Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 7:00 PM ETKnott Arena · at Mount St Marys

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Loyola MD and Mount St Marys
L-MD	This season	MSM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSM 76–69 · win probability MSM 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSM has more of the edges

L-MD 1, MSM 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MSMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: L-MD 50.4 and allows 54.7; MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2

L-MDBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: L-MD 15.4%, MSM 22.4%. Forced: L-MD 15.4%, MSM 15.3%

MSMSmall

L-MD offense vs MSM defense

Offense 307th of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings

MSMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: L-MD 27.6%, MSM 32.3%. Defensive: L-MD 71.0%, MSM 70.9%

MSMSmall

Home court

MSM at home. This season: MSM 0-0 at home, L-MD 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: L-MD plays 69.3 a game (165th fastest), MSM 68.0 (231st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: L-MD 29.9, MSM 33.3. Allowed: L-MD 32.7, MSM 37.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: L-MD 33%, MSM 42%. Transfers in: L-MD 5, MSM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

L-MD hits 32.5% and allows 32.8%; MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 47.2% and 42.6% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

L-MD has played the 299th-hardest schedule, MSM the 291st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

MSM offense vs L-MD defense

Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 313th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSM -6.5	—
Total	—	144.8	—
Projected score	—	L-MD 69.2 · MSM 75.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSM -3.7	—
1H total	67.8	—
1H projected score	L-MD 32 · MSM 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
L-MD LWLWL	16-14	53%	8-8	—
MSM WWLWL	18-13	58%	7-5	—

Venue/role: L-MD away; MSM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
L-MD OOUUO	17-13	57%	10-20
MSM OUUUU	10-21	32%	14-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
L-MD	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
MSM	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Loyola MD

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	@ TOW	L56–67LU
Nov 20	@ UVA	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs RID	No recent meeting

Mount St Marys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ VT	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs LEH	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs WMU	L60–83LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

L-MD 2–3 MSMMSM leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · L-MD 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 13, 2025-26	MSM 81 @ L-MD 73	L-MD +2.5	MSM W
Dec 14, 2024-25	L-MD 77 @ MSM 69	MSM -3.5	L-MD W
Dec 9, 2023-24	MSM 77 @ L-MD 64	L-MD +1.5	MSM W
Dec 10, 2022-23	L-MD 34 @ MSM 51	MSM -4.5	MSM W
Dec 4, 2021-22	MSM 55 @ L-MD 61	L-MD -3	L-MD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Loyola MD

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L L W L L L W L L L L L L W L L W L W W L W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L L W W W L W L L L W L L W W W W L W W L W L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

U U U O O U O O O O O U U O U O U O U U O O O U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTOW	L 56-67	+8.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsNJIT	L 64-66	-10.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsSTO	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 137
Nov 16	@FAIR	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 19	@DUQ	L 78-92	+14.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 170
Nov 21	@UK	L 46-88	+35.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 30	vsCOPP	W 95-84	-9.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@HAMP	L 71-93	+6.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 164
Dec 9	@VMI	L 70-86	-2.5	L −18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 13	vsMSM	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 21	@GMU	L 79-86	+23.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	@AMER	L 69-84	+8.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	vsLAF	L 64-79	+1.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	@ARMY	W 84-76	+4.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	@BUCK	L 67-70	+6.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsCOLG	L 80-86	+8.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 17	vsBU	W 74-57	+1.5	W +18.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 19	@LEH	L 81-88	+3.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsBUCK	W 67-62	-2.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 129
Jan 28	vsAMER	W 77-68	+4.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	@NAVY	L 71-87	+9.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 158
Feb 4	vsLEH	W 89-84	-2.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 173
Feb 7	@BU	L 69-78	+5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	@LAF	W 68-54	+3.5	W +17.5	147.5	U 122
Feb 15	vsHC	W 83-73	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 18	vsARMY	L 77-87	-4.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 164
Feb 21	@COLG	L 98-101	+8.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 199
Feb 25	vsNAVY	L 51-78	+6.5	L −20.5	147.5	U 129
Feb 28	@HC	W 76-62	+1.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 138
Mar 5	@COLG	L 77-90	+6.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−2.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−12.5

STO

W 74-63

+4.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+2.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+0.5

