Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at IU Indianapolis Jaguars: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 6:30 PM ETJames T. Morris Arena · at IU Indy

#304USISouthern Indiana Screaming Eagles

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles and IU Indy
USI	This season	IUIN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IUIN 77–76 · win probability IUIN 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USI has more of the edges

USI 3, IUIN 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

USIBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: USI 37.2, IUIN 21.7. Allowed: USI 36.2, IUIN 46.6

IUINBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USI 17.1%, IUIN 15.8%. Forced: USI 16.5%, IUIN 19.2%

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: USI plays 69.0 a game (177th fastest), IUIN 75.3 (4th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

USI has played the 362nd-hardest schedule, IUIN the 284th. A record against a soft schedule means less

USISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USI 31.4%, IUIN 28.7%. Defensive: USI 66.2%, IUIN 64.5%

IUINSmall

Home court

IUIN at home. This season: IUIN 0-0 at home, USI 0-0 away

USISmall

USI offense vs IUIN defense

Offense 320th of 366 against a defense 364th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

USI hits 29.9% and allows 34.1%; IUIN hits 32.4% and allows 38.5%. Threes are 39.8% and 42.1% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: USI 43.7 and allows 49.4; IUIN 52.2 and allows 58.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: USI 0%, IUIN 14%. Transfers in: USI 0, IUIN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

IUIN offense vs USI defense

Offense 249th of 366 against a defense 243rd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	IUIN -0.9	—
Total	—	152.6	—
Projected score	—	USI 75.8 · IUIN 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IUIN -0.4	—
1H total	71.3	—
1H projected score	USI 35.5 · IUIN 35.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USI LWWWL	12-16	43%	8-7	—
IUIN WLLLL	12-18	40%	5-7	—

Venue/role: USI away; IUIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USI OOOUO	11-17	39%	5-23
IUIN OUUOO	13-17	43%	5-25

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
IUIN	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs WMU	L74–88LO
Nov 22	@ TEX	No recent meeting
Nov 24	@ VMI	L74–78LU

IU Indy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ MORE	W85–80WU
Nov 18	@ PSU	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs UMES	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

USI 1–0 IUINUSI leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · USI 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 19, 2022-23	USI 87 vs IUIN 74	IUIN +16.5	IUIN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

28 games played

Straight up

5-23

18% wins

Against the spread

12-16

43% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-17

39% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2318%

L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1643%

L L L W W W L L L L W W L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1739%

U U U O O U O U U U U O O U U U U O U U U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@BTLR	L 58-88	+22.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 7	vsVMI	L 74-78	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 12	@SDAK	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 20	vsUIW	L 81-87	+9.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 168
Nov 22	vsUIC	L 73-84	+11.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 26	@VAL	W 64-56	+9.5	W +17.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 3	@WMU	L 74-88	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 7	@INST	L 55-77	+11.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 18	vsLR	L 62-77	+2.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsMORE	L 60-64	+1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 1	@SIUE	L 55-59	+10.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 114
Jan 3	@LIN	L 80-83	+9.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 8	vsSEMO	L 76-84	+7.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	vsUTM	L 56-73	+5.5	L −11.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 15	@TNTC	W 71-54	+5.5	W +22.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 17	@TNST	L 67-73	+8.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 140
Jan 22	vsEIU	L 51-59	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 23	vsWIU	W 96-64	-6.5	W +25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsLIN	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsSIUE	L 46-58	+1.5	L −10.5	130.5	U 104
Feb 5	@UTM	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 130
Feb 7	@SEMO	L 65-90	+11.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsTNST	L 71-73	+6.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 14	vsTNTC	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 156
Feb 19	@WIU	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@EIU	W 70-68	+4.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 24	@MORE	L 63-64	+7.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 127
Feb 28	@LR	L 70-89	+5.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−7.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−7.5

UIW

L 81-87

+3.5

UIC

L 73-84

+0.5

VAL

W 64-56

+17.5

WMU

L 74-88

−8.5

INST

L 55-77

−10.5

L 62-77

−12.5

L 60-64

−2.5

SIUE

L 55-59

+6.5

LIN

L 80-83

+6.5

SEMO

L 76-84

−0.5

UTM

L 56-73

−11.5

TNTC

W 71-54

+22.5

TNST

L 67-73

+2.5

EIU

L 51-59

−10.5

WIU

W 96-64

+25.5

LIN

L 60-73

−8.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−10.5

UTM

L 54-76

−11.5

SEMO

L 65-90

−13.5

TNST

L 71-73

+4.5

TNTC

L 74-82

−6.5

WIU

W 77-70

+3.5

EIU

W 70-68

+6.5

L 63-64

+6.5

L 70-89

−13.5

covered 12didn’t cover 16avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−10.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−1.5

