarquette
@
#8MICHMichigan AP #16
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MARQThis seasonMICH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MICH 86–70 · win probability MICH 92%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MICH has more of the edges

MARQ 2, MICH 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MICHBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MARQ 29.7%, MICH 34.7%. Defensive: MARQ 65.3%, MICH 71.8%
MICHBig
Three-pointers
MARQ hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%; MICH hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%. Threes are 42.2% and 41.5% of their shots
MICHBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MARQ 50.5 and allows 50.6; MICH 58.3 and allows 44.6
MARQBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MARQ 16.1%, MICH 16.3%. Forced: MARQ 19.3%, MICH 15.2%
MICHBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MARQ 32.8, MICH 38.0. Allowed: MARQ 32.0, MICH 26.0
MICHSmall
Home court
MICH at home. This season: MICH 0-0 at home, MARQ 0-0 away
MARQSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MARQ 64%, MICH 38%. Transfers in: MARQ 3, MICH 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
MARQ offense vs MICH defense
Offense 46th of 366 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MARQ has played the 37th-hardest schedule, MICH the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
MICH offense vs MARQ defense
Offense 5th of 366 against a defense 36th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: MARQ plays 70.9 a game (79th fastest), MICH 71.7 (48th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MICH -16.0—
Total—155.3—
Projected score—MARQ 69.7 · MICH 85.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMICH -9.4—
1H total72.6—
1H projected scoreMARQ 31.6 · MICH 41—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: Marquette 0, Michigan 1, even 4
MarquetteBetterMichigan
G C. Porter TR11.2 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 45
MICHBig
G K. Noland TR17.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 87
G N. Minessale TR19.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 4.2 ast Score 97
Even
G E. Cadeau10.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.9 ast Score 87
G N. James16.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.9 ast Score 99
Even
G T. McKenney9.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 88
G A. Stevens7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 65
Even
G R. Gayle7.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 76
F R. Parham12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 87
Even
C M. Thiam TR12.8 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 92
MarquetteBetterMichigan
MARQ offense46th of 366 · +4.2
Even
MICH defense10th of 366 · +7.4
MARQ defense36th of 366 · +3.1
Even
MICH offense5th of 366 · +10.9
Backcourt+8.9 · 4 players
MARQSmall
Backcourt+7.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt+2.5 · 1 player
MICHSmall
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
Bench+2.8 · 5 players
MICHSmall
Bench+5.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestMARQ betterMICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Marquette
Guards
C. Porter35 min · TRN. Minessale32 min · TRN. James29 minA. Stevens26 minE. JohnstonNewN. WalkerNew
Forwards
R. Parham29 minS. Fru22 min · TRD. Owens16 minC. Hamilton13 minM. Phillips8 minJ. Clark6 min
Michigan
Guards
K. Noland34 min · TRE. Cadeau27 minT. McKenney22 minR. Gayle21 minH. Eisley1 minR. LiburdNew
Forwards
J. Estrella18 min · TRJ. Reed18 min · TRO. Goodman5 minH. HochbergNewL. CosbyNewQ. CostelloNew
Centers
M. Thiam27 min · TRM. MollerNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MARQMICH
Scoring
75.2 #160Points per game87.3 #4
1.06 #223Points per possession1.21 #8
70.9 #79Pace (possessions)71.7 #48
Shooting
50.5 #215Effective FG%58.3 #8
31.7 #2973-point %36.8 #33
42.2 #1333-point attempt rate41.5 #141
32.8 #243Free throw rate38.0 #102
Possessions
16.1 #145Turnover rate16.3 #157
29.7 #216Offensive rebound rate34.7 #55
15.5 #63Assists per game18.6 #5
Defense
75.8 #213Points allowed69.5 #55
1.07 #125Points allowed per possession0.97 #8
50.6 #131Opponent effective FG%44.6 #1
32.7 #104Opponent 3-point %30.4 #18
19.3 #39Turnovers forced15.2 #270
65.3 #331Defensive rebound rate71.8 #70
9.3 #5Steals per game5.6 #286
3.1 #207Blocks per game6.0 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Marquette

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Xavier87–89
  • Wvs UConn68–62
  • W@ Providence78–56
  • Lvs DePaul51–62
  • W@ Georgetown76–60

A week or more of rest.

Michigan

37-3 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs UConn69–63
  • Wvs Arizona91–73
  • Wvs Tennessee95–62
  • Wvs Alabama90–77
  • Wvs Saint Louis95–72

A week or more of rest.