New Haven Chargers at Penn State Nittany Lions: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 4:30 PM ETBryce Jordan Center · at Penn State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: New Haven and Penn State
NHVN	This season	PSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PSU 85–59 · win probability PSU 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 143.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PSU has more of the edges

NHVN 1, PSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PSUBig

NHVN offense vs PSU defense

Offense 362nd of 366 against a defense 101st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NHVN has played the 307th-hardest schedule, PSU the 63rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

PSUBig

PSU offense vs NHVN defense

Offense 70th of 366 against a defense 285th, on the model’s ratings

PSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NHVN 17.8%, PSU 15.6%. Forced: NHVN 17.1%, PSU 17.7%

NHVNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NHVN 21.5%, PSU 25.9%. Defensive: NHVN 73.2%, PSU 68.8%

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: NHVN plays 63.5 a game (363rd fastest), PSU 67.5 (255th). Faster games mean more points

PSUSmall

Home court

PSU at home. This season: PSU 0-0 at home, NHVN 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

NHVN hits 30.2% and allows 34.3%; PSU hits 32.4% and allows 38.8%. Threes are 39.9% and 38.0% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NHVN 31.7, PSU 33.8. Allowed: NHVN 27.7, PSU 27.5

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NHVN 48.7 and allows 51.8; PSU 53.0 and allows 58.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NHVN 27%, PSU 27%. Transfers in: NHVN 0, PSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PSU -25.9	—
Total	—	143.8	—
Projected score	—	NHVN 59 · PSU 84.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PSU -15.3	—
1H total	67.3	—
1H projected score	NHVN 26 · PSU 41.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NHVN WWLLW	15-13	54%	9-7	—
PSU LWLLL	12-20	38%	7-10	—

Venue/role: NHVN away; PSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NHVN UOUUU	8-20	29%	11-17
PSU OUOUU	18-14	56%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NHVN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
PSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Haven

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs UNH	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs LIN	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ DSU	W65–52WU

Penn State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs IUIN	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs MEM	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs UALB	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NHVN 0–1 PSUPSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NHVN 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	PSU 87 @ NHVN 43	NHVN +18.5	PSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

New Haven

28 games played

Straight up

11-17

39% wins

Against the spread

15-13

54% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-20

29% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1739%

L L L W W L L L L L W L L W W W L L W L L L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1354%

W L L W W W W L L L W L L W W W L L W W L L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-2029%

U U U U U U O O U O U O U U O U U U O U U O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CONN	L 55-79	+42.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 134
Nov 7	vsCOLU	L 53-71	+7.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 8	vsPSU	L 43-87	+18.5	L −25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 10	@UML	W 73-67	+10.5	W +16.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 15	vsDSU	W 65-52	-1.5	W +11.5	130.5	U 117
Nov 18	@HALL	L 45-68	+25.5	W +2.5	129.5	U 113
Dec 6	@BC	L 63-67	+17.5	W +13.5	126.5	O 130
Dec 10	@NJIT	L 64-70	-2.5	L −8.5	130.5	O 134
Dec 22	@FOR	L 47-65	+13.5	L −4.5	127.5	U 112
Dec 29	@VAN	L 53-96	+39.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 2	@STO	W 70-55	+1.5	W +16.5	128.5	U 125
Jan 4	@CCSU	L 61-72	+7.5	L −3.5	130.5	O 133
Jan 8	@LEM	L 47-73	+5.5	L −20.5	137.5	U 120
Jan 10	vsFDU	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 120
Jan 17	vsWAG	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 19	@CHST	W 62-56	+1.5	W +7.5	129.5	U 118
Jan 23	vsMERC	L 57-61	+1.5	L −2.5	122.5	U 118
Jan 29	@MERC	L 51-70	+5.5	L −13.5	122.5	U 121
Jan 31	@SFPA	W 81-69	+1.5	W +13.5	131.5	O 150
Feb 5	@LIU	L 55-60	+9.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 7	vsCHST	L 57-63	-5.5	L −11.5	127.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsCCSU	L 76-81	+3.5	L −1.5	128.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsLIU	W 55-52	+6.5	W +9.5	129.5	U 107
Feb 19	vsSTO	W 64-51	-2.5	W +10.5	121.5	U 115
Feb 21	@FDU	W 84-77	+2.5	W +9.5	123.5	O 161
Feb 24	vsSFPA	L 67-73	-6.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 140
Feb 26	@WAG	L 62-65	+2.5	L −0.5	131.5	U 127
Feb 28	vsLEM	W 66-59	+1.5	W +8.5	137.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CONN

L 55-79

+18.5

COLU

L 53-71

−10.5

PSU

L 43-87

−25.5

UML

W 73-67

+16.5

DSU

W 65-52

+11.5

HALL

L 45-68

+2.5

L 63-67

+13.5

NJIT

L 64-70

−8.5

FOR

L 47-65

−4.5

VAN

L 53-96

−3.5

STO

W 70-55

+16.5

CCSU

L 61-72

−3.5

LEM

L 47-73

−20.5

FDU

W 65-55

+8.5

WAG

W 80-74

+4.5

CHST

W 62-56

+7.5

MERC

L 57-61

−2.5

MERC

L 51-70

−13.5

SFPA

W 81-69

+13.5

LIU

L 55-60

+4.5

CHST

L 57-63

−11.5

CCSU

L 76-81

−1.5

LIU

W 55-52

+9.5

STO

W 64-51

+10.5

FDU

W 84-77

+9.5

SFPA

L 67-73

−12.5

WAG

L 62-65

−0.5

LEM

W 66-59

+8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 13avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CONN

L 55-79

−11.5

COLU

L 53-71

−24.5

PSU

L 43-87

−13.5

UML

W 73-67

−2.5

DSU

W 65-52

−13.5

HALL

L 45-68

−16.5

L 63-67

+3.5

NJIT

L 64-70

+3.5

FOR

L 47-65

−15.5

VAN

L 53-96

+3.5

STO

W 70-55

−3.5

CCSU

L 61-72

+2.5

LEM

L 47-73

−17.5

FDU

W 65-55

−10.5

WAG

W 80-74

+24.5

CHST

W 62-56

−11.5

MERC

L 57-61

−4.5

MERC

L 51-70

−1.5

SFPA

W 81-69

+18.5

LIU

L 55-60

−20.5

CHST

L 57-63

−7.5

CCSU

L 76-81

+28.5

LIU

W 55-52

−22.5

STO

W 64-51

−6.5

FDU

W 84-77

+37.5

SFPA

L 67-73

−1.5

WAG

L 62-65

−4.5

LEM

W 66-59

−12.5

over 8under 20avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn State

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W W L W W W L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

L W L W L L L W L L W L L W W W L L L W L W L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1456%

U U U O O U O U O O O U O U U O U O O O O O O U U O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsBU	W 96-87	-14.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsSHU	W 90-59	-14.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsCAM	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 9	@IU	L 72-113	+14.5	L −26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	vsMSU	L 72-76	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 21	vsPITT	L 46-80	-1.5	L −35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 29	vsNCCU	W 90-67	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsILL	L 65-73	+14.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 6	vsMICH	L 72-74	+24.5	W +22.5	169.5	U 146
Jan 10	@PUR	L 85-93	+22.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 14	vsUCLA	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 18	@MD	L 73-96	+1.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 169
Jan 22	vsWIS	L 71-98	+5.5	L −21.5	157.5	O 169
Jan 26	@OSU	L 78-84	+11.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 29	@NU	L 73-94	+7.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 167
Feb 1	vsMINN	W 77-75	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 5	@MICH	L 69-110	+26.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 179
Feb 8	vsUSC	L 75-77	+3.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 152
Feb 11	@WASH	W 63-60	+12.5	W +15.5	153.5	U 123
Feb 14	@ORE	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 18	vsRUTG	L 72-85	-4.5	L −17.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NEB	L 64-87	+17.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsIOWA	W 71-69	+9.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 140
Mar 4	vsOSU	L 62-94	+7.5	L −24.5	152.5	O 156
Mar 8	@RUTG	L 62-74	+4.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 136
Mar 10	vsNU	L 66-76	+4.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

W 96-87

−5.5

SHU

W 90-59

+16.5

CAM

W 87-76

−3.5

L 72-113

−26.5

MSU

L 72-76

+8.5

PITT

L 46-80

−35.5

NCCU

W 90-67

−0.5

ILL

L 65-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-74

+22.5

PUR

L 85-93

+14.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−6.5

L 73-96

−21.5

WIS

L 71-98

−21.5

OSU

L 78-84

+5.5

L 73-94

−13.5

MINN

W 77-75

+4.5

MICH

L 69-110

−14.5

USC

L 75-77

+1.5

WASH

W 63-60

+15.5

ORE

L 72-83

−4.5

RUTG

L 72-85

−17.5

NEB

L 64-87

−5.5

IOWA

W 71-69

+11.5

OSU

L 62-94

−24.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−7.5

L 66-76

−5.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

W 96-87

+40.5

SHU

W 90-59

−11.5

CAM

W 87-76

+8.5

L 72-113

+32.5

MSU

L 72-76

+2.5

PITT

L 46-80

−20.5

NCCU

W 90-67

+6.5

ILL

L 65-73

−18.5

MICH

L 72-74

−23.5

PUR

L 85-93

+25.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−17.5

L 73-96

+20.5

WIS

L 71-98

+11.5

OSU

L 78-84

+8.5

L 73-94

+18.5

MINN

W 77-75

+9.5

MICH

L 69-110

+17.5

USC

L 75-77

−5.5

WASH

W 63-60

−30.5

ORE

L 72-83

+9.5

RUTG

L 72-85

+8.5

NEB

L 64-87

+3.5

IOWA

W 71-69

−3.5

OSU

L 62-94

+3.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−13.5

L 66-76

−1.5

over 18under 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Penn State has the better starters

Position by position: New Haven 0, Penn State 1, even 4

New HavenBetterPenn State

G K. Briggs6.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 38

Even

G D. Bowen TR11.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast Score 45

G A. Losiewicz2.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Rodgers TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 6.9 ast Score 49

F T. Steele3.2 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27

PSUSmall

F B. Byers TR14.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55

F Z. Traore1.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Reed11.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 82

C T. Burth0.9 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F I. Juric10.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 61

New HavenBetterPenn State

NHVN offense362nd of 366 · -14.4

PSUBig

PSU defense101st of 366 · -0.8

NHVN defense285th of 366 · -7.1

PSUBig

PSU offense70th of 366 · +1.7

Backcourt-1.3 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.5 · 3 players

PSUBig

Frontcourt+2.2 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+2.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestNHVN betterPSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

New Haven

Guards

K. Briggs19 minA. Losiewicz7 minD. YoungNewF. MosleyNewD. LaDucaNewJ. HannaNew

Forwards

T. Steele15 minZ. Traore7 minN. NarcisseNewA. RamirezNewJ. BascombeNewM. OgleNew

Centers

T. Burth6 minT. ColemanNewM. CamaraNew

Penn State

Guards

D. Bowen35 min · TRJ. Rodgers30 min · TRR. Blums23 min · TRT. AllardNewR. GrodinNewA. GemaoNew

Forwards

B. Byers32 min · TRJ. Reed28 minI. Juric26 minT. Oboh22 min · TRR. PrkacinNewF. WibautNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NHVN61.5 #363

PSU73.7 #211

Points per possession

NHVN0.97 #345

PSU1.09 #148

Pace (possessions)

NHVN63.5 #363

PSU67.5 #255

Shooting

Effective FG%

NHVN48.7 #296

PSU53.0 #102

3-point %

NHVN30.2 #340

PSU32.4 #263

3-point attempt rate

NHVN39.9 #172

PSU38.0 #214

Free throw rate

NHVN31.7 #261

PSU33.8 #219

Possessions

Turnover rate

NHVN17.8 #259

PSU15.6 #113

Offensive rebound rate

NHVN21.5 #359

PSU25.9 #325

Assists per game

NHVN10.9 #339

PSU12.7 #238

Defense

Points allowed

NHVN67.4 #24

PSU79.3 #308

Points allowed per possession

NHVN1.06 #107

PSU1.17 #345

Opponent effective FG%

NHVN51.8 #203

PSU58.4 #363

Opponent 3-point %

NHVN34.3 #199

PSU38.8 #363

Turnovers forced

NHVN17.1 #146

PSU17.7 #115

Defensive rebound rate

NHVN73.2 #30

PSU68.8 #210

Steals per game

NHVN6.0 #232

PSU6.9 #132

Blocks per game

NHVN2.0 #342

PSU1.7 #357

NHVN		PSU
Scoring
61.5 #363	Points per game	73.7 #211
0.97 #345	Points per possession	1.09 #148
63.5 #363	Pace (possessions)	67.5 #255
Shooting
48.7 #296	Effective FG%	53.0 #102
30.2 #340	3-point %	32.4 #263
39.9 #172	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #214
31.7 #261	Free throw rate	33.8 #219
Possessions
17.8 #259	Turnover rate	15.6 #113
21.5 #359	Offensive rebound rate	25.9 #325
10.9 #339	Assists per game	12.7 #238
Defense
67.4 #24	Points allowed	79.3 #308
1.06 #107	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #345
51.8 #203	Opponent effective FG%	58.4 #363
34.3 #199	Opponent 3-point %	38.8 #363
17.1 #146	Turnovers forced	17.7 #115
73.2 #30	Defensive rebound rate	68.8 #210
6.0 #232	Steals per game	6.9 #132
2.0 #342	Blocks per game	1.7 #357

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

New Haven

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Le Moyne66–59
L@ Wagner62–65
Lvs Saint Francis Red Wolves67–73
W@ FDU84–77
Wvs Stonehill64–51

A week or more of rest.

Penn State

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern66–76
L@ Rutgers62–74
Lvs Ohio State62–94
Wvs Iowa71–69
L@ Nebraska64–87

A week or more of rest.

New Haven Chargers at Penn State Nittany Lions

What could decide it: PSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

New Haven

Penn State

Penn State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

New Haven

Penn State