UIW

L 81-87

+22.5

UIC

L 73-84

+3.5

VAL

W 64-56

−30.5

WMU

L 74-88

+11.5

INST

L 55-77

−26.5

L 62-77

−1.5

L 60-64

−21.5

SIUE

L 55-59

−22.5

LIN

L 80-83

+15.5

SEMO

L 76-84

+13.5

UTM

L 56-73

−8.5

TNTC

W 71-54

−17.5

TNST

L 67-73

−10.5

EIU

L 51-59

−25.5

WIU

W 96-64

+23.5

LIN

L 60-73

−17.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−26.5

UTM

L 54-76

−2.5

SEMO

L 65-90

+13.5

TNST

L 71-73

−3.5

TNTC

L 74-82

+15.5

WIU

W 77-70

+6.5

EIU

W 70-68

+2.5

L 63-64

−15.5

L 70-89

+19.5

over 11under 17avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

IU Indy

30 games played

Straight up

5-25

17% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2517%

L L L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L W L L W L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L L W L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U O U O U U U U U O U U U O O U O U O U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OSU	L 102-118	+33.5	W +17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 6	vsLIU	L 90-94	-4.5	L −8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 8	@BTLR	L 80-112	+20.5	L −11.5	192.5	U 192
Nov 14	@EMU	W 90-83	+4.5	W +11.5	186.5	U 173
Nov 18	@CHSO	L 91-103	-1.5	L −13.5	188.5	O 194
Nov 21	vsALST	L 80-101	-2.5	L −23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	@AF	L 85-98	+3.5	L −9.5	175.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsMORE	W 85-80	-3.5	W +1.5	181.5	U 165
Dec 3	@DETM	L 78-92	+3.5	L −10.5	180.5	U 170
Dec 6	vsYSU	L 55-78	+6.5	L −16.5	171.5	U 133
Dec 11	vsGB	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	165.5	U 160
Dec 22	@GCU	L 78-91	+23.5	W +10.5	169.5	U 169
Dec 29	@CLE	L 86-99	+1.5	L −11.5	172.5	O 185
Jan 1	@NKU	L 72-81	+13.5	W +4.5	176.5	U 153
Jan 4	vsWRST	L 77-81	+8.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 9	@GB	L 59-75	+6.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 134
Jan 11	@MILW	L 83-95	+8.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsRMU	W 96-93	+5.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 189
Jan 17	vsDETM	L 77-80	-1.5	L −4.5	169.5	U 157
Jan 21	@OAK	W 103-85	+14.5	W +32.5	176.5	O 188
Jan 28	@RMU	L 58-74	+8.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 132
Jan 30	@YSU	L 76-85	+10.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 161
Feb 7	vsCLE	W 82-74	-2.5	W +5.5	169.5	U 156
Feb 10	vsMILW	L 88-92	+2.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 12	vsNKU	L 81-84	+5.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 165
Feb 15	@PFW	L 78-83	+7.5	W +2.5	159.5	O 161
Feb 19	@WRST	L 73-85	+11.5	L −0.5	160.5	U 158
Feb 25	vsOAK	L 74-86	+5.5	L −6.5	169.5	U 160
Feb 28	vsPFW	L 81-87	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 168
Mar 2	@CLE	L 93-101	-2.5	L −10.5	169.5	O 194

