1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. HC @ VILL
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Holy Cross Crusaders at Villanova Wildcats

Finneran Pavilion · at Villanova
#317HCHoly Cross
@
#32VILLVillanova
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HCThis seasonVILL
0-0Record0-1
0-0ATS0-1
0-0O/U1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VILL 88–58 · win probability VILL 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VILL has more of the edges

HC 0, VILL 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VILLBig
HC offense vs VILL defense
Offense 335th of 366 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings
VILLBig
VILL offense vs HC defense
Offense 39th of 366 against a defense 269th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
HC has played the 225th-hardest schedule, VILL the 35th. A record against a soft schedule means less
VILLBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: HC 49.8 and allows 54.8; VILL 53.8 and allows 51.4
VILLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HC 15.3%, VILL 15.0%. Forced: HC 14.1%, VILL 18.6%
VILLSmall
Three-pointers
HC hits 32.5% and allows 34.0%; VILL hits 35.7% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 37.3% and 45.7% of their shots
VILLSmall
Home court
VILL at home. This season: VILL 0-0 at home, HC 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HC 51%, VILL 33%. Transfers in: HC 0, VILL 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: HC plays 65.8 a game (320th fastest), VILL 67.3 (270th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: HC 31.5, VILL 30.9. Allowed: HC 27.6, VILL 30.0
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HC 21.9%, VILL 32.2%. Defensive: HC 73.0%, VILL 68.2%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VILL -30.6—
Total—145.9—
Projected score—HC 57.7 · VILL 88.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVILL -18.1—
1H total68.3—
1H projected scoreHC 25.1 · VILL 43.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Villanova has the better starters

Position by position: Holy Cross 0, Villanova 3, even 2
Holy CrossBetterVillanova
G J. St. Germain4.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
VILLBig
G J. Fiegen TR11 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 82
F J. Nugent11.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
Even
G D. Simmons TR16.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 63
F A. Richard4.9 pts · 4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 1
VILLBig
G T. Perkins18 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 100
F D. Ryan4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 21
VILLBig
F D. Royal TR5 pts · 8 reb · 0 ast Score 100
F C. Hare2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F K. Evans TR13.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2 ast Score 95
Holy CrossBetterVillanova
HC offense335th of 366 · -10.9
VILLBig
VILL defense30th of 366 · +3.5
HC defense269th of 366 · -6.8
VILLBig
VILL offense39th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt-1.3 · 1 player
VILLBig
Backcourt+7.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-6.1 · 4 players
VILLBig
Frontcourt+6.1 · 2 players
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
VILLBig
Bench+3.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestHC betterVILL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Holy Cross
Guards
J. St. Germain15 minA. Mejia1 minA. AlijosiusNewK. HansonNewT. WilsonNewJ. GermanyNew
Forwards
J. Nugent30 minA. Richard27 minD. Ryan13 minC. Hare7 minJ. Haigh6 minE. Clark1 min
Centers
K. MgbejioforNew
Villanova
Guards
J. Fiegen38 min · TRD. Simmons36 min · TRT. Perkins35 minE. Crawford26 min · TRW. Chiddick3 minB. MullerNew
Forwards
D. Royal32 min · TRK. Evans31 min · TRM. Hodge28 minA. Samb6 min · TR
Centers
N. OnyekwereNewL. SuigoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HCVILL
Scoring
67.9 #314Points per game77.1 #113
1.03 #288Points per possession1.15 #64
65.8 #320Pace (possessions)67.3 #270
Shooting
49.8 #248Effective FG%53.8 #74
32.5 #2523-point %35.7 #77
37.3 #2253-point attempt rate45.7 #52
31.5 #268Free throw rate30.9 #284
Possessions
15.3 #83Turnover rate15.0 #65
21.9 #356Offensive rebound rate32.2 #118
10.7 #346Assists per game15.5 #66
Defense
74.8 #182Points allowed71.2 #82
1.14 #305Points allowed per possession1.06 #105
54.8 #324Opponent effective FG%51.4 #181
34.0 #181Opponent 3-point %33.4 #148
14.1 #330Turnovers forced18.6 #70
73.0 #37Defensive rebound rate68.2 #246
5.5 #304Steals per game7.4 #93
1.7 #355Blocks per game2.1 #340
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Holy Cross

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Lehigh66–69
  • W@ Lafayette82–77
  • Lvs Loyola MD62–76
  • L@ Boston U63–78
  • W@ Bucknell72–63

A week or more of rest.

Villanova

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah State76–86
  • Lvs Georgetown64–78
  • Wvs Xavier91–78
  • W@ DePaul76–57
  • L@ St John's57–89

5 days since their last game.