Western Michigan Broncos at Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 4:30 PM ETLiberty Arena (IN) · at Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

#304USISouthern Indiana Screaming Eagles

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: W Michigan and Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles
WMU	This season	USI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WMU 76–72 · win probability WMU 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

WMU 4, USI 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

WMU has played the 175th-hardest schedule, USI the 362nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

WMUSmall

WMU offense vs USI defense

Offense 137th of 366 against a defense 243rd, on the model’s ratings

WMUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WMU 30.5%, USI 31.4%. Defensive: WMU 70.9%, USI 66.2%

USISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WMU 32.8, USI 37.2. Allowed: WMU 37.5, USI 36.2

USISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WMU 16.8%, USI 17.1%. Forced: WMU 13.4%, USI 16.5%

WMUSmall

Three-pointers

WMU hits 35.3% and allows 36.1%; USI hits 29.9% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 36.1% and 39.8% of their shots

WMUSmall

USI offense vs WMU defense

Offense 320th of 366 against a defense 253rd, on the model’s ratings

USISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WMU 49.9 and allows 54.4; USI 43.7 and allows 49.4

USISmall

Home court

USI at home. This season: USI 0-0 at home, WMU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: WMU plays 69.3 a game (160th fastest), USI 69.0 (177th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WMU -4.1	—
Total	—	148.4	—
Projected score	—	WMU 76.2 · USI 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WMU -2.5	—
1H total	69.4	—
1H projected score	WMU 36 · USI 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU LWWLW	16-13	55%	8-8	—
USI LWWWL	12-16	43%	2-9	—

Venue/role: WMU away; USI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OOUOO	18-11	62%	9-20
USI OOOUO	11-17	39%	5-23

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
USI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

W Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ MSM	W83–60WU
Dec 2	vs BUF	L71–88LO
Dec 5	@ BGSU	W88–79WO

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ TEX	No recent meeting
Nov 24	@ VMI	L74–78LU
Nov 28	vs BALL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WMU 1–0 USIWMU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WMU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	USI 74 @ WMU 88	WMU -5.5	WMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Michigan

29 games played

Straight up

9-20

31% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-11

62% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2031%

W L W L L W L W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1355%

W W W L L W L W W L L W W W W W L W L L L L W L L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1162%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U O O U U O O U O U O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCCU	W 76-71	-2.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 9	@CAM	L 82-91	+9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 12	vsPFW	W 83-71	+3.5	W +15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 16	@SDAK	L 78-83	+3.5	L −1.5	172.5	U 161
Nov 20	@OSU	L 58-91	+26.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 23	vsMSM	W 83-60	-1.5	W +21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 29	@VAL	L 55-84	+4.5	L −24.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 3	vsUSI	W 88-74	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 6	@SIUE	W 83-73	+5.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 156
Dec 14	@IOWA	L 51-91	+25.5	L −14.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 20	vsBUF	L 71-88	+2.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 30	@TOL	L 79-84	+10.5	W +5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 6	@M-OH	L 76-87	+14.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsEMU	W 79-62	+1.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsMASS	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 167
Jan 17	@AKR	L 89-104	+21.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 193
Jan 20	vsBGSU	L 54-72	+6.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 126
Jan 24	vsCMU	W 77-65	-5.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 142
Jan 27	@NIU	L 65-85	+1.5	L −18.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 3	@OHIO	L 71-91	+10.5	L −9.5	155.5	O 162
Feb 7	@TXST	L 61-77	+6.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 11	vsTOL	L 79-90	+6.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@EMU	W 76-62	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 17	vsAKR	L 73-90	+14.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 163
Feb 21	@CMU	L 70-83	+3.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 24	@BGSU	W 88-79	+11.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 167
Feb 27	vsM-OH	L 67-69	+12.5	W +10.5	161.5	U 136
Mar 3	vsBALL	L 71-74	-1.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 6	@KENT	L 78-86	+13.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+2.5

