1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. MER @ GASO
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Mercer Bears at Georgia Southern Eagles

Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center · at GA Southern
#242MERMercer
@
#296GASOGA Southern
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MERThis seasonGASO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MER 78–77 · win probability MER 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MER has more of the edges

MER 3, GASO 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MERBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MER 39.2, GASO 39.6. Allowed: MER 29.7, GASO 41.4
MERBig
MER offense vs GASO defense
Offense 223rd of 366 against a defense 347th, on the model’s ratings
MERSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MER 32.6%, GASO 28.8%. Defensive: MER 66.8%, GASO 64.8%
Context
Schedule so far
MER has played the 193rd-hardest schedule, GASO the 279th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GASOSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MER 15.0%, GASO 14.7%. Forced: MER 17.0%, GASO 18.7%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: MER plays 69.5 a game (148th fastest), GASO 71.8 (42nd). Faster games mean more points
GASOSmall
Home court
GASO at home. This season: GASO 0-0 at home, MER 0-0 away
Even
GASO offense vs MER defense
Offense 233rd of 366 against a defense 268th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MER 53.1 and allows 52.5; GASO 51.4 and allows 52.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MER 28%, GASO 16%. Transfers in: MER 2, GASO 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
MER hits 35.6% and allows 36.2%; GASO hits 33.4% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 39.2% and 48.9% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MER -0.8—
Total—155.0—
Projected score—MER 77.9 · GASO 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMER -0.6—
1H total72.5—
1H projected scoreMER 36.5 · GASO 35.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Mercer 0, GA Southern 0, even 5
MercerBetterGA Southern
G B. Shoulders9.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
Even
G J. Dixon TR9 pts · 1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 39
G Q. Perkins8.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 22
Even
G D. Williams3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 10
F K. Steele TR8 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 62
No call
G J. Williams1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
F M. Mabor Makoi TR1.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 10
Even
F T. Claytor TR6.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8
F P. Padegimas NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F T. Sotirov2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
MercerBetterGA Southern
MER offense223rd of 366 · -6.8
MERSmall
GASO defense347th of 366 · -9.4
MER defense268th of 366 · -6.8
Even
GASO offense233rd of 366 · -7.2
Backcourt-3.4 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
MERBig
Frontcourt-3.7 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.8 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestMER betterGASO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mercer
Guards
B. Shoulders32 minQ. Perkins24 minM. KoveosNewD. BarrNewH. LyttleNewK. LamonteNew
Forwards
K. Steele21 min · TRM. Mabor Makoi8 min · TRP. PadegimasNewS. MayhughNewD. KovacevicNew
GA Southern
Guards
J. Dixon19 min · TRD. Williams12 minJ. Williams8 minD. GardnerNewA. HendersonNewR. WilliamsNew
Forwards
T. Claytor17 min · TRT. Sotirov11 minE. Smith6 min · TRC. CrissmanNewE. SavaneNewE. JamesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MERGASO
Scoring
80.1 #65Points per game79.9 #69
1.15 #55Points per possession1.12 #109
69.5 #148Pace (possessions)71.8 #42
Shooting
53.1 #98Effective FG%51.4 #176
35.6 #873-point %33.4 #207
39.2 #1883-point attempt rate48.9 #20
39.2 #74Free throw rate39.6 #62
Possessions
15.0 #67Turnover rate14.7 #49
32.6 #102Offensive rebound rate28.8 #238
12.7 #240Assists per game10.7 #344
Defense
77.8 #263Points allowed80.3 #325
1.12 #273Points allowed per possession1.11 #259
52.5 #242Opponent effective FG%52.3 #230
36.2 #311Opponent 3-point %34.4 #208
17.0 #155Turnovers forced18.7 #65
66.8 #303Defensive rebound rate64.8 #342
7.1 #115Steals per game8.1 #36
3.2 #186Blocks per game3.6 #128
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercer

16-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs W Carolina73–77
  • Wvs ETSU82–76
  • L@ W Carolina74–78
  • Wvs Samford89–86
  • Lvs Chattanooga90–94

A week or more of rest.

GA Southern

19-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Troy61–77
  • Wvs Marshall82–78
  • Wvs Coastal96–72
  • Wvs South Alabama94–85
  • Wvs Arkansas St80–77

A week or more of rest.