North Carolina A&T Aggies at East Carolina Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ETWilliams Arena at Minges Coliseum · at East Carolina

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: NC A&T and East Carolina
NCAT	This season	ECU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ECU 80–71 · win probability ECU 80%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ECU has more of the edges

NCAT 2, ECU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ECUBig

ECU offense vs NCAT defense

Offense 142nd of 366 against a defense 311th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NCAT has played the 237th-hardest schedule, ECU the 123rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

ECUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NCAT 18.6%, ECU 17.1%. Forced: NCAT 14.1%, ECU 16.3%

ECUSmall

NCAT offense vs ECU defense

Offense 234th of 366 against a defense 158th, on the model’s ratings

NCATSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NCAT 31.7%, ECU 33.4%. Defensive: NCAT 71.4%, ECU 67.5%

NCATSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NCAT 50.7 and allows 52.9; ECU 46.4 and allows 52.3

ECUSmall

Home court

ECU at home. This season: ECU 0-0 at home, NCAT 0-0 away

ECUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NCAT 42.3, ECU 39.2. Allowed: NCAT 37.5, ECU 32.2

Even

Three-pointers

NCAT hits 31.6% and allows 36.6%; ECU hits 29.3% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 32.6% and 31.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: NCAT plays 69.4 a game (150th fastest), ECU 70.0 (116th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NCAT 16%, ECU 16%. Transfers in: NCAT 2, ECU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ECU -9.8	—
Total	—	150.7	—
Projected score	—	NCAT 70.5 · ECU 80.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ECU -5.7	—
1H total	70.5	—
1H projected score	NCAT 32.4 · ECU 38.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCAT WLWLL	16-12	57%	9-6	—
ECU LLWLW	12-18	40%	6-10	—

Venue/role: NCAT away; ECU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCAT OOOOO	16-12	57%	9-19
ECU UOUOO	16-14	53%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCAT	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
ECU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

NC A&T

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs MORG	W79–73WU
Nov 23	@ SCST	W85–62WU
Nov 28	vs DSU	No recent meeting

East Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs DSU	W79–50WU
Dec 1	vs RICH	L72–87LO
Dec 5	vs RAD	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NCAT 0–2 ECUECU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · ECU has won the last 2 meetings · NCAT 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2024-25	NCAT 69 @ ECU 93	ECU -12.5	ECU W
Dec 7, 2021-22	NCAT 71 @ ECU 82	ECU -10.5	ECU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC A&T

28 games played

Straight up

9-19

32% wins

Against the spread

16-12

57% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-12

57% overs · avg +3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-1932%

L W W L L W L W W L L L L L L W W L L L L W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1257%

W W W L L W L L W W L W W W L W W W W L L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1257%

O U U O U U U O U O O O U O U O O O U U U O U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@SC	L 72-91	+22.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 10	vsSCST	W 85-62	-2.5	W +20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 18	@MORG	W 79-73	-2.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 152
Nov 28	@DAV	L 74-90	+13.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 2	@CLT	L 57-74	+7.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 6	@NCCU	W 69-54	-2.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 123
Dec 9	vsHOW	L 69-73	-2.5	L −6.5	149.5	U 142
Dec 12	vsUMES	W 82-79	-7.5	L −4.5	130.5	O 161
Dec 16	@UNCG	W 71-65	+6.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 29	vsUNCW	L 78-87	+10.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	vsNE	L 74-85	+3.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 159
Jan 3	@STBK	L 80-81	+4.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 8	vsELON	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 133
Jan 15	@W&M	L 89-97	+13.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 186
Jan 19	@HAMP	L 61-82	+6.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 143
Jan 22	vsHOF	W 79-78	+9.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsTOW	W 80-73	+7.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 29	@MONM	L 81-83	+9.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 164
Jan 31	@DREX	L 60-61	+7.5	W +6.5	138.5	U 121
Feb 5	@COFC	L 62-78	+11.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 140
Feb 7	vsCAM	L 71-79	+3.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 13	vsHAMP	W 71-70	+3.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 141
Feb 19	vsCOFC	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 135
Feb 21	@ELON	W 102-82	+7.5	W +27.5	151.5	O 184
Feb 26	@UNCW	L 65-88	+13.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 28	vsW&M	L 88-91	+8.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 179
Mar 3	@CAM	L 72-90	+8.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 162
Mar 6	vsNE	L 72-88	+2.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 72-91

