NJIT Highlanders at VCU Rams: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ETSiegel Center · at VCU

#316NJITNJIT

#61VCUVCU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: NJIT and VCU
NJIT	This season	VCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VCU 87–60 · win probability VCU 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VCU has more of the edges

NJIT 0, VCU 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VCUBig

NJIT offense vs VCU defense

Offense 338th of 366 against a defense 50th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NJIT has played the 282nd-hardest schedule, VCU the 88th. A record against a soft schedule means less

VCUBig

VCU offense vs NJIT defense

Offense 65th of 366 against a defense 250th, on the model’s ratings

VCUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NJIT 33.2, VCU 42.0. Allowed: NJIT 37.9, VCU 32.8

VCUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NJIT 46.7 and allows 50.0; VCU 53.6 and allows 49.0

VCUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NJIT 26.2%, VCU 31.6%. Defensive: NJIT 67.9%, VCU 70.0%

VCUBig

Three-pointers

NJIT hits 30.4% and allows 32.3%; VCU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 40.1% and 43.8% of their shots

VCUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NJIT 17.1%, VCU 15.1%. Forced: NJIT 16.1%, VCU 17.0%

VCUSmall

Home court

VCU at home. This season: VCU 0-0 at home, NJIT 0-0 away

VCUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NJIT 39%, VCU 65%. Transfers in: NJIT 4, VCU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NJIT plays 67.9 a game (235th fastest), VCU 69.5 (147th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VCU -27.4	—
Total	—	146.7	—
Projected score	—	NJIT 59.6 · VCU 87.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VCU -16.2	—
1H total	68.6	—
1H projected score	NJIT 26.2 · VCU 42.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NJIT WLLLW	19-13	59%	12-7	—
VCU LWWWL	18-18	50%	7-10	—

Venue/role: NJIT away; VCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NJIT UUUUU	14-18	44%	15-17
VCU UUUOU	16-20	44%	28-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NJIT	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
VCU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

NJIT

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ FAIR	L53–74LU
Nov 18	@ FDU	W93–81WO
Nov 22	@ BC	No recent meeting

VCU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	@ SCU	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs PROV	No recent meeting
Dec 3	vs COPP	W101–58WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NJIT

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W L W W L L L L L L W L L L W W L W W L W W W W W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

W L W W L W W L L W W L L L W W L W W L W W W W W W L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

U U U O U O O U U O O U O U U O O U O O O O U U O U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FOR	W 72-61	+14.5	W +25.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsFAIR	L 53-74	+6.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 11	@L-MD	W 66-64	+10.5	W +12.5	139.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsFDU	W 93-81	-2.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 174
Nov 18	@DREX	L 43-75	+13.5	L −18.5	138.5	U 118
Nov 22	@NAVY	L 70-86	+17.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	@CIN	L 67-94	+34.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 161
Nov 26	@LOU	L 47-104	+44.5	L −12.5	158.5	U 151
Nov 28	@EMU	L 55-73	+14.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 128
Dec 5	@HPU	L 72-89	+28.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 161
Dec 10	vsNHVN	W 70-64	+2.5	W +8.5	130.5	O 134
Dec 13	vsSHU	L 49-65	+6.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 114
Dec 22	@BTLR	L 52-101	+32.5	L −16.5	149.5	O 153
Dec 31	@PENN	L 61-80	+14.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 3	@BING	W 73-65	+3.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 8	vsUNH	W 80-76	+2.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsME	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	130.5	O 144
Jan 15	@UML	W 73-64	+8.5	W +17.5	145.5	U 137
Jan 19	vsBRY	W 79-55	-1.5	W +22.5	132.5	O 134
Jan 22	@UMBC	L 74-87	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 161
Jan 29	@UALB	W 77-68	+5.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 31	@UVM	W 79-77	+13.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 156
Feb 5	vsUML	W 81-56	-1.5	W +23.5	149.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsBING	W 73-64	-8.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 12	@UNH	W 76-70	+2.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 146
Feb 14	@ME	W 67-58	-1.5	W +7.5	137.5	U 125
Feb 19	vsUALB	L 63-81	-3.5	L −21.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 21	vsUVM	L 64-70	+6.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 28	@BRY	L 52-69	-1.5	L −18.5	138.5	U 121
Mar 3	vsUMBC	L 52-91	+4.5	L −34.5	143.5	U 143
Mar 7	vsME	W 60-58	-3.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 118
Mar 10	@UVM	L 54-63	+10.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 117

