1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. COLG @ SJU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Colgate Raiders at St. John's Red Storm

Carnesecca Arena · at St John's
#211COLGColgate
@
#9SJUSt John's AP #13
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
COLGThis seasonSJU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJU 93–60 · win probability SJU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 153.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJU has more of the edges

COLG 1, SJU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SJUBig
SJU offense vs COLG defense
Offense 8th of 366 against a defense 214th, on the model’s ratings
SJUBig
COLG offense vs SJU defense
Offense 205th of 366 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
COLG has played the 178th-hardest schedule, SJU the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SJUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: COLG 29.7, SJU 40.2. Allowed: COLG 33.8, SJU 31.8
SJUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: COLG 26.6%, SJU 35.2%. Defensive: COLG 70.7%, SJU 70.1%
SJUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: COLG 14.7%, SJU 14.4%. Forced: COLG 15.2%, SJU 19.1%
COLGSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: COLG 59%, SJU 22%. Transfers in: COLG 0, SJU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: COLG plays 68.6 a game (202nd fastest), SJU 70.8 (82nd). Faster games mean more points
SJUSmall
Home court
SJU at home. This season: SJU 0-0 at home, COLG 0-0 away
SJUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: COLG 53.3 and allows 52.2; SJU 51.0 and allows 47.5
Even
Three-pointers
COLG hits 35.6% and allows 34.8%; SJU hits 33.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 35.0% and 35.2% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SJU -33.1—
Total—153.5—
Projected score—COLG 60.2 · SJU 93.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSJU -19.6—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreCOLG 26.1 · SJU 45.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

St John's has the better starters

Position by position: Colgate 0, St John's 5, even 0
ColgateBetterSt John's
G J. Ahayere7.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 32
SJUBig
G T. Yessoufou TR17.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
F A. Alekseyenko14.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 75
SJUSmall
G I. Jackson9.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93
F S. Wright12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 60
SJUBig
F K. Hall TR19.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 98
F C. Wright1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8
SJUBig
F D. Freeman TR16.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 92
F A. Odetoyinbo1.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 20
SJUBig
F R. Bailey TR8.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
ColgateBetterSt John's
COLG offense205th of 366 · -6.3
SJUBig
SJU defense11th of 366 · +7.0
COLG defense214th of 366 · -5.5
SJUBig
SJU offense8th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt-1.6 · 1 player
SJUBig
Backcourt+6.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 4 players
SJUBig
Frontcourt+12.5 · 3 players
Bench-1.1 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCOLG betterSJU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Colgate
Guards
J. Ahayere25 minC. Pugh1 minJ. Niv1 minP. JonesNewB. ForrestNewI. SkinnNew
Forwards
A. Alekseyenko30 minS. Wright26 minC. Wright12 minA. Odetoyinbo11 minE. Brown7 minC. Brennan4 min
St John's
Guards
T. Yessoufou33 min · TRI. Jackson18 minK. Cuffe16 min · TRA. Brown15 min · TRL. Liotopoulos8 minC. Pohto5 min
Forwards
K. Hall34 min · TRD. Freeman31 min · TRR. Bailey19 min · TRR. Prey11 minZ. MaronkaNewB. SaneNew
Centers
T. EdemaNewL. StojkovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
COLGSJU
Scoring
75.6 #154Points per game80.9 #45
1.11 #121Points per possession1.14 #68
68.6 #202Pace (possessions)70.8 #82
Shooting
53.3 #91Effective FG%51.0 #192
35.6 #813-point %33.5 #197
35.0 #2753-point attempt rate35.2 #272
29.7 #316Free throw rate40.2 #57
Possessions
14.7 #50Turnover rate14.4 #38
26.6 #309Offensive rebound rate35.2 #43
14.2 #130Assists per game16.1 #44
Defense
76.2 #222Points allowed69.7 #59
1.11 #230Points allowed per possession0.98 #15
52.2 #224Opponent effective FG%47.5 #32
34.8 #238Opponent 3-point %31.3 #39
15.2 #268Turnovers forced19.1 #46
70.7 #125Defensive rebound rate70.1 #154
6.1 #230Steals per game7.7 #58
2.9 #249Blocks per game4.8 #22
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Colgate

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Lehigh69–76
  • Wvs Loyola MD90–77
  • L@ Navy69–85
  • Lvs Lafayette69–70
  • Wvs Loyola MD101–98

A week or more of rest.

St John's

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke75–80
  • Wvs Kansas67–65
  • Wvs Northern Iowa79–53
  • Wvs UConn72–52
  • Wvs Seton Hall78–68

A week or more of rest.