Morgan State Bears at Towson Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 AM ETSECU Arena · at Towson

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Morgan St and Towson
MORG	This season	TOW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOW 80–65 · win probability TOW 91%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOW has more of the edges

MORG 0, TOW 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

MORG has played the 360th-hardest schedule, TOW the 140th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TOWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MORG 30.7%, TOW 36.0%. Defensive: MORG 64.8%, TOW 70.9%

TOWBig

MORG offense vs TOW defense

Offense 293rd of 366 against a defense 113th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: MORG plays 71.1 a game (73rd fastest), TOW 64.0 (360th). Faster games mean more points

TOWSmall

TOW offense vs MORG defense

Offense 266th of 366 against a defense 360th, on the model’s ratings

TOWSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MORG 45.8 and allows 51.7; TOW 46.5 and allows 48.5

TOWSmall

Home court

TOW at home. This season: TOW 0-0 at home, MORG 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MORG 17.8%, TOW 15.8%. Forced: MORG 16.5%, TOW 15.1%

Even

Three-pointers

MORG hits 31.7% and allows 31.5%; TOW hits 29.4% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 35.2% and 34.9% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MORG 42.7, TOW 30.4. Allowed: MORG 50.9, TOW 29.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MORG 36%, TOW 27%. Transfers in: MORG 3, TOW 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TOW -15.3	—
Total	—	145.1	—
Projected score	—	MORG 64.9 · TOW 80.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TOW -9.0	—
1H total	67.9	—
1H projected score	MORG 29.4 · TOW 38.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MORG WLWLL	15-12	56%	7-7	—
TOW LWLWW	15-17	47%	5-7	—

Venue/role: MORG away; TOW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MORG OUOUO	16-11	59%	11-16
TOW UUOUO	12-20	38%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MORG	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
TOW	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Morgan St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ NCAT	L73–79LU
Nov 21	vs COR	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs MSM	L60–74LO

Towson

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs JMU	L75–81LO
Nov 22	@ AMER	No recent meeting
Nov 27	@ PENN	W80–74WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MORG 0–2 TOWTOW leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · TOW has won the last 2 meetings · MORG 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 24, 2024-25	TOW 64 @ MORG 60	MORG +10.5	MORG W
Nov 26, 2023-24	MORG 58 @ TOW 67	TOW -12.5	MORG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Morgan St

27 games played

Straight up

11-16

41% wins

Against the spread

15-12

56% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-11

59% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1641%

L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W W W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1256%

W W L L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W W W W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1159%

O U O U U U O U O U O U U U O O O O O O O O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GTWN	L 70-87	+27.5	W +10.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 11	vsUMBC	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 15	@MERC	L 72-86	+6.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsNCAT	L 73-79	+2.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 152
Nov 21	@ODU	L 56-88	+11.5	L −20.5	156.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsDREX	L 66-71	+5.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsLONG	L 80-84	+5.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 164
Dec 9	@DEP	L 49-92	+21.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 141
Dec 13	vsNIA	W 81-73	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 19	@CAL	L 50-97	+26.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 21	@SF	L 64-94	+25.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 23	@LMU	L 56-83	+23.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 139
Jan 3	@UMES	L 49-66	+6.5	L −10.5	138.5	U 115
Jan 10	vsSCST	W 72-67	-4.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	vsNCCU	L 78-89	+3.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 167
Jan 17	@DSU	W 80-79	+3.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 159
Jan 24	@HOW	W 78-77	+14.5	W +15.5	148.5	O 155
Jan 26	@NORF	W 79-78	+7.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 157
Jan 31	@COPP	W 89-80	-3.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 169
Feb 7	vsUMES	W 79-71	+1.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 16	@NCCU	L 76-80	+5.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 21	vsDSU	W 82-68	-5.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 25	@SCST	W 90-83	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	vsHOW	L 59-84	+8.5	L −16.5	158.5	U 143
Mar 2	vsNORF	W 90-84	+3.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 174
Mar 5	vsCOPP	W 70-66	-5.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 136
Mar 11	vsDSU	L 70-75	-3.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GTWN

