1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. FUR @ HC
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Furman Paladins at Holy Cross Crusaders

Hart Center Arena · at Holy Cross
#152FURFurman
@
#317HCHoly Cross
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FURThis seasonHC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FUR 76–67 · win probability FUR 77%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FUR has more of the edges

FUR 5, HC 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FURBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: FUR 54.8 and allows 50.2; HC 49.8 and allows 54.8
FURBig
HC offense vs FUR defense
Offense 335th of 366 against a defense 146th, on the model’s ratings
FURSmall
FUR offense vs HC defense
Offense 166th of 366 against a defense 269th, on the model’s ratings
HCSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FUR 17.8%, HC 15.3%. Forced: FUR 13.7%, HC 14.1%
FURSmall
Three-pointers
FUR hits 33.4% and allows 32.3%; HC hits 32.5% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 46.5% and 37.3% of their shots
FURSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FUR 30.5%, HC 21.9%. Defensive: FUR 71.8%, HC 73.0%
HCSmall
Home court
HC at home. This season: HC 0-0 at home, FUR 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: FUR plays 67.2 a game (273rd fastest), HC 65.8 (320th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FUR 46%, HC 51%. Transfers in: FUR 4, HC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: FUR 32.7, HC 31.5. Allowed: FUR 28.9, HC 27.6
Context
Schedule so far
FUR has played the 224th-hardest schedule, HC the 225th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FUR -8.4—
Total—143.1—
Projected score—FUR 75.8 · HC 67.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFUR -5.1—
1H total67.0—
1H projected scoreFUR 36.1 · HC 30.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Furman has the better starters

Position by position: Furman 3, Holy Cross 1, even 1
FurmanBetterHoly Cross
G J. Bell TR12.3 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 76
FURBig
G J. St. Germain4.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
G C. Bowser5.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31
HCSmall
F J. Nugent11.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
G L. Toews TR6.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45
FURBig
F A. Richard4.9 pts · 4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 1
F M. Kell TR13.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59
FURBig
F D. Ryan4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 21
F C. Johnston9.6 pts · 8.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 66
No call
F C. Hare2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
FurmanBetterHoly Cross
FUR offense166th of 366 · -5.1
FURSmall
HC defense269th of 366 · -6.8
FUR defense146th of 366 · -3.2
FURBig
HC offense335th of 366 · -10.9
Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-1.3 · 1 player
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
FURBig
Frontcourt-6.1 · 4 players
Bench-2.5 · 5 players
HCSmall
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestFUR betterHC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Furman
Guards
J. Bell26 min · TRC. Bowser23 minL. Toews21 min · TRA. Franklin11 minC. O'Neal11 minG. LewisNew
Forwards
M. Kell30 min · TRC. Johnston29 minM. Smith12 minJ. Butler9 min · TRO. Ritger7 minD. MolnarNew
Holy Cross
Guards
J. St. Germain15 minA. Mejia1 minA. AlijosiusNewK. HansonNewT. WilsonNewJ. GermanyNew
Forwards
J. Nugent30 minA. Richard27 minD. Ryan13 minC. Hare7 minJ. Haigh6 minE. Clark1 min
Centers
K. MgbejioforNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FURHC
Scoring
74.9 #164Points per game67.9 #314
1.11 #114Points per possession1.03 #288
67.2 #273Pace (possessions)65.8 #320
Shooting
54.8 #43Effective FG%49.8 #248
33.4 #2043-point %32.5 #252
46.5 #403-point attempt rate37.3 #225
32.7 #246Free throw rate31.5 #268
Possessions
17.8 #260Turnover rate15.3 #83
30.5 #180Offensive rebound rate21.9 #356
14.9 #91Assists per game10.7 #346
Defense
72.5 #116Points allowed74.8 #182
1.08 #163Points allowed per possession1.14 #305
50.2 #112Opponent effective FG%54.8 #324
32.3 #75Opponent 3-point %34.0 #181
13.7 #342Turnovers forced14.1 #330
71.8 #72Defensive rebound rate73.0 #37
4.4 #357Steals per game5.5 #304
3.3 #183Blocks per game1.7 #355
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Furman

19-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn71–82
  • Wvs ETSU76–61
  • Wvs UNC Greensboro81–75
  • Wvs Samford86–81
  • L@ W Carolina67–86

A week or more of rest.

Holy Cross

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Lehigh66–69
  • W@ Lafayette82–77
  • Lvs Loyola MD62–76
  • L@ Boston U63–78
  • W@ Bucknell72–63

A week or more of rest.