Pepperdine Waves at Oregon Ducks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 5:00 PM ETMatthew Knight Arena · at Oregon

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pepperdine and Oregon
PEPP	This season	ORE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORE 84–67 · win probability ORE 93%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORE has more of the edges

PEPP 0, ORE 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OREBig

ORE offense vs PEPP defense

Offense 66th of 366 against a defense 216th, on the model’s ratings

ORESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PEPP 47.6 and allows 54.2; ORE 49.5 and allows 50.9

Context

Schedule so far

PEPP has played the 128th-hardest schedule, ORE the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ORESmall

PEPP offense vs ORE defense

Offense 139th of 366 against a defense 39th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: PEPP plays 70.0 a game (117th fastest), ORE 66.8 (287th). Faster games mean more points

ORESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PEPP 29.1%, ORE 32.3%. Defensive: PEPP 66.0%, ORE 67.7%

ORESmall

Three-pointers

PEPP hits 31.4% and allows 35.5%; ORE hits 32.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 39.2% and 42.8% of their shots

ORESmall

Home court

ORE at home. This season: ORE 0-0 at home, PEPP 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PEPP 5%, ORE 23%. Transfers in: PEPP 7, ORE 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PEPP 33.9, ORE 35.0. Allowed: PEPP 28.5, ORE 32.0

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PEPP 18.3%, ORE 17.6%. Forced: PEPP 16.5%, ORE 15.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ORE -16.9	—
Total	—	150.2	—
Projected score	—	PEPP 66.6 · ORE 83.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORE -9.9	—
1H total	70.2	—
1H projected score	PEPP 30.1 · ORE 40.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PEPP WLWWL	14-16	47%	8-5	—
ORE WWLWL	12-20	38%	7-10	—

Venue/role: PEPP away; ORE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PEPP OOOOU	15-15	50%	7-23
ORE OUUOU	14-18	44%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PEPP	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%
ORE	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pepperdine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	vs UCSB	L64–67LU
Nov 23	vs UNCG	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs CSUB	W70–62WU

Oregon

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	vs ORST	W87–75LO
Nov 24	vs SJU	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ UCLA	L57–73LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PEPP 0–1 OREORE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · PEPP 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2021-22	PEPP 59 @ ORE 68	ORE -16.5	PEPP W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pepperdine

30 games played

Straight up

7-23

23% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2323%

L L W L L L L L W L W L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

W L W L L L L L W W W L L W W L L W W L L W L L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U U U U U U O O U U U O U U U U O O O O O O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UCLA	L 63-74	+29.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUNCO	L 81-88	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	vsNOLA	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSFA	L 60-63	+1.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsFRES	L 53-76	+2.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 129
Nov 29	@CSUF	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	161.5	U 152
Dec 2	vsACU	L 63-71	+1.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 134
Dec 6	vsUVM	L 56-65	+1.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 13	@CSUB	W 70-62	+1.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 132
Dec 18	@LBSU	L 78-81	+4.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsRICE	W 84-62	+1.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 146
Dec 28	vsGONZ	L 56-96	+29.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 152
Dec 30	vsSMC	L 45-72	+19.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 117
Jan 2	@SCU	L 63-82	+20.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 4	@PAC	L 69-74	+11.5	W +6.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 8	@USD	L 63-83	+4.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 10	vsSF	L 60-80	+7.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 140
Jan 14	vsPORT	W 67-63	+1.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 130
Jan 21	@GONZ	L 60-84	+28.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 144
Jan 24	@WSU	L 79-95	+11.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 174
Jan 28	vsUSD	L 88-92	+2.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 180
Feb 4	@SEA	L 81-83	+12.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsPAC	L 59-92	+7.5	L −25.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 11	@SMC	L 60-88	+24.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 14	vsLMU	W 90-89	+5.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 18	@PORT	W 95-87	+7.5	W +15.5	150.5	O 182
Feb 21	@ORST	L 73-83	+9.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsSEA	L 80-87	+7.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 167
Feb 28	vsWSU	W 88-79	+7.5	W +16.5	158.5	O 167
Mar 5	vsPORT	L 68-77	+3.5	L −5.5	154.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