CAM

L 82-91

+0.5

PFW

W 83-71

+15.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−1.5

OSU

L 58-91

−6.5

MSM

W 83-60

+21.5

VAL

L 55-84

−24.5

USI

W 88-74

+8.5

SIUE

W 83-73

+15.5

IOWA

L 51-91

−14.5

BUF

L 71-88

−14.5

TOL

L 79-84

+5.5

M-OH

L 76-87

+3.5

EMU

W 79-62

+18.5

MASS

L 82-85

+2.5

AKR

L 89-104

+6.5

BGSU

L 54-72

−11.5

CMU

W 77-65

+6.5

NIU

L 65-85

−18.5

OHIO

L 71-91

−9.5

TXST

L 61-77

−9.5

TOL

L 79-90

−4.5

EMU

W 76-62

+20.5

AKR

L 73-90

−2.5

CMU

L 70-83

−9.5

BGSU

W 88-79

+20.5

M-OH

L 67-69

+10.5

BALL

L 71-74

−4.5

KENT

L 78-86

+5.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+0.5

CAM

L 82-91

+20.5

PFW

W 83-71

−7.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−11.5

OSU

L 58-91

−10.5

MSM

W 83-60

−7.5

VAL

L 55-84

−7.5

USI

W 88-74

+11.5

SIUE

W 83-73

+16.5

IOWA

L 51-91

+4.5

BUF

L 71-88

+8.5

TOL

L 79-84

+2.5

M-OH

L 76-87

+2.5

EMU

W 79-62

−4.5

MASS

L 82-85

+9.5

AKR

L 89-104

+29.5

BGSU

L 54-72

−26.5

CMU

W 77-65

−6.5

NIU

L 65-85

+3.5

OHIO

L 71-91

+6.5

TXST

L 61-77

−8.5

TOL

L 79-90

+14.5

EMU

W 76-62

−5.5

AKR

L 73-90

+2.5

CMU

L 70-83

+2.5

BGSU

W 88-79

+17.5

M-OH

L 67-69

−25.5

BALL

L 71-74

+6.5

KENT

L 78-86

+6.5

over 18under 11avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

28 games played

Straight up

5-23

18% wins

Against the spread

12-16

43% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-17

39% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2318%

L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1643%

L L L W W W L L L L W W L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1739%

U U U O O U O U U U U O O U U U U O U U U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@BTLR	L 58-88	+22.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 7	vsVMI	L 74-78	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 12	@SDAK	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 20	vsUIW	L 81-87	+9.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 168
Nov 22	vsUIC	L 73-84	+11.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 26	@VAL	W 64-56	+9.5	W +17.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 3	@WMU	L 74-88	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 7	@INST	L 55-77	+11.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 18	vsLR	L 62-77	+2.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsMORE	L 60-64	+1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 1	@SIUE	L 55-59	+10.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 114
Jan 3	@LIN	L 80-83	+9.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 8	vsSEMO	L 76-84	+7.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	vsUTM	L 56-73	+5.5	L −11.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 15	@TNTC	W 71-54	+5.5	W +22.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 17	@TNST	L 67-73	+8.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 140
Jan 22	vsEIU	L 51-59	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 23	vsWIU	W 96-64	-6.5	W +25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsLIN	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsSIUE	L 46-58	+1.5	L −10.5	130.5	U 104
Feb 5	@UTM	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 130
Feb 7	@SEMO	L 65-90	+11.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsTNST	L 71-73	+6.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 14	vsTNTC	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 156
Feb 19	@WIU	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@EIU	W 70-68	+4.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 24	@MORE	L 63-64	+7.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 127
Feb 28	@LR	L 70-89	+5.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−7.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−7.5

UIW

L 81-87

+3.5

UIC

L 73-84

+0.5

VAL

W 64-56

+17.5

WMU

L 74-88

−8.5

INST

L 55-77

−10.5

L 62-77

−12.5

L 60-64

−2.5

SIUE

L 55-59

+6.5

LIN

L 80-83

+6.5

SEMO

L 76-84

−0.5

UTM

L 56-73

−11.5

TNTC

W 71-54

+22.5

TNST

L 67-73

+2.5

EIU

L 51-59

−10.5

WIU

W 96-64

+25.5

LIN

L 60-73

−8.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−10.5

UTM

L 54-76

−11.5

SEMO

L 65-90

−13.5

TNST

L 71-73

+4.5

TNTC

L 74-82

−6.5

WIU

W 77-70

+3.5

EIU

W 70-68

+6.5

L 63-64

+6.5

L 70-89

−13.5

covered 12didn’t cover 16avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−10.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−1.5

