1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. HOW @ YALE
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Howard Bison at Yale Bulldogs

John J. Lee Amphitheater · at Yale
#197HOWHoward
@
#126YALEYale
LineYALE -6.5moved 1 toward YALE
Total152.5up 1 from 151.5
HOWThis seasonYALE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects YALE 78–70 · win probability YALE 77%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
YALE -6.5
moved 1 toward YALE
Total
152.5
model 148.5 · Under by 4
Model edge
YALE by 2
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: YALE has more of the edges

HOW 2, YALE 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
HOW has played the 348th-hardest schedule, YALE the 141st. A record against a soft schedule means less
YALESmall
YALE offense vs HOW defense
Offense 125th of 366 against a defense 206th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: HOW plays 69.5 a game (144th fastest), YALE 66.4 (301st). Faster games mean more points
HOWSmall
Three-pointers
HOW hits 35.8% and allows 31.4%; YALE hits 39.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 34.7% and 36.1% of their shots
HOWSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HOW 76%, YALE 42%. Transfers in: HOW 2, YALE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
YALESmall
HOW offense vs YALE defense
Offense 196th of 366 against a defense 136th, on the model’s ratings
YALESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HOW 19.3%, YALE 14.0%. Forced: HOW 20.7%, YALE 16.2%
YALESmall
Home court
YALE at home. This season: YALE 0-0 at home, HOW 0-0 away
YALESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: HOW 43.5, YALE 35.1. Allowed: HOW 38.4, YALE 26.8
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HOW 35.8%, YALE 34.2%. Defensive: HOW 68.6%, YALE 70.3%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: HOW 50.9 and allows 48.7; YALE 55.6 and allows 51.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5317166%50%50%
Non-conference games at this spread173667%50%49%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward YALE
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
HOW +220 · YALE -275
Line movement
Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened YALE -5.5 · now YALE -6.5 · moved 1 toward YALEmodel YALE -8.5
Opened 151.5 · now 152.5 · moved 1 upmodel 148.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 152.5TotalUnder 152.5
Bets
Money
HOWWinnerYALE
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
HOWYALEOverUnderHOWYALE
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-6-110+6-110152.5-115152.5-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-6.5-115+6.5-110151.5-112151.5-114+225-295
BovadaBovada-6-110+6-110152.5-115152.5-105——
DraftKingsDK-6.5-115+6.5-105152.5-112152.5-108+215-265
FanDuelFD-6.5-110+6.5-110152.5-115152.5-105+220-275
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-6-106+6-106152.5-113152.5-103——
Prices from The Odds API, updated Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadYALE -6.5YALE -8.3YALE +1.8
Total152.5148.5Under 4.0
Projected score—HOW 70.1 · YALE 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadYALE -4.8—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreHOW 32.3 · YALE 37.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Howard 1, Yale 1, even 3
HowardBetterYale
G C. Gillus10.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 4.7 ast Score 52
Even
G T. Mullin11.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 63
G C. Taylor17.2 pts · 6.4 reb · 3 ast Score 89
HOWBig
G J. Brathwaite6.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 35
G A. Cotton8.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 15
No call
G C. Wallace1.2 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
G O. Okojie10.3 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 61
YALESmall
F R. Fox9.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 76
C G. Kocevar TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31
No call
F J. Sullivan1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
HowardBetterYale
HOW offense196th of 366 · -6.1
YALESmall
YALE defense136th of 366 · -2.8
HOW defense206th of 366 · -5.2
YALESmall
YALE offense125th of 366 · -3.3
Backcourt-1.0 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
YALESmall
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Bench-3.1 · 5 players
YALESmall
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestHOW betterYALE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Howard
Guards
C. Gillus34 minC. Taylor32 minA. Cotton27 minO. Okojie26 minI. Brown10 minJ. Johnson6 min
Forwards
C. Robins6 minJ. Johnson3 minJ. LawsonNewD. HarrisNew
Centers
G. Kocevar13 min · TRJ. Brown6 min · TR
Yale
Guards
T. Mullin28 minJ. Brathwaite19 minC. Wallace4 minJ. Basima3 minA. Loving3 minJ. Tsai2 min
Forwards
R. Fox18 minJ. Sullivan5 minD. Ogunyemi3 minC. MayNewT. WinklerNewC. BolteNew
Centers
J. OwareNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HOWYALE
Scoring
75.5 #155Points per game80.1 #64
1.09 #162Points per possession1.21 #10
69.5 #144Pace (possessions)66.4 #301
Shooting
50.9 #198Effective FG%55.6 #26
35.8 #683-point %39.4 #3
34.7 #2833-point attempt rate36.1 #247
43.5 #17Free throw rate35.1 #172
Possessions
19.3 #331Turnover rate14.0 #22
35.8 #28Offensive rebound rate34.2 #62
15.2 #78Assists per game15.8 #53
Defense
69.3 #51Points allowed71.8 #102
1.00 #24Points allowed per possession1.08 #166
48.7 #53Opponent effective FG%51.6 #192
31.4 #41Opponent 3-point %35.0 #250
20.7 #13Turnovers forced16.2 #207
68.6 #223Defensive rebound rate70.3 #147
8.3 #29Steals per game5.3 #314
3.7 #113Blocks per game3.2 #193
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Howard

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-3 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan80–101
  • Wvs UMBC86–83
  • Wvs NC Central70–63
  • Wvs SC State78–61
  • W@ Norfolk St84–76

A week or more of rest.

Yale

22-7 in 2025-26 overall · 12-4 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington67–68
  • Lvs Penn84–88
  • Wvs Cornell88–76
  • Wvs Princeton78–53
  • W@ Columbia60–54

A week or more of rest.