1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. W&M @ FAU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

William & Mary Tribe at Florida Atlantic Owls

Abessinio Court at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena · at FAU
#217W&MWilliam & Mary
@
#109FAUFAU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
W&MThis seasonFAU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAU 85–74 · win probability FAU 83%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FAU has more of the edges

W&M 2, FAU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FAUBig
FAU offense vs W&M defense
Offense 85th of 366 against a defense 289th, on the model’s ratings
FAUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: W&M 26.0%, FAU 31.6%. Defensive: W&M 68.5%, FAU 71.7%
W&MBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: W&M 16.6%, FAU 17.6%. Forced: W&M 18.9%, FAU 15.5%
W&MBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: W&M 44.0, FAU 33.3. Allowed: W&M 35.5, FAU 36.2
Context
Schedule so far
W&M has played the 171st-hardest schedule, FAU the 101st. A record against a soft schedule means less
FAUSmall
Home court
FAU at home. This season: FAU 0-0 at home, W&M 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: W&M 1%, FAU 17%. Transfers in: W&M 7, FAU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: W&M plays 73.6 a game (14th fastest), FAU 71.1 (71st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: W&M 54.3 and allows 51.9; FAU 52.2 and allows 49.5
Even
W&M offense vs FAU defense
Offense 160th of 366 against a defense 174th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
W&M hits 33.0% and allows 33.0%; FAU hits 33.3% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 42.8% and 38.2% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FAU -10.8—
Total—158.9—
Projected score—W&M 74 · FAU 84.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAU -6.3—
1H total74.2—
1H projected scoreW&M 33.9 · FAU 40.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

FAU has the better starters

Position by position: William & Mary 0, FAU 4, even 1
William & MaryBetterFAU
G J. Baldwin TR7.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.2 ast Score 63
FAUSmall
G B. Speed TR15.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 82
G J. McIntosh TR6.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
FAUBig
G J. Hamilton TR17.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
G T. Blassingame TR3.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18
FAUBig
G K. Carlyle14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.8 ast Score 73
G N. Daniels TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Charles TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 32
F S. Sivka TR2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 15
FAUSmall
F M. Porter-Brown TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42
William & MaryBetterFAU
W&M offense160th of 366 · -4.8
Even
FAU defense174th of 366 · -3.9
W&M defense289th of 366 · -7.2
FAUBig
FAU offense85th of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players
FAUBig
Backcourt+4.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
Bench-0.4 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestW&M betterFAU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
William & Mary
Guards
J. Baldwin20 min · TRJ. McIntosh17 min · TRT. Blassingame17 min · TRN. Daniels10 min · TRZ. Clark9 min · TRJ. Forsythe4 min · TR
Forwards
S. Sivka11 min · TRB. CarterNewJ. RolandNew
FAU
Guards
B. Speed34 min · TRJ. Hamilton32 min · TRK. Carlyle31 minM. Charles30 min · TRL. Dayco-Green2 minL. Smith1 min
Forwards
M. Porter-Brown20 min · TRJ. HarrisNewM. PuodziukaitisNewD. MusisNew
Centers
K. Mullen6 min · TRT. IfaolaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
W&MFAU
Scoring
81.5 #38Points per game77.2 #111
1.11 #116Points per possession1.09 #170
73.6 #14Pace (possessions)71.1 #71
Shooting
54.3 #58Effective FG%52.2 #135
33.0 #2333-point %33.3 #210
42.8 #1203-point attempt rate38.2 #208
44.0 #9Free throw rate33.3 #231
Possessions
16.6 #171Turnover rate17.6 #246
26.0 #324Offensive rebound rate31.6 #140
17.4 #17Assists per game13.0 #210
Defense
78.9 #294Points allowed75.3 #198
1.07 #126Points allowed per possession1.06 #108
51.9 #205Opponent effective FG%49.5 #81
33.0 #126Opponent 3-point %33.8 #169
18.9 #52Turnovers forced15.5 #252
68.5 #229Defensive rebound rate71.7 #78
7.9 #47Steals per game5.7 #272
3.8 #95Blocks per game5.3 #11
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

William & Mary

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Hofstra61–92
  • Wvs Elon72–62
  • Wvs Hampton94–85
  • W@ NC A&T91–88
  • Wvs Northeastern84–77

A week or more of rest.

FAU

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Texas70–74
  • Wvs Temple63–59
  • L@ Wichita St70–88
  • Wvs Charlotte77–76
  • Wvs Temple77–73

A week or more of rest.