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FOR

W 72-61

+25.5

FAIR

L 53-74

−14.5

L-MD

W 66-64

+12.5

FDU

W 93-81

+9.5

DREX

L 43-75

−18.5

NAVY

L 70-86

+1.5

CIN

L 67-94

+7.5

LOU

L 47-104

−12.5

EMU

L 55-73

−3.5

HPU

L 72-89

+11.5

NHVN

W 70-64

+8.5

SHU

L 49-65

−9.5

BTLR

L 52-101

−16.5

PENN

L 61-80

−4.5

BING

W 73-65

+11.5

UNH

W 80-76

+6.5

L 70-74

−5.5

UML

W 73-64

+17.5

BRY

W 79-55

+22.5

UMBC

L 74-87

−6.5

UALB

W 77-68

+14.5

UVM

W 79-77

+15.5

UML

W 81-56

+23.5

BING

W 73-64

+0.5

UNH

W 76-70

+8.5

W 67-58

+7.5

UALB

L 63-81

−21.5

UVM

L 64-70

+0.5

BRY

L 52-69

−18.5

UMBC

L 52-91

−34.5

W 60-58

−1.5

UVM

L 54-63

+1.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FOR

W 72-61

−14.5

FAIR

L 53-74

−18.5

L-MD

W 66-64

−9.5

FDU

W 93-81

+27.5

DREX

L 43-75

−20.5

NAVY

L 70-86

+15.5

CIN

L 67-94

+19.5

LOU

L 47-104

−7.5

EMU

L 55-73

−13.5

HPU

L 72-89

+5.5

NHVN

W 70-64

+3.5

SHU

L 49-65

−37.5

BTLR

L 52-101

+3.5

PENN

L 61-80

−10.5

BING

W 73-65

−2.5

UNH

W 80-76

+18.5

L 70-74

+13.5

UML

W 73-64

−8.5

BRY

W 79-55

+1.5

UMBC

L 74-87

+17.5

UALB

W 77-68

+5.5

UVM

W 79-77

+16.5

UML

W 81-56

−12.5

BING

W 73-64

−3.5

UNH

W 76-70

+0.5

W 67-58

−12.5

UALB

L 63-81

+1.5

UVM

L 64-70

−8.5

BRY

L 52-69

−17.5

UMBC

L 52-91

−0.5

W 60-58

−16.5

UVM

L 54-63

−17.5

over 14under 18avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

VCU

36 games played

Straight up

28-8

78% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-20

44% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-878%

W L W L W W L W W L W W W W W L L W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

W L L W W W L W W L L W L L W L L W L W L L L W L W W L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-2044%

