1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. FGCU @ UCF
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at UCF Knights

Addition Financial Arena · at UCF
#266FGCUFGCU
@
#39UCFUCF
LineUCF -22.5no move
Total153.5up 2 from 151.5
FGCUThis seasonUCF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCF 92–66 · win probability UCF 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
UCF -22.5
no move since the open
Total
153.5
model 158.6 · Over by 5
Model edge
UCF by 3.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
87% FGCU
85% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCF has more of the edges

FGCU 0, UCF 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCFBig
UCF offense vs FGCU defense
Offense 18th of 366 against a defense 274th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
FGCU has played the 231st-hardest schedule, UCF the 41st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCFBig
FGCU offense vs UCF defense
Offense 259th of 366 against a defense 93rd, on the model’s ratings
UCFBig
Three-pointers
FGCU hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; UCF hits 36.2% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 38.4% and 34.8% of their shots
UCFSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: FGCU 29.1, UCF 30.5. Allowed: FGCU 38.3, UCF 34.9
UCFSmall
Home court
UCF at home. This season: UCF 0-0 at home, FGCU 0-0 away
UCFSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FGCU 31.1%, UCF 35.0%. Defensive: FGCU 71.8%, UCF 71.2%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: FGCU 52.0 and allows 53.4; UCF 52.6 and allows 52.1
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: FGCU plays 69.9 a game (122nd fastest), UCF 71.2 (63rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FGCU 16.0%, UCF 16.0%. Forced: FGCU 16.4%, UCF 15.7%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FGCU 25%, UCF 20%. Transfers in: FGCU 3, UCF 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
FGCU +2100 · UCF -7250
Line movement
Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened UCF -22.5 · now UCF -21.5 · moved 1 toward FGCUmodel UCF -26
Opened 151.5 · now 153.5 · moved 2 upmodel 158.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
FGCU +22.5SpreadUCF -22.5
Bets
Money
FGCUWinnerUCF
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
FGCUUCFOverUnderFGCUUCF
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-21.5+100+21.5-120153.5-110153.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-22.5-115+22.5-110151.5-113151.5-113——
BovadaBovada-21.5+100+21.5-120153.5-110153.5-110——
DraftKingsDK-22.5-112+22.5-108153.5-110153.5-110+2000-6500
FanDuelFD-21.5-102+21.5-120152.5-110152.5-110+2200-8000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-21.5+104+21.5-116153.5-108153.5-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated Nov 1, 8:00 PM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadUCF -22.5UCF -25.9UCF +3.4
Total153.5158.6Over 5.1
Projected score—FGCU 66.3 · UCF 92.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCF -15.3—
1H total74.1—
1H projected scoreFGCU 29.4 · UCF 44.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UCF has the better starters

Position by position: FGCU 0, UCF 2, even 3
FGCUBetterUCF
G E. Brooks TR12.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 47
Even
G C. Vasko TR11 pts · 4.7 reb · 4.1 ast Score 52
G D. Williams6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 21
UCFBig
G D. Johnson TR23.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 100
G G. Washington2.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F L. Walker TR18.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
F G. Tanner2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
F I. Malone TR10.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 82
C T. Guillouette2.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26
UCFBig
F C. Abass TR8.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70
FGCUBetterUCF
FGCU offense259th of 366 · -8.0
UCFBig
UCF defense93rd of 366 · -0.4
FGCU defense274th of 366 · -6.9
UCFBig
UCF offense18th of 366 · +8.0
Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players
UCFBig
Backcourt+7.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
UCFBig
Frontcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
UCFSmall
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestFGCU betterUCF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
FGCU
Guards
E. Brooks30 min · TRD. Williams19 minG. Washington8 minM. McCarthy2 minB. WashingtonNewN. SermpezisNew
Forwards
G. Tanner8 minC. Outlaw2 min · TRB. LucasNewE. BarlowNewC. KoniecznyNewT. WestercampNew
Centers
T. Guillouette13 minJ. Houser6 min · TR
UCF
Guards
C. Vasko33 min · TRD. Johnson26 min · TRM. Dean17 min · TRC. Pacheco16 minA. DeanNewT. JonesNew
Forwards
L. Walker34 min · TRI. Malone23 min · TRC. Abass20 min · TRJ. Asemota8 min · TRL. GivanNewD. MannNew
Centers
J. Bol19 minE. Hulsewe5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FGCUUCF
Scoring
76.6 #130Points per game80.7 #53
1.10 #138Points per possession1.13 #77
69.9 #122Pace (possessions)71.2 #63
Shooting
52.0 #147Effective FG%52.6 #123
33.2 #2193-point %36.2 #49
38.4 #2023-point attempt rate34.8 #281
29.1 #331Free throw rate30.5 #295
Possessions
16.0 #135Turnover rate16.0 #137
31.1 #161Offensive rebound rate35.0 #47
14.5 #115Assists per game15.7 #56
Defense
78.0 #266Points allowed78.3 #274
1.11 #254Points allowed per possession1.10 #219
53.4 #280Opponent effective FG%52.1 #221
35.5 #275Opponent 3-point %33.9 #176
16.4 #191Turnovers forced15.7 #241
71.8 #73Defensive rebound rate71.2 #96
7.7 #66Steals per game5.6 #285
3.4 #153Blocks per game3.0 #225
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

FGCU

14-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs C Arkansas63–73
  • Wvs Lipscomb77–53
  • Wvs North Alabama69–58
  • L@ Stetson63–78
  • L@ North Florida70–76

A week or more of rest.

UCF

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCLA71–75
  • Lvs Arizona59–81
  • Wvs Cincinnati66–65
  • L@ West Virginia62–77
  • Lvs Oklahoma St104–111

A week or more of rest.