1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. YALE @ UCF
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Yale Bulldogs at UCF Knights

Addition Financial Arena · at UCF
#126YALEYale
@
#39UCFUCF
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
YALEThis seasonUCF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCF 88–71 · win probability UCF 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 159.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: YALE has more of the edges

YALE 3, UCF 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
YALEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: YALE 35.1, UCF 30.5. Allowed: YALE 26.8, UCF 34.9
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: YALE plays 66.4 a game (301st fastest), UCF 71.2 (63rd). Faster games mean more points
UCFBig
UCF offense vs YALE defense
Offense 18th of 366 against a defense 136th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
YALE has played the 141st-hardest schedule, UCF the 41st. A record against a soft schedule means less
YALESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: YALE 14.0%, UCF 16.0%. Forced: YALE 16.2%, UCF 15.7%
YALESmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: YALE 55.6 and allows 51.6; UCF 52.6 and allows 52.1
UCFSmall
Home court
UCF at home. This season: UCF 0-0 at home, YALE 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: YALE 42%, UCF 20%. Transfers in: YALE 0, UCF 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: YALE 34.2%, UCF 35.0%. Defensive: YALE 70.3%, UCF 71.2%
Even
YALE offense vs UCF defense
Offense 125th of 366 against a defense 93rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
YALE hits 39.4% and allows 35.0%; UCF hits 36.2% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 36.1% and 34.8% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCF -16.6—
Total—159.2—
Projected score—YALE 71.3 · UCF 87.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCF -9.8—
1H total74.4—
1H projected scoreYALE 32.3 · UCF 42.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UCF has the better starters

Position by position: Yale 0, UCF 1, even 4
YaleBetterUCF
G T. Mullin11.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 63
Even
G C. Vasko TR11 pts · 4.7 reb · 4.1 ast Score 52
G J. Brathwaite6.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 35
UCFBig
G D. Johnson TR23.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 100
G C. Wallace1.2 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F L. Walker TR18.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
F R. Fox9.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 76
Even
F I. Malone TR10.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 82
F J. Sullivan1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Abass TR8.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70
YaleBetterUCF
YALE offense125th of 366 · -3.3
Even
UCF defense93rd of 366 · -0.4
YALE defense136th of 366 · -2.8
UCFSmall
UCF offense18th of 366 · +8.0
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
UCFBig
Backcourt+7.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
UCFBig
Frontcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
UCFSmall
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestYALE betterUCF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Yale
Guards
T. Mullin28 minJ. Brathwaite19 minC. Wallace4 minJ. Basima3 minA. Loving3 minJ. Tsai2 min
Forwards
R. Fox18 minJ. Sullivan5 minD. Ogunyemi3 minC. MayNewT. WinklerNewC. BolteNew
Centers
J. OwareNew
UCF
Guards
C. Vasko33 min · TRD. Johnson26 min · TRM. Dean17 min · TRC. Pacheco16 minA. DeanNewT. JonesNew
Forwards
L. Walker34 min · TRI. Malone23 min · TRC. Abass20 min · TRJ. Asemota8 min · TRL. GivanNewD. MannNew
Centers
J. Bol19 minE. Hulsewe5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
YALEUCF
Scoring
80.1 #64Points per game80.7 #53
1.21 #10Points per possession1.13 #77
66.4 #301Pace (possessions)71.2 #63
Shooting
55.6 #26Effective FG%52.6 #123
39.4 #33-point %36.2 #49
36.1 #2473-point attempt rate34.8 #281
35.1 #172Free throw rate30.5 #295
Possessions
14.0 #22Turnover rate16.0 #137
34.2 #62Offensive rebound rate35.0 #47
15.8 #53Assists per game15.7 #56
Defense
71.8 #102Points allowed78.3 #274
1.08 #166Points allowed per possession1.10 #219
51.6 #192Opponent effective FG%52.1 #221
35.0 #250Opponent 3-point %33.9 #176
16.2 #207Turnovers forced15.7 #241
70.3 #147Defensive rebound rate71.2 #96
5.3 #314Steals per game5.6 #285
3.2 #193Blocks per game3.0 #225
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Yale

22-7 in 2025-26 overall · 12-4 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington67–68
  • Lvs Penn84–88
  • Wvs Cornell88–76
  • Wvs Princeton78–53
  • W@ Columbia60–54

A week or more of rest.

UCF

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCLA71–75
  • Lvs Arizona59–81
  • Wvs Cincinnati66–65
  • L@ West Virginia62–77
  • Lvs Oklahoma St104–111

A week or more of rest.