+18.5

UNCO

L 81-88

−5.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+5.5

SFA

L 60-63

−1.5

FRES

L 53-76

−20.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−12.5

ACU

L 63-71

−6.5

UVM

L 56-65

−7.5

CSUB

W 70-62

+9.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+1.5

RICE

W 84-62

+23.5

GONZ

L 56-96

−10.5

SMC

L 45-72

−7.5

SCU

L 63-82

+1.5

PAC

L 69-74

+6.5

USD

L 63-83

−15.5

L 60-80

−12.5

PORT

W 67-63

+5.5

GONZ

L 60-84

+4.5

WSU

L 79-95

−4.5

USD

L 88-92

−1.5

SEA

L 81-83

+10.5

PAC

L 59-92

−25.5

SMC

L 60-88

−3.5

LMU

W 90-89

+6.5

PORT

W 95-87

+15.5

ORST

L 73-83

−0.5

SEA

L 80-87

+0.5

WSU

W 88-79

+16.5

PORT

L 68-77

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

−15.5

UNCO

L 81-88

+15.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+11.5

SFA

L 60-63

−25.5

FRES

L 53-76

−21.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−9.5

ACU

L 63-71

−3.5

UVM

L 56-65

−21.5

CSUB

W 70-62

−15.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+17.5

RICE

W 84-62

+5.5

GONZ

L 56-96

−0.5

SMC

L 45-72

−24.5

SCU

L 63-82

−5.5

PAC

L 69-74

+4.5

USD

L 63-83

−3.5

L 60-80

−0.5

PORT

W 67-63

−17.5

GONZ

L 60-84

−6.5

WSU

L 79-95

+27.5

USD

L 88-92

+28.5

SEA

L 81-83

+24.5

PAC

L 59-92

+8.5

SMC

L 60-88

+3.5

LMU

W 90-89

+31.5

PORT

W 95-87

+31.5

ORST

L 73-83

+7.5

SEA

L 80-87

+21.5

WSU

W 88-79

+8.5

PORT

L 68-77

−9.5

over 15under 15avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W L L L L L W W L W W L L L L L L L L L L W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-2038%

L L L L L L L L L W W W W W L L L W L L L L W L W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

U U O O O O U O U O O O U U O U U U U U U O U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsHAW	W 60-59	-11.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 7	vsRICE	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsSDST	W 83-69	-16.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	vsORST	W 87-75	-13.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 24	vsAUB	L 73-84	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsSDSU	L 80-97	-2.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 27	vsCREI	L 66-76	+2.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsUSC	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	@UCLA	L 63-74	+8.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsUCD	W 104-62	-13.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 166
Dec 17	vsPORT	W 94-69	-19.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsGONZ	L 82-91	+12.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 173
Dec 28	vsOMA	W 80-57	-21.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 2	@MD	W 64-54	-1.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 118
Jan 5	@RUTG	L 85-88	-4.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 173
Jan 8	vsOSU	L 62-72	-1.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 134
Jan 13	@NEB	L 55-90	+10.5	L −24.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 17	vsMICH	L 71-81	+18.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 20	vsMSU	L 52-68	+10.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 120
Jan 25	@WASH	L 57-72	+7.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 129
Jan 28	vsUCLA	L 57-73	+4.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Feb 1	vsIOWA	L 66-84	+9.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 7	@PUR	L 64-68	+19.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 132
Feb 9	@IU	L 74-92	+10.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 166
Feb 14	vsPSU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 17	vsMINN	L 44-61	-3.5	L −20.5	136.5	U 105
Feb 21	@USC	W 71-70	+5.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 141
Feb 25	vsWIS	W 85-71	+5.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 156
Feb 28	@NU	L 62-63	+3.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 125
Mar 3	@ILL	L 54-80	+17.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsWASH	W 85-79	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 164
Mar 10	vsMD	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−10.5

RICE

W 67-63

−11.5

SDST

W 83-69

−2.5

ORST

W 87-75

−1.5

AUB

L 73-84

−6.5

SDSU

L 80-97

−19.5

CREI

L 66-76

−7.5

USC

L 77-82

−2.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−2.5

UCD

W 104-62

+28.5

PORT

W 94-69

+5.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+3.5

OMA

W 80-57

+1.5

W 64-54

+8.5

RUTG

L 85-88

−7.5

OSU

L 62-72

−11.5

NEB

L 55-90

−24.5

MICH

L 71-81

+8.5

MSU

L 52-68

−5.5

WASH

L 57-72

−7.5

UCLA

L 57-73

−11.5

IOWA

L 66-84

−8.5

PUR

L 64-68

+15.5

L 74-92

−7.5

PSU

W 83-72

+4.5

MINN

L 44-61

−20.5

USC

W 71-70

+6.5

WIS

W 85-71

+19.5

L 62-63

+2.5

ILL

L 54-80

−8.5

WASH

W 85-79

+7.5

L 60-70

−14.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−25.5

RICE

W 67-63

−15.5

SDST

W 83-69

+6.5

ORST

W 87-75

+20.5

AUB

L 73-84

+1.5

SDSU

L 80-97

+35.5

CREI

L 66-76

−8.5

USC

L 77-82

+4.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−9.5

UCD

W 104-62

+19.5

PORT

W 94-69

+8.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+17.5

OMA

W 80-57

−14.5

W 64-54

−28.5

RUTG

L 85-88

+33.5

OSU

L 62-72

−18.5

NEB

L 55-90

−1.5

MICH

L 71-81

−5.5

MSU

L 52-68

−19.5

WASH

L 57-72

−14.5

UCLA

L 57-73

−6.5

IOWA

L 66-84

+16.5

PUR

L 64-68

−12.5

L 74-92

+22.5

PSU

W 83-72

+9.5

MINN

L 44-61

−31.5

USC

W 71-70

−8.5

WIS

W 85-71

+3.5

L 62-63

−16.5

ILL

L 54-80

−13.5

WASH

W 85-79

+18.5

L 60-70

−9.5

over 14under 18avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oregon has the better starters