O U U U O U O O U O U O O O O U O O U U U O U O U U O U O U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWAG	W 103-74	-25.5	W +3.5	133.5	O 177
Nov 7	vsUSU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 12	vsSPU	W 78-61	-20.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 17	@NCSU	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 22	vsCOPP	W 101-58	-32.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 26	vsUSF	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 144
Nov 27	vsVAN	L 74-89	+6.5	L −8.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsVT	W 86-68	-2.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 154
Dec 5	vsSAM	W 83-57	-19.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 10	vsUNM	L 78-81	-8.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 159
Dec 15	vsNIA	W 84-58	-30.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 18	vsAMER	W 105-83	-19.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	vsRID	W 100-79	-30.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 179
Dec 31	vsSBU	W 89-82	-9.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 3	@DUQ	W 93-80	-5.5	W +7.5	165.5	O 173
Jan 7	vsSLU	L 62-71	-1.5	L −10.5	171.5	U 133
Jan 10	@GMU	L 80-86	-1.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 166
Jan 14	@URI	W 84-75	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 19	vsJOES	W 79-72	-14.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 151
Jan 24	@DAV	W 75-69	-5.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 27	vsRICH	W 77-69	-12.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 146
Jan 30	vsLUC	W 89-75	-18.5	L −4.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 3	@FOR	W 63-59	-7.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 122
Feb 6	vsDAY	W 99-73	-8.5	W +17.5	147.5	O 172
Feb 11	@LAS	W 77-68	-12.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 14	@RICH	W 78-67	-7.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 17	vsGW	W 89-75	-6.5	W +7.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 20	@SLU	L 75-88	+7.5	L −5.5	164.5	U 163
Feb 28	vsFOR	W 82-63	-12.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 145
Mar 3	vsGMU	W 70-65	-9.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 135
Mar 6	@DAY	W 68-62	+1.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsDUQ	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 137
Mar 14	vsJOES	W 77-64	-6.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 141
Mar 15	vsDAY	W 70-62	-3.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsUNC	W 82-78	+2.5	W +6.5	150.5	O 160
Mar 21	vsILL	L 55-76	+12.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+3.5

USU

L 77-80

−0.5

SPU

W 78-61

−3.5

NCSU

L 79-85

+5.5

COPP

W 101-58

+10.5

USF

W 78-66

+10.5

VAN

L 74-89

−8.5

W 86-68

+15.5

SAM

W 83-57

+6.5

UNM

L 78-81

−11.5

NIA

W 84-58

−4.5

AMER

W 105-83

+2.5

RID

W 100-79

−9.5

SBU

W 89-82

−2.5

DUQ

W 93-80

+7.5

SLU

L 62-71

−10.5

GMU

L 80-86

−7.5

URI

W 84-75

+5.5

JOES

W 79-72

−7.5

DAV

W 75-69

+0.5

RICH

W 77-69

−4.5

LUC

W 89-75

−4.5

FOR

W 63-59

−3.5

DAY

W 99-73

+17.5

LAS

W 77-68

−3.5

RICH

W 78-67

+3.5

W 89-75

+7.5

SLU

L 75-88

−5.5

FOR

W 82-63

+6.5

GMU

W 70-65

−4.5

DAY

W 68-62

+7.5

DUQ

W 71-66

−1.5

JOES

W 77-64

+6.5

DAY

W 70-62

+4.5

UNC

W 82-78

+6.5

ILL

L 55-76

−8.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+43.5

USU

L 77-80

−6.5

SPU

W 78-61

−8.5

NCSU

L 79-85

−0.5

COPP

W 101-58

+7.5

USF

W 78-66

−28.5

VAN

L 74-89

+1.5

W 86-68

+0.5

SAM

W 83-57

−14.5

UNM

L 78-81

+1.5

NIA

W 84-58

−1.5

AMER

W 105-83

+33.5

RID

W 100-79

+33.5

SBU

W 89-82

+13.5

DUQ

W 93-80

+7.5

SLU

L 62-71

−38.5

GMU

L 80-86

+21.5

URI

W 84-75

+11.5

JOES

W 79-72

−0.5

DAV

W 75-69

−4.5

RICH

W 77-69

−9.5

LUC

W 89-75

+13.5

FOR

W 63-59

−24.5

DAY

W 99-73

+24.5

LAS

W 77-68

−2.5

RICH

W 78-67

−9.5

W 89-75

+2.5

SLU

L 75-88

−1.5

FOR

W 82-63

+0.5

GMU

W 70-65

−12.5

DAY

W 68-62

−16.5

DUQ

W 71-66

−16.5

JOES

W 77-64

−4.5

DAY

W 70-62

−7.5

UNC

W 82-78

+9.5

ILL

L 55-76

−20.5

over 16under 20avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

VCU has the better starters

Position by position: NJIT 0, VCU 4, even 1

NJITBetterVCU

G D. Bolden12 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.8 ast Score 47