UIW

L 81-87

+22.5

UIC

L 73-84

+3.5

VAL

W 64-56

−30.5

WMU

L 74-88

+11.5

INST

L 55-77

−26.5

L 62-77

−1.5

L 60-64

−21.5

SIUE

L 55-59

−22.5

LIN

L 80-83

+15.5

SEMO

L 76-84

+13.5

UTM

L 56-73

−8.5

TNTC

W 71-54

−17.5

TNST

L 67-73

−10.5

EIU

L 51-59

−25.5

WIU

W 96-64

+23.5

LIN

L 60-73

−17.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−26.5

UTM

L 54-76

−2.5

SEMO

L 65-90

+13.5

TNST

L 71-73

−3.5

TNTC

L 74-82

+15.5

WIU

W 77-70

+6.5

EIU

W 70-68

+2.5

L 63-64

−15.5

L 70-89

+19.5

over 11under 17avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WMU73.9 #203

USI67.0 #333

Points per possession

WMU1.06 #225

USI0.97 #346

Pace (possessions)

WMU69.3 #160

USI69.0 #177

Shooting

Effective FG%

WMU49.9 #241

USI43.7 #363

3-point %

WMU35.3 #95

USI29.9 #345

3-point attempt rate

WMU36.1 #248

USI39.8 #178

Free throw rate

WMU32.8 #241

USI37.2 #123

Possessions

Turnover rate

WMU16.8 #191

USI17.1 #212

Offensive rebound rate

WMU30.5 #177

USI31.4 #145

Assists per game

WMU12.4 #256

USI9.7 #360

Defense

Points allowed

WMU80.1 #320

USI74.3 #165

Points allowed per possession

WMU1.16 #336

USI1.08 #165

Opponent effective FG%

WMU54.4 #310

USI49.4 #80

Opponent 3-point %

WMU36.1 #307

USI34.1 #193

Turnovers forced

WMU13.4 #346

USI16.5 #183

Defensive rebound rate

WMU70.9 #110

USI66.2 #315

Steals per game

WMU4.1 #362

USI6.2 #210

Blocks per game

WMU2.5 #301

USI4.2 #56

WMU		USI
Scoring
73.9 #203	Points per game	67.0 #333
1.06 #225	Points per possession	0.97 #346
69.3 #160	Pace (possessions)	69.0 #177
Shooting
49.9 #241	Effective FG%	43.7 #363
35.3 #95	3-point %	29.9 #345
36.1 #248	3-point attempt rate	39.8 #178
32.8 #241	Free throw rate	37.2 #123
Possessions
16.8 #191	Turnover rate	17.1 #212
30.5 #177	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #145
12.4 #256	Assists per game	9.7 #360
Defense
80.1 #320	Points allowed	74.3 #165
1.16 #336	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #165
54.4 #310	Opponent effective FG%	49.4 #80
36.1 #307	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #193
13.4 #346	Turnovers forced	16.5 #183
70.9 #110	Defensive rebound rate	66.2 #315
4.1 #362	Steals per game	6.2 #210
2.5 #301	Blocks per game	4.2 #56

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Michigan

9-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Kent State78–86
Lvs Ball State71–74
Lvs Miami OH67–69
W@ Bowling Green88–79
L@ C Michigan70–83

A week or more of rest.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

5-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-16 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Little Rock70–89
L@ Morehead St63–64
W@ E Illinois70–68
W@ W Illinois77–70
Lvs Tennessee Tech74–82

A week or more of rest.

Western Michigan Broncos at Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

W Michigan

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Matchup stats

W Michigan

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles