1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. USA @ UCF
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

South Alabama Jaguars at UCF Knights

Addition Financial Arena · at UCF
#227USASouth Alabama
@
#39UCFUCF
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USAThis seasonUCF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCF 90–67 · win probability UCF 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCF has more of the edges

USA 3, UCF 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCFBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USA 25.0%, UCF 35.0%. Defensive: USA 68.6%, UCF 71.2%
UCFBig
UCF offense vs USA defense
Offense 18th of 366 against a defense 212th, on the model’s ratings
USABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: USA 38.5, UCF 30.5. Allowed: USA 25.4, UCF 34.9
Context
Schedule so far
USA has played the 223rd-hardest schedule, UCF the 41st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCFBig
USA offense vs UCF defense
Offense 242nd of 366 against a defense 93rd, on the model’s ratings
USABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USA 13.1%, UCF 16.0%. Forced: USA 18.0%, UCF 15.7%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: USA plays 67.1 a game (277th fastest), UCF 71.2 (63rd). Faster games mean more points
USASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: USA 52.6 and allows 50.1; UCF 52.6 and allows 52.1
UCFSmall
Home court
UCF at home. This season: UCF 0-0 at home, USA 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
USA hits 34.5% and allows 33.1%; UCF hits 36.2% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 36.5% and 34.8% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USA 21%, UCF 20%. Transfers in: USA 0, UCF 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCF -23.1—
Total—157.2—
Projected score—USA 67.1 · UCF 90.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCF -13.6—
1H total73.5—
1H projected scoreUSA 29.9 · UCF 43.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: South Alabama 0, UCF 0, even 5
South AlabamaBetterUCF
G A. Goldstein NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G C. Vasko TR11 pts · 4.7 reb · 4.1 ast Score 52
G A. Lewis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G D. Johnson TR23.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 100
G J. Langsy NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F L. Walker TR18.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
F P. Law13.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
Even
F I. Malone TR10.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 82
F S. Williams6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 84
Even
F C. Abass TR8.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70
South AlabamaBetterUCF
USA offense242nd of 366 · -7.3
UCFBig
UCF defense93rd of 366 · -0.4
USA defense212th of 366 · -5.4
UCFBig
UCF offense18th of 366 · +8.0
BackcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Backcourt+7.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt+3.5 · 2 players
UCFSmall
Frontcourt+5.3 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUSA betterUCF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Alabama
Guards
A. GoldsteinNewA. LewisNewJ. LangsyNewS. ShoptawNewD. WilliamsNewD. RomanNew
Forwards
P. Law26 minS. Williams15 minL. KunzewitschNewO. KenneyNewR. WilliamsNewD. HueittNew
UCF
Guards
C. Vasko33 min · TRD. Johnson26 min · TRM. Dean17 min · TRC. Pacheco16 minA. DeanNewT. JonesNew
Forwards
L. Walker34 min · TRI. Malone23 min · TRC. Abass20 min · TRJ. Asemota8 min · TRL. GivanNewD. MannNew
Centers
J. Bol19 minE. Hulsewe5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USAUCF
Scoring
73.2 #218Points per game80.7 #53
1.10 #139Points per possession1.13 #77
67.1 #277Pace (possessions)71.2 #63
Shooting
52.6 #120Effective FG%52.6 #123
34.5 #1463-point %36.2 #49
36.5 #2373-point attempt rate34.8 #281
38.5 #89Free throw rate30.5 #295
Possessions
13.1 #8Turnover rate16.0 #137
25.0 #341Offensive rebound rate35.0 #47
11.9 #287Assists per game15.7 #56
Defense
71.3 #85Points allowed78.3 #274
1.06 #100Points allowed per possession1.10 #219
50.1 #105Opponent effective FG%52.1 #221
33.1 #133Opponent 3-point %33.9 #176
18.0 #96Turnovers forced15.7 #241
68.6 #222Defensive rebound rate71.2 #96
7.9 #46Steals per game5.6 #285
2.2 #330Blocks per game3.0 #225
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Alabama

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Auburn67–78
  • Lvs GA Southern85–94
  • Lvs Southern Miss55–68
  • Wvs UL Monroe89–54
  • Wvs Troy65–54

A week or more of rest.

UCF

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCLA71–75
  • Lvs Arizona59–81
  • Wvs Cincinnati66–65
  • L@ West Virginia62–77
  • Lvs Oklahoma St104–111

A week or more of rest.