+3.5

SCST

W 85-62

+20.5

MORG

W 79-73

+3.5

DAV

L 74-90

−2.5

CLT

L 57-74

−9.5

NCCU

W 69-54

+12.5

HOW

L 69-73

−6.5

UMES

W 82-79

−4.5

UNCG

W 71-65

+12.5

UNCW

L 78-87

+1.5

L 74-85

−7.5

STBK

L 80-81

+3.5

ELON

L 64-69

+1.5

W&M

L 89-97

+5.5

HAMP

L 61-82

−14.5

HOF

W 79-78

+10.5

TOW

W 80-73

+14.5

MONM

L 81-83

+7.5

DREX

L 60-61

+6.5

COFC

L 62-78

−4.5

CAM

L 71-79

−4.5

HAMP

W 71-70

+4.5

COFC

L 61-74

−8.5

ELON

W 102-82

+27.5

UNCW

L 65-88

−9.5

W&M

L 88-91

+5.5

CAM

L 72-90

−9.5

L 72-88

−13.5

covered 16didn’t cover 12avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 72-91

+19.5

SCST

W 85-62

−12.5

MORG

W 79-73

−9.5

DAV

L 74-90

+18.5

CLT

L 57-74

−13.5

NCCU

W 69-54

−19.5

HOW

L 69-73

−7.5

UMES

W 82-79

+30.5

UNCG

W 71-65

−11.5

UNCW

L 78-87

+18.5

L 74-85

+7.5

STBK

L 80-81

+19.5

ELON

L 64-69

−25.5

W&M

L 89-97

+23.5

HAMP

L 61-82

−0.5

HOF

W 79-78

+10.5

TOW

W 80-73

+13.5

MONM

L 81-83

+19.5

DREX

L 60-61

−17.5

COFC

L 62-78

−15.5

CAM

L 71-79

−6.5

HAMP

W 71-70

+3.5

COFC

L 61-74

−12.5

ELON

W 102-82

+32.5

UNCW

L 65-88

+6.5

W&M

L 88-91

+15.5

CAM

L 72-90

+7.5

L 72-88

+8.5

over 16under 12avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

East Carolina

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

W L L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L L L L L W L L L W W L L L W W L L W L W L W W W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O U U O U U O U U U O O U O U O U U O U O O O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsGASO	W 92-89	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	@RICH	L 72-87	+5.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 18	@UNCW	L 60-85	+6.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsCHSO	L 65-77	-13.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsMSU	L 56-89	+19.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 27	vsSBU	L 58-67	+10.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 125
Dec 2	vsUMES	W 68-56	-12.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsUNCG	L 78-82	-7.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 160
Dec 11	vsAPP	L 54-67	-4.5	L −17.5	130.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsBUF	W 73-70	-1.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 143
Dec 17	vsPRES	W 74-53	-4.5	W +16.5	131.5	U 127
Dec 22	@UNC	L 51-99	+25.5	L −22.5	144.5	O 150
Dec 31	vsTULN	L 70-79	+1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 7	@TEM	L 67-75	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 11	vsUAB	L 85-87	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 14	@USF	L 71-82	+18.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 18	vsCLT	L 70-73	-1.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 21	@WICH	L 60-77	+12.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 23	@UNT	W 63-59	+10.5	W +14.5	134.5	U 122
Jan 28	vsRICE	L 77-83	-2.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 160
Feb 1	@FAU	W 76-75	+10.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 151
Feb 7	vsTEM	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 154
Feb 11	vsUTSA	W 88-72	-10.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 14	@RICE	W 85-75	+4.5	W +14.5	146.5	O 160
Feb 18	vsWICH	L 89-92	+7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 181
Feb 21	@CLT	L 56-68	+4.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 25	@UTSA	W 82-81	-4.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 1	vsMEM	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Mar 5	vsTLSA	L 66-93	+8.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 159
Mar 8	@UAB	L 83-90	+10.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

−2.5

RICH

L 72-87

−9.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−18.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−25.5

MSU

L 56-89

−13.5

SBU

L 58-67

+1.5

UMES

W 68-56

−0.5

UNCG

L 78-82

−11.5

APP

L 54-67

−17.5

BUF

W 73-70

+1.5

PRES

W 74-53

+16.5

UNC

L 51-99

−22.5

TULN

L 70-79

−7.5

TEM

L 67-75

−0.5

UAB

L 85-87

+5.5

USF

L 71-82

+7.5

CLT

L 70-73

−4.5

WICH

L 60-77

−4.5

UNT

W 63-59

+14.5

RICE

L 77-83

−8.5

FAU

W 76-75

+11.5

TEM

L 73-81

−5.5

UTSA

W 88-72

+5.5

RICE

W 85-75

+14.5

WICH

L 89-92

+4.5

CLT

L 56-68

−7.5

UTSA

W 82-81

−3.5

MEM

W 84-68

+20.5

TLSA

L 66-93

−18.5

UAB

L 83-90

+3.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

+29.5

RICH

L 72-87

+15.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−0.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−15.5