L 46-88

−6.5

COPP

W 95-84

+1.5

HAMP

L 71-93

−15.5

VMI

L 70-86

−18.5

MSM

L 73-81

−5.5

GMU

L 79-86

+16.5

AMER

L 69-84

−6.5

LAF

L 64-79

−13.5

ARMY

W 84-76

+12.5

BUCK

L 67-70

+3.5

COLG

L 80-86

+2.5

W 74-57

+18.5

LEH

L 81-88

−3.5

BUCK

W 67-62

+2.5

AMER

W 77-68

+13.5

NAVY

L 71-87

−6.5

LEH

W 89-84

+2.5

L 69-78

−3.5

LAF

W 68-54

+17.5

W 83-73

+5.5

ARMY

L 77-87

−14.5

COLG

L 98-101

+5.5

NAVY

L 51-78

−20.5

W 76-62

+15.5

COLG

L 77-90

−6.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−18.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−9.5

STO

W 74-63

−1.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+31.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+19.5

L 46-88

−25.5

COPP

W 95-84

+35.5

HAMP

L 71-93

+21.5

VMI

L 70-86

+4.5

MSM

L 73-81

+2.5

GMU

L 79-86

+18.5

AMER

L 69-84

−1.5

LAF

L 64-79

−9.5

ARMY

W 84-76

+13.5

BUCK

L 67-70

−6.5

COLG

L 80-86

+15.5

W 74-57

−17.5

LEH

L 81-88

+19.5

BUCK

W 67-62

−18.5

AMER

W 77-68

−2.5

NAVY

L 71-87

+14.5

LEH

W 89-84

+23.5

L 69-78

+1.5

LAF

W 68-54

−25.5

W 83-73

+9.5

ARMY

L 77-87

+14.5

COLG

L 98-101

+48.5

NAVY

L 51-78

−18.5

W 76-62

−13.5

COLG

L 77-90

+11.5

over 17under 13avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mount St Marys

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-21

32% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

W L W W W L L W L W W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-2132%

U U U U O U O O O U O O U U U U U O U U U U U O O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WVU	L 54-70	+19.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 7	vsBUCK	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@SFPA	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 16	@CIN	L 55-72	+25.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 19	@MD	L 90-95	+17.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 23	@WMU	L 60-83	+1.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 25	@OSU	L 60-113	+30.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 29	vsHOW	W 79-75	-2.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 3	vsSHU	L 80-87	+1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 167
Dec 5	@MRST	L 56-64	+8.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 120
Dec 13	@L-MD	W 81-73	-2.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 19	@DREX	L 67-75	+4.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 29	vsIONA	W 66-59	+2.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 125
Jan 2	@MRMK	L 65-75	+3.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	@QUIN	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 9	vsSPU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 135
Jan 11	vsSIE	L 50-67	+2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 117
Jan 17	@CAN	W 78-68	-3.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Jan 19	@NIA	W 68-58	-3.5	W +6.5	131.5	U 126
Jan 22	vsQUIN	L 62-77	+4.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 24	vsRID	W 71-61	-9.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 132
Jan 30	@SPU	L 58-66	+5.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 124
Feb 1	vsMAN	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	vsMRMK	L 70-87	+2.5	L −14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@IONA	W 83-76	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 159
Feb 13	@RID	W 65-55	-5.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 20	vsNIA	W 76-63	-7.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 139
Feb 22	vsCAN	W 68-47	-7.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 27	@SHU	L 69-77	+2.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Mar 1	@FAIR	W 69-47	+4.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 116
Mar 7	vsSIE	L 58-63	+2.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

+3.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−12.5

SFPA

W 74-66

+1.5

CIN

L 55-72

+8.5

L 90-95

+12.5

WMU

L 60-83

−21.5

OSU

L 60-113

−22.5

HOW

W 79-75

+1.5

SHU

L 80-87

−5.5

MRST

L 56-64

+0.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+5.5

DREX

L 67-75

−3.5

IONA

W 66-59

+9.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−6.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−3.5

SPU

W 70-65

+6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−14.5

CAN

W 78-68

+6.5

NIA

W 68-58

+6.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−10.5

RID

W 71-61

+0.5

SPU

L 58-66

−2.5

MAN

W 72-65

+0.5

MRMK

L 70-87

−14.5

IONA

W 83-76

+10.5

RID

W 65-55

+4.5

NIA

W 76-63

+5.5

CAN

W 68-47

+13.5

SHU

L 69-77

−5.5

FAIR

W 69-47

+26.5

SIE

L 58-63

−2.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

−12.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−8.5

SFPA

W 74-66

−9.5

CIN

L 55-72

−18.5

L 90-95

+39.5

WMU

L 60-83

−7.5

OSU

L 60-113

+21.5

HOW

W 79-75

+7.5

SHU

L 80-87

+14.5

MRST

L 56-64

−16.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+2.5

DREX

L 67-75

+4.5

IONA

W 66-59

−28.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−1.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−1.5

