1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. MORG @ NIA
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Morgan State Bears at Niagara Purple Eagles

Gallagher Center · at Niagara
#345MORGMorgan St
@
#346NIANiagara
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MORGThis seasonNIA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NIA 75–71 · win probability NIA 65%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MORG has more of the edges

MORG 3, NIA 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: MORG plays 71.1 a game (73rd fastest), NIA 63.4 (364th). Faster games mean more points
MORGSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MORG 30.7%, NIA 24.8%. Defensive: MORG 64.8%, NIA 67.1%
MORGSmall
Three-pointers
MORG hits 31.7% and allows 31.5%; NIA hits 33.7% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 35.2% and 40.5% of their shots
MORGSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MORG 42.7, NIA 26.6. Allowed: MORG 50.9, NIA 33.8
NIASmall
Home court
NIA at home. This season: NIA 0-0 at home, MORG 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MORG 36%, NIA 15%. Transfers in: MORG 3, NIA 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MORG 45.8 and allows 51.7; NIA 50.5 and allows 52.8
Context
Schedule so far
MORG has played the 360th-hardest schedule, NIA the 334th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MORG 17.8%, NIA 18.9%. Forced: MORG 16.5%, NIA 16.6%
Even
MORG offense vs NIA defense
Offense 293rd of 366 against a defense 278th, on the model’s ratings
Even
NIA offense vs MORG defense
Offense 355th of 366 against a defense 360th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NIA -4.5—
Total—145.6—
Projected score—MORG 70.6 · NIA 75

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNIA -2.5—
1H total68.1—
1H projected scoreMORG 32.8 · NIA 35.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Morgan St has the better starters

Position by position: Morgan St 1, Niagara 0, even 4
Morgan StBetterNiagara
G A. Worrell16.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 70
MORGBig
G T. Walters7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 27
G J. Awoke TR6.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 12
Even
G C. Farrell TR6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 11
G D. Bumpass2.7 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Woods TR4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 15
F K. Horton TR7.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19
Even
G B. Rieber TR3.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 7
F T. Edwards3.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Blackshear TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 43
Morgan StBetterNiagara
MORG offense293rd of 366 · -9.1
Even
NIA defense278th of 366 · -7.0
MORG defense360th of 366 · -11.0
Even
NIA offense355th of 366 · -13.3
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
MORGBig
Backcourt-8.7 · 5 players
Frontcourt-2.7 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.4 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.5 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMORG betterNIA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Morgan St
Guards
A. Worrell30 minJ. Awoke25 min · TRD. Bumpass9 minB. Barnett2 minJ. KwartengNewK. RichardNew
Forwards
K. Horton20 min · TRT. Edwards17 minM. Wade8 minM. Lual7 minI. Traore6 min · TRT. PettigrewNew
Niagara
Guards
T. Walters22 minC. Farrell21 min · TRL. Woods18 min · TRB. Rieber16 min · TRT. Blackshear14 min · TRG. Dalmau7 min
Forwards
V. Todorovic10 min · TRN. SlingerlandNewF. RottaNewB. AngelettiNewD. EmokhareNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MORGNIA
Scoring
71.7 #252Points per game63.3 #355
1.01 #316Points per possession1.00 #330
71.1 #73Pace (possessions)63.4 #364
Shooting
45.8 #351Effective FG%50.5 #214
31.7 #2953-point %33.7 #188
35.2 #2743-point attempt rate40.5 #159
42.7 #22Free throw rate26.6 #353
Possessions
17.8 #262Turnover rate18.9 #318
30.7 #172Offensive rebound rate24.8 #344
12.2 #269Assists per game13.8 #162
Defense
80.1 #321Points allowed71.7 #98
1.13 #288Points allowed per possession1.13 #300
51.7 #194Opponent effective FG%52.8 #260
31.5 #43Opponent 3-point %35.3 #268
16.5 #186Turnovers forced16.6 #177
64.8 #341Defensive rebound rate67.1 #297
4.3 #359Steals per game5.6 #284
3.3 #172Blocks per game2.8 #254
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Morgan St

11-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Delaware St70–75
  • Wvs Coppin St70–66
  • Wvs Norfolk St90–84
  • Lvs Howard59–84
  • W@ SC State90–83

A week or more of rest.

Niagara

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack66–73
  • Wvs Quinnipiac78–76
  • L@ Rider62–67
  • L@ Mount St Marys63–76
  • Wvs Iona70–68

A week or more of rest.