Even

G N. Ralph-Beyer TR14.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 61

G M. Tatum TR8.1 pts · 2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 13

VCUBig

G B. Jennings8.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 79

G Q. Duncan4.4 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 31

VCUBig

G N. Lewis8.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79

F M. Coffi TR3.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 28

VCUBig

F T. Alston TR13.3 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 85

F J. Kelly4.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 20

VCUBig

F L. Djokovic13.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90

NJITBetterVCU

NJIT offense338th of 366 · -11.1

VCUBig

VCU defense50th of 366 · +2.0

NJIT defense250th of 366 · -6.6

VCUBig

VCU offense65th of 366 · +2.0

Backcourt-4.6 · 3 players

VCUBig

Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.4 · 2 players

VCUBig

Frontcourt+5.5 · 2 players

Bench-3.4 · 4 players

VCUBig

Bench+3.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNJIT betterVCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

NJIT

Guards

D. Bolden30 minM. Tatum26 min · TRQ. Duncan14 minR. Awad13 minB. Stores4 min · TRA. AltobelliNew

Forwards

M. Coffi19 min · TRJ. Kelly16 minB. Oliver10 min · TRZ. Scherler7 minV. VanderstraetenNew

Centers

S. Jimenez-VojnicNew

VCU

Guards

N. Ralph-Beyer31 min · TRB. Jennings25 minN. Lewis24 minB. Harper18 min · TRT. Ward14 minA. Nowell11 min

Forwards

T. Alston30 min · TRL. Djokovic28 minM. Belle22 minJ. Wyche7 min · TRC. RossNewS. PlisnicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NJIT66.2 #344

VCU80.8 #50

Points per possession

NJIT0.98 #343

VCU1.16 #47

Pace (possessions)

NJIT67.9 #235

VCU69.5 #147

Shooting

Effective FG%

NJIT46.7 #342

VCU53.6 #78

3-point %

NJIT30.4 #336

VCU36.3 #46

3-point attempt rate

NJIT40.1 #168

VCU43.8 #91

Free throw rate

NJIT33.2 #233

VCU42.0 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

NJIT17.1 #215

VCU15.1 #70

Offensive rebound rate

NJIT26.2 #316

VCU31.6 #139

Assists per game

NJIT10.5 #350

VCU13.9 #158

Defense

Points allowed

NJIT73.7 #147

VCU71.8 #100

Points allowed per possession

NJIT1.08 #167

VCU1.04 #66

Opponent effective FG%

NJIT50.0 #99

VCU49.0 #69

Opponent 3-point %

NJIT32.3 #79

VCU33.0 #125

Turnovers forced

NJIT16.1 #214

VCU17.0 #151

Defensive rebound rate

NJIT67.9 #264

VCU70.0 #162

Steals per game

NJIT6.3 #204

VCU7.3 #99

Blocks per game

NJIT3.1 #197

VCU4.3 #50

NJIT		VCU
Scoring
66.2 #344	Points per game	80.8 #50
0.98 #343	Points per possession	1.16 #47
67.9 #235	Pace (possessions)	69.5 #147
Shooting
46.7 #342	Effective FG%	53.6 #78
30.4 #336	3-point %	36.3 #46
40.1 #168	3-point attempt rate	43.8 #91
33.2 #233	Free throw rate	42.0 #30
Possessions
17.1 #215	Turnover rate	15.1 #70
26.2 #316	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #139
10.5 #350	Assists per game	13.9 #158
Defense
73.7 #147	Points allowed	71.8 #100
1.08 #167	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #66
50.0 #99	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #69
32.3 #79	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #125
16.1 #214	Turnovers forced	17.0 #151
67.9 #264	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #162
6.3 #204	Steals per game	7.3 #99
3.1 #197	Blocks per game	4.3 #50

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NJIT

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-7 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Vermont54–63
Wvs Maine60–58
Lvs UMBC52–91
L@ Bryant52–69
Lvs Vermont64–70

A week or more of rest.

VCU

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois55–76
Wvs North Carolina82–78
Wvs Dayton70–62
Wvs Saint Joseph's77–64
Wvs Duquesne71–66

A week or more of rest.

NJIT Highlanders at VCU Rams

What could decide it: VCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

NJIT

VCU

VCU has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

NJIT

VCU