Position by position: Pepperdine 0, Oregon 2, even 3

PepperdineBetterOregon

G J. Williamson TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 58

ORESmall

G F. Payne TR15.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 88

G W. McClendon TR13.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Riley TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 78

F P. Majstorovic TR14.4 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 78

Even

F A. Meadow TR12 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 77

F Y. Fritz TR9.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 58

Even

F S. Stewart6.5 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64

F E. Meuser TR6.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 39

ORESmall

F T. Bol Bowen TR6.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 67

PepperdineBetterOregon

PEPP offense139th of 366 · -4.2

ORESmall

ORE defense39th of 366 · +3.0

PEPP defense216th of 366 · -5.6

OREBig

ORE offense66th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt+1.6 · 2 players

ORESmall

Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+1.2 · 3 players

ORESmall

Frontcourt+2.6 · 3 players

Bench-1.6 · 3 players

OREBig

Bench+1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPEPP betterORE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pepperdine

Guards

J. Williamson26 min · TRW. McClendon25 min · TRE. Haywood19 min · TRD. Mager10 minA. BalianNewC. ChouNew

Forwards

P. Majstorovic32 min · TRY. Fritz26 min · TRE. Meuser21 min · TRA. Robinson10 min · TRA. ConstanzaNewF. BiberovicNew

Oregon

Guards

F. Payne35 min · TRT. Riley32 min · TRJ. Easter18 min · TRW. Lin18 minJ. Johnson12 min · TRR. GonzalesNew

Forwards

A. Meadow30 min · TRS. Stewart23 minT. Bol Bowen19 min · TRP. Compton14 min · TRD. Aristode13 min · TRL. Johnson6 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PEPP70.4 #277

ORE70.8 #267

Points per possession

PEPP1.00 #320

ORE1.06 #235

Pace (possessions)

PEPP70.0 #117

ORE66.8 #287

Shooting

Effective FG%

PEPP47.6 #323

ORE49.5 #271

3-point %

PEPP31.4 #310

ORE32.0 #277

3-point attempt rate

PEPP39.2 #187

ORE42.8 #121

Free throw rate

PEPP33.9 #216

ORE35.0 #181

Possessions

Turnover rate

PEPP18.3 #288

ORE17.6 #244

Offensive rebound rate

PEPP29.1 #234

ORE32.3 #114

Assists per game

PEPP13.6 #176

ORE14.3 #126

Defense

Points allowed

PEPP79.7 #311

ORE73.9 #155

Points allowed per possession

PEPP1.14 #303

ORE1.11 #249

Opponent effective FG%

PEPP54.2 #306

ORE50.9 #148

Opponent 3-point %

PEPP35.5 #276

ORE33.4 #144

Turnovers forced

PEPP16.5 #184

ORE15.8 #231

Defensive rebound rate

PEPP66.0 #318

ORE67.7 #271

Steals per game

PEPP5.9 #246

ORE6.1 #231

Blocks per game

PEPP2.8 #269

ORE3.9 #79

PEPP		ORE
Scoring
70.4 #277	Points per game	70.8 #267
1.00 #320	Points per possession	1.06 #235
70.0 #117	Pace (possessions)	66.8 #287
Shooting
47.6 #323	Effective FG%	49.5 #271
31.4 #310	3-point %	32.0 #277
39.2 #187	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #121
33.9 #216	Free throw rate	35.0 #181
Possessions
18.3 #288	Turnover rate	17.6 #244
29.1 #234	Offensive rebound rate	32.3 #114
13.6 #176	Assists per game	14.3 #126
Defense
79.7 #311	Points allowed	73.9 #155
1.14 #303	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #249
54.2 #306	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #148
35.5 #276	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #144
16.5 #184	Turnovers forced	15.8 #231
66.0 #318	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #271
5.9 #246	Steals per game	6.1 #231
2.8 #269	Blocks per game	3.9 #79

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pepperdine

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Portland68–77
Wvs Washington St88–79
Lvs Seattle U80–87
L@ Oregon St73–83
W@ Portland95–87

A week or more of rest.

Oregon

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Maryland60–70
Wvs Washington85–79
L@ Illinois54–80
L@ Northwestern62–63
Wvs Wisconsin85–71

A week or more of rest.

Pepperdine Waves at Oregon Ducks

What could decide it: ORE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Pepperdine

Oregon

Oregon has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pepperdine

Oregon