MSU

L 56-89

+4.5

SBU

L 58-67

−19.5

UMES

W 68-56

−3.5

UNCG

L 78-82

+20.5

APP

L 54-67

−9.5

BUF

W 73-70

−3.5

PRES

W 74-53

−4.5

UNC

L 51-99

+5.5

TULN

L 70-79

+3.5

TEM

L 67-75

−1.5

UAB

L 85-87

+21.5

USF

L 71-82

−5.5

CLT

L 70-73

+3.5

WICH

L 60-77

−7.5

UNT

W 63-59

−12.5

RICE

L 77-83

+19.5

FAU

W 76-75

−2.5

TEM

L 73-81

+13.5

UTSA

W 88-72

+9.5

RICE

W 85-75

+13.5

WICH

L 89-92

+31.5

CLT

L 56-68

−21.5

UTSA

W 82-81

+9.5

MEM

W 84-68

−0.5

TLSA

L 66-93

+2.5

UAB

L 83-90

+21.5

over 16under 14avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

East Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: NC A&T 1, East Carolina 2, even 2

NC A&TBetterEast Carolina

G P. James TR13.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.1 ast Score 66

NCATSmall

G C. Medley TR10.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 32

G S. Lancaster TR10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 50

ECUSmall

G B. Blaine TR17.7 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82

G M. Burton5.2 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

ECUBig

F K. Watson TR12.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

F M. Webster NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F K. Cooper TR8.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76

C W. Felton6.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 65

No call

F J. Woodard3.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked

NC A&TBetterEast Carolina

NCAT offense234th of 366 · -7.2

ECUSmall

ECU defense158th of 366 · -3.4

NCAT defense311th of 366 · -8.1

ECUBig

ECU offense142nd of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

ECUSmall

Backcourt-0.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.8 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+0.4 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.8 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestNCAT betterECU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

NC A&T

Guards

P. James33 min · TRS. Lancaster29 min · TRM. Burton17 minJ. McKieNewU. Kellman-NicholesNewB. IveryNew

Forwards

M. WebsterNewS. SimleyNew

Centers

W. Felton16 minE. KalliontzisNew

East Carolina

Guards

C. Medley34 min · TRB. Blaine29 min · TRT. Best6 min · TRA. McCulloughNewM. PandovNew

Forwards

K. Watson32 min · TRK. Cooper26 min · TRJ. Woodard17 minJ. BuchananNewD. QuinnNewD. Creasy-QuirindoongoNew

Centers

E. DeLaurier15 minM. KlitschkoNewM. HintonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NCAT73.9 #205

ECU71.5 #259

Points per possession

NCAT1.07 #213

ECU1.02 #305

Pace (possessions)

NCAT69.4 #150

ECU70.0 #116

Shooting

Effective FG%

NCAT50.7 #201

ECU46.4 #346

3-point %

NCAT31.6 #304

ECU29.3 #350

3-point attempt rate

NCAT32.6 #322

ECU31.1 #337

Free throw rate

NCAT42.3 #26

ECU39.2 #75

Possessions

Turnover rate

NCAT18.6 #304

ECU17.1 #208

Offensive rebound rate

NCAT31.7 #136

ECU33.4 #79

Assists per game

NCAT11.5 #311

ECU11.8 #301

Defense

Points allowed

NCAT78.5 #278

ECU77.7 #262

Points allowed per possession

NCAT1.13 #285

ECU1.11 #246

Opponent effective FG%

NCAT52.9 #266

ECU52.3 #229

Opponent 3-point %

NCAT36.6 #331

ECU34.9 #245

Turnovers forced

NCAT14.1 #332

ECU16.3 #205

Defensive rebound rate

NCAT71.4 #89

ECU67.5 #282

Steals per game

NCAT5.1 #323

ECU6.5 #177

Blocks per game

NCAT3.8 #107

ECU4.0 #74

NCAT		ECU
Scoring
73.9 #205	Points per game	71.5 #259
1.07 #213	Points per possession	1.02 #305
69.4 #150	Pace (possessions)	70.0 #116
Shooting
50.7 #201	Effective FG%	46.4 #346
31.6 #304	3-point %	29.3 #350
32.6 #322	3-point attempt rate	31.1 #337
42.3 #26	Free throw rate	39.2 #75
Possessions
18.6 #304	Turnover rate	17.1 #208
31.7 #136	Offensive rebound rate	33.4 #79
11.5 #311	Assists per game	11.8 #301
Defense
78.5 #278	Points allowed	77.7 #262
1.13 #285	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #246
52.9 #266	Opponent effective FG%	52.3 #229
36.6 #331	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #245
14.1 #332	Turnovers forced	16.3 #205
71.4 #89	Defensive rebound rate	67.5 #282
5.1 #323	Steals per game	6.5 #177
3.8 #107	Blocks per game	4.0 #74

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC A&T

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northeastern72–88
L@ Campbell72–90
Lvs William & Mary88–91
L@ UNC Wilmington65–88
W@ Elon102–82

A week or more of rest.

East Carolina

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UAB83–90
Lvs Tulsa66–93
Wvs Memphis84–68
W@ UTSA82–81
L@ Charlotte56–68

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina A&T Aggies at East Carolina Pirates

What could decide it: ECU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

NC A&T

East Carolina

East Carolina has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

NC A&T

East Carolina