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+17.5

LIU

L 90-94

−8.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−11.5

EMU

W 90-83

+11.5

CHSO

L 91-103

−13.5

ALST

L 80-101

−23.5

L 85-98

−9.5

W 85-80

+1.5

DETM

L 78-92

−10.5

YSU

L 55-78

−16.5

L 75-85

−13.5

GCU

L 78-91

+10.5

CLE

L 86-99

−11.5

NKU

L 72-81

+4.5

WRST

L 77-81

+4.5

L 59-75

−9.5

MILW

L 83-95

−3.5

RMU

W 96-93

+8.5

DETM

L 77-80

−4.5

OAK

W 103-85

+32.5

RMU

L 58-74

−7.5

YSU

L 76-85

+1.5

CLE

W 82-74

+5.5

MILW

L 88-92

−1.5

NKU

L 81-84

+2.5

PFW

L 78-83

+2.5

WRST

L 73-85

−0.5

OAK

L 74-86

−6.5

PFW

L 81-87

−4.5

CLE

L 93-101

−10.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+47.5

LIU

L 90-94

−1.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−0.5

EMU

W 90-83

−13.5

CHSO

L 91-103

+5.5

ALST

L 80-101

−0.5

L 85-98

+7.5

W 85-80

−16.5

DETM

L 78-92

−10.5

YSU

L 55-78

−38.5

L 75-85

−5.5

GCU

L 78-91

−0.5

CLE

L 86-99

+12.5

NKU

L 72-81

−23.5

WRST

L 77-81

−4.5

L 59-75

−22.5

MILW

L 83-95

+12.5

RMU

W 96-93

+28.5

DETM

L 77-80

−12.5

OAK

W 103-85

+11.5

RMU

L 58-74

−30.5

YSU

L 76-85

+7.5

CLE

W 82-74

−13.5

MILW

L 88-92

+21.5

NKU

L 81-84

+0.5

PFW

L 78-83

+1.5

WRST

L 73-85

−2.5

OAK

L 74-86

−9.5

PFW

L 81-87

+4.5

CLE

L 93-101

+24.5

over 13under 17avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USI67.0 #333

IUIN80.9 #49

Points per possession

USI0.97 #346

IUIN1.07 #200

Pace (possessions)

USI69.0 #177

IUIN75.3 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

USI43.7 #363

IUIN52.2 #136

3-point %

USI29.9 #345

IUIN32.4 #258

3-point attempt rate

USI39.8 #178

IUIN42.1 #134

Free throw rate

USI37.2 #123

IUIN21.7 #365

Possessions

Turnover rate

USI17.1 #212

IUIN15.8 #127

Offensive rebound rate

USI31.4 #145

IUIN28.7 #243

Assists per game

USI9.7 #360

IUIN18.9 #3

Defense

Points allowed

USI74.3 #165

IUIN89.2 #364

Points allowed per possession

USI1.08 #165

IUIN1.19 #353

Opponent effective FG%

USI49.4 #80

IUIN58.2 #362

Opponent 3-point %

USI34.1 #193

IUIN38.5 #361

Turnovers forced

USI16.5 #183

IUIN19.2 #41

Defensive rebound rate

USI66.2 #315

IUIN64.5 #348

Steals per game

USI6.2 #210

IUIN8.0 #39

Blocks per game

USI4.2 #56

IUIN2.9 #243

USI		IUIN
Scoring
67.0 #333	Points per game	80.9 #49
0.97 #346	Points per possession	1.07 #200
69.0 #177	Pace (possessions)	75.3 #4
Shooting
43.7 #363	Effective FG%	52.2 #136
29.9 #345	3-point %	32.4 #258
39.8 #178	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #134
37.2 #123	Free throw rate	21.7 #365
Possessions
17.1 #212	Turnover rate	15.8 #127
31.4 #145	Offensive rebound rate	28.7 #243
9.7 #360	Assists per game	18.9 #3
Defense
74.3 #165	Points allowed	89.2 #364
1.08 #165	Points allowed per possession	1.19 #353
49.4 #80	Opponent effective FG%	58.2 #362
34.1 #193	Opponent 3-point %	38.5 #361
16.5 #183	Turnovers forced	19.2 #41
66.2 #315	Defensive rebound rate	64.5 #348
6.2 #210	Steals per game	8.0 #39
4.2 #56	Blocks per game	2.9 #243

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

5-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-16 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Little Rock70–89
L@ Morehead St63–64
W@ E Illinois70–68
W@ W Illinois77–70
Lvs Tennessee Tech74–82

A week or more of rest.

IU Indy

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Cleveland St93–101
Lvs Purdue FW81–87
Lvs Oakland74–86
L@ Wright St73–85
L@ Purdue FW78–83

A week or more of rest.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at IU Indianapolis Jaguars

What could decide it: USI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

IU Indy

Matchup stats

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

IU Indy