SPU

W 70-65

−6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−22.5

CAN

W 78-68

+10.5

NIA

W 68-58

−5.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−9.5

RID

W 71-61

−7.5

SPU

L 58-66

−14.5

MAN

W 72-65

−10.5

MRMK

L 70-87

+22.5

IONA

W 83-76

+17.5

RID

W 65-55

−17.5

NIA

W 76-63

+8.5

CAN

W 68-47

−22.5

SHU

L 69-77

−4.5

FAIR

W 69-47

−29.5

SIE

L 58-63

−14.5

over 10under 21avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mount St Marys has the better starters

Position by position: Loyola MD 0, Mount St Marys 1, even 4

Loyola MDBetterMount St Marys

G T. Cicero5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53

Even

G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 55

G C. Berg-McLean3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 21

MSMSmall

G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 49

F S. Springer4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 4

Even

G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast Score 2

F S. Emenalo3.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11

Even

G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 13

F D. Harrison TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 43

Loyola MDBetterMount St Marys

L-MD offense307th of 366 · -9.5

MSMSmall

MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8

L-MD defense313th of 366 · -8.1

Even

MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5

Backcourt-1.4 · 2 players

L-MDBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.7 · 3 players

MSMBig

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

Bench-3.1 · 5 players

Even

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestL-MD betterMSM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Loyola MD

Guards

T. Cicero14 minC. Berg-McLean14 minM. Ortega8 min · TRL. RickettsNewR. LongNewS. BiegNew

Forwards

S. Springer17 minS. Emenalo15 minD. Harrison12 min · TRE. Barnes8 minM. Hagedorn7 min · TRA. Huguet7 min · TR

Mount St Marys

Guards

A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR

Forwards

W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

L-MD73.7 #212

MSM67.9 #315

Points per possession

L-MD1.06 #227

MSM1.00 #327

Pace (possessions)

L-MD69.3 #165

MSM68.0 #231

Shooting

Effective FG%

L-MD50.4 #219

MSM50.6 #208

3-point %

L-MD32.5 #251

MSM32.7 #244

3-point attempt rate

L-MD47.2 #30

MSM42.6 #125

Free throw rate

L-MD29.9 #312

MSM33.3 #230

Possessions

Turnover rate

L-MD15.4 #101

MSM22.4 #364

Offensive rebound rate

L-MD27.6 #279

MSM32.3 #115

Assists per game

L-MD12.6 #246

MSM13.2 #196

Defense

Points allowed

L-MD78.5 #280

MSM71.0 #74

Points allowed per possession

L-MD1.14 #304

MSM1.05 #84

Opponent effective FG%

L-MD54.7 #321

MSM47.2 #23

Opponent 3-point %

L-MD32.8 #106

MSM32.3 #81

Turnovers forced

L-MD15.4 #261

MSM15.3 #262

Defensive rebound rate

L-MD71.0 #103

MSM70.9 #114

Steals per game

L-MD6.1 #221

MSM5.8 #261

Blocks per game

L-MD3.4 #156

MSM2.9 #248

L-MD		MSM
Scoring
73.7 #212	Points per game	67.9 #315
1.06 #227	Points per possession	1.00 #327
69.3 #165	Pace (possessions)	68.0 #231
Shooting
50.4 #219	Effective FG%	50.6 #208
32.5 #251	3-point %	32.7 #244
47.2 #30	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #125
29.9 #312	Free throw rate	33.3 #230
Possessions
15.4 #101	Turnover rate	22.4 #364
27.6 #279	Offensive rebound rate	32.3 #115
12.6 #246	Assists per game	13.2 #196
Defense
78.5 #280	Points allowed	71.0 #74
1.14 #304	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #84
54.7 #321	Opponent effective FG%	47.2 #23
32.8 #106	Opponent 3-point %	32.3 #81
15.4 #261	Turnovers forced	15.3 #262
71.0 #103	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #114
6.1 #221	Steals per game	5.8 #261
3.4 #156	Blocks per game	2.9 #248

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Loyola MD

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Colgate77–90
W@ Holy Cross76–62
Lvs Navy51–78
L@ Colgate98–101
Lvs Army77–87

A week or more of rest.

Mount St Marys

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena58–63
W@ Fairfield69–47
L@ Sacred Heart69–77
Wvs Canisius68–47
Wvs Niagara76–63

A week or more of rest.

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers

What could decide it: MSM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Loyola MD

Mount St Marys

Mount St Marys has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Loyola MD

Mount St Marys