Hope Coliseum · at West Virginia
#346NIANiagara
@
#47WVUWest Virginia
LineWVU -28.5no move
Total140.5up 1 from 139.5
Season records: Niagara and West Virginia
NIAThis seasonWVU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WVU 83–53 · win probability WVU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
WVU -28.5
no move since the open
Total
140.5
model 136.0 · Under by 4.5
Model edge
WVU by 2
model vs market
Public on the spread
96% NIA
94% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WVU has more of the edges

NIA 0, WVU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WVUBig
NIA offense vs WVU defense
Offense 355th of 366 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NIA has played the 334th-hardest schedule, WVU the 62nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
WVUBig
WVU offense vs NIA defense
Offense 77th of 366 against a defense 278th, on the model’s ratings
WVUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NIA 24.8%, WVU 30.5%. Defensive: NIA 67.1%, WVU 71.4%
WVUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NIA 26.6, WVU 35.1. Allowed: NIA 33.8, WVU 29.3
WVUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NIA 50.5 and allows 52.8; WVU 51.6 and allows 48.5
WVUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NIA 18.9%, WVU 16.8%. Forced: NIA 16.6%, WVU 17.8%
WVUSmall
Home court
WVU at home. This season: WVU 0-0 at home, NIA 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NIA 15%, WVU 23%. Transfers in: NIA 5, WVU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
NIA hits 33.7% and allows 35.3%; WVU hits 33.0% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 40.5% and 43.0% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 64 possessions: NIA plays 63.4 a game (364th fastest), WVU 65.3 (336th). Faster games mean more points

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5357072%50%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
NIA +5000 · WVU -50000
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened WVU -28.5 · now WVU -28.5 · moved 0.5 toward NIAmodel WVU -30.5
Opened 139.5 · now 141 · moved 1.5 upmodel 136
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
NIA +28.5SpreadWVU -28.5
Bets
Money
Over 140.5TotalUnder 140.5
Bets
Money
NIAWinnerWVU
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
NIAWVUOverUnderNIAWVU
BetMGMMGM-28.5-115+28.5-105140.5-115140.5-105+3300-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-27.5-105+27.5-115141-115141-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-28.5-108+28.5-118141.5-114141.5-109——
BetUSBetUS-27.5-105+27.5-115141-115141-105——
BovadaBovada-28-105+28-115140-120140+100——
DraftKingsDK-28.5-112+28.5-108140.5-115140.5-105+5000-100000
FanDuelFD-28.5-118+28.5-104141.5-104141.5-118+5500-50000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-27.5-101+27.5-111141-113141-103——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadWVU -28.5WVU -30.5WVU +2.0
Total140.5136.0Under 4.5
Projected score—NIA 52.7 · WVU 83.2

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadWVU -18.0—
1H total63.7—
1H projected scoreNIA 22.8 · WVU 40.8—

West Virginia has the better starters

Position by position: Niagara 0, West Virginia 5, even 0
NiagaraBetterWest Virginia
G T. Walters7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 27
WVUBig
G F. Bizjack TR17.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 88
G C. Farrell TR6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 11
WVUBig
G S. Traore TR9 pts · 3.4 reb · 2 ast Score 46
G L. Woods TR4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 15
WVUBig
G M. Somerville TR8 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54
G B. Rieber TR3.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 7
WVUBig
F B. Lorient11.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 91
G T. Blackshear TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 43
WVUBig
F J. Buchanan TR12.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
NiagaraBetterWest Virginia
NIA offense355th of 366 · -13.3
WVUBig
WVU defense19th of 366 · +5.5
NIA defense278th of 366 · -7.0
WVUBig
WVU offense77th of 366 · +0.9
Backcourt-8.7 · 5 players
WVUBig
Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+6.2 · 2 players
Bench-1.5 · 2 players
WVUBig
Bench+1.6 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestNIA betterWVU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Niagara
Guards
T. Walters22 minC. Farrell21 min · TRL. Woods18 min · TRB. Rieber16 min · TRT. Blackshear14 min · TRG. Dalmau7 min
Forwards
V. Todorovic10 min · TRN. SlingerlandNewF. RottaNewB. AngelettiNewD. EmokhareNew
West Virginia
Guards
F. Bizjack34 min · TRS. Traore29 min · TRM. Somerville26 min · TRJ. Sanon21 min · TRA. Jenkins16 minM. FeenaneNew
Forwards
B. Lorient29 minJ. Buchanan28 min · TRM. OlejaszNew
Centers
M. Sylla21 min · TRA. DioumNewA. SeiniNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NIAWVU
Scoring
63.3 #355Points per game70.6 #271
1.00 #330Points per possession1.08 #183
63.4 #364Pace (possessions)65.3 #336
Shooting
50.5 #214Effective FG%51.6 #166
33.7 #1883-point %33.0 #227
40.5 #1593-point attempt rate43.0 #118
26.6 #353Free throw rate35.1 #173
Possessions
18.9 #318Turnover rate16.8 #188
24.8 #344Offensive rebound rate30.5 #178
13.8 #162Assists per game12.8 #228
Defense
71.7 #98Points allowed65.7 #11
1.13 #300Points allowed per possession1.01 #34
52.8 #260Opponent effective FG%48.5 #50
35.3 #268Opponent 3-point %34.3 #201
16.6 #177Turnovers forced17.8 #108
67.1 #297Defensive rebound rate71.4 #86
5.6 #284Steals per game6.3 #195
2.8 #254Blocks per game3.1 #204

Niagara

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack66–73
  • Wvs Quinnipiac78–76
  • L@ Rider62–67
  • L@ Mount St Marys63–76
  • Wvs Iona70–68

A week or more of rest.

West Virginia

21-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Oklahoma89–82
  • Wvs Creighton87–70
  • Wvs Stanford82–77
  • Lvs BYU48–68
  • Wvs UCF77–62

A week or more of rest.