L 70-87

+10.5

UMBC

L 79-81

+2.5

MERC

L 72-86

−7.5

NCAT

L 73-79

−3.5

ODU

L 56-88

−20.5

DREX

L 66-71

+0.5

LONG

L 80-84

+1.5

DEP

L 49-92

−21.5

NIA

W 81-73

+6.5

CAL

L 50-97

−20.5

L 64-94

−4.5

LMU

L 56-83

−3.5

UMES

L 49-66

−10.5

SCST

W 72-67

+0.5

NCCU

L 78-89

−7.5

DSU

W 80-79

+4.5

HOW

W 78-77

+15.5

NORF

W 79-78

+8.5

COPP

W 89-80

+5.5

UMES

W 79-71

+9.5

NCCU

L 76-80

+1.5

DSU

W 82-68

+8.5

SCST

W 90-83

+5.5

HOW

L 59-84

−16.5

NORF

W 90-84

+9.5

COPP

W 70-66

−1.5

DSU

L 70-75

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 12avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GTWN

L 70-87

+2.5

UMBC

L 79-81

−2.5

MERC

L 72-86

+11.5

NCAT

L 73-79

−9.5

ODU

L 56-88

−12.5

DREX

L 66-71

−6.5

LONG

L 80-84

+9.5

DEP

L 49-92

−9.5

NIA

W 81-73

+13.5

CAL

L 50-97

−4.5

L 64-94

+12.5

LMU

L 56-83

−5.5

UMES

L 49-66

−23.5

SCST

W 72-67

−8.5

NCCU

L 78-89

+25.5

DSU

W 80-79

+22.5

HOW

W 78-77

+6.5

NORF

W 79-78

+4.5

COPP

W 89-80

+13.5

UMES

W 79-71

+9.5

NCCU

L 76-80

+9.5

DSU

W 82-68

+6.5

SCST

W 90-83

+19.5

HOW

L 59-84

−15.5

NORF

W 90-84

+17.5

COPP

W 70-66

−13.5

DSU

L 70-75

+2.5

over 16under 11avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Towson

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −5.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W L W L W W L W L L W L L L L W W W W L L W L W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W W L L W W L W L L W L L L L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2038%

U U U O U O O O U U U U U U O O U U U O O O U U O U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsL-MD	W 67-56	-8.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 8	@HOU	L 48-65	+26.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 14	vsNORF	W 51-41	-13.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 18	@JMU	L 75-81	-3.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsURI	W 62-55	+2.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 25	vsLIB	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsUCSD	L 73-87	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 3	vsCOR	W 93-80	-6.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 173
Dec 7	@UCF	L 61-86	+9.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 147
Dec 16	@KU	L 49-73	+14.5	L −9.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 22	vsSHU	W 72-47	-13.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 29	@W&M	L 70-84	+1.5	L −12.5	157.5	U 154
Dec 31	@HAMP	L 62-63	-6.5	L −7.5	136.5	U 125
Jan 3	vsMONM	L 48-62	-8.5	L −22.5	136.5	U 110
Jan 8	vsHOF	L 67-78	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 145
Jan 10	@NE	W 87-78	-2.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 15	vsCOFC	W 61-52	-3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 19	vsDREX	W 59-58	-7.5	L −6.5	124.5	U 117
Jan 22	@ELON	W 72-59	+1.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 131
Jan 24	@NCAT	L 73-80	-7.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 29	vsUNCW	L 73-82	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsHAMP	W 82-50	-8.5	W +23.5	131.5	O 132
Feb 7	@HOF	L 49-71	+4.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsSTBK	W 69-57	-7.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 126
Feb 15	@MONM	L 71-72	+1.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 143
Feb 22	@DREX	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	130.5	U 130
Feb 26	vsELON	W 58-56	-5.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsCAM	W 71-67	-4.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 138
Mar 3	@STBK	W 69-57	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsHAMP	W 74-68	-7.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 142
Mar 8	vsCOFC	W 81-56	+3.5	W +28.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 9	vsHOF	L 65-68	+4.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

+2.5

HOU

L 48-65

+9.5

NORF

W 51-41

−3.5

JMU

L 75-81

−9.5

URI

W 62-55

+9.5

LIB

W 72-69

+9.5

UCSD

L 73-87

−12.5

COR

W 93-80

+6.5

UCF

L 61-86

−15.5

L 49-73

−9.5

SHU

W 72-47

+11.5

W&M

L 70-84

−12.5

HAMP

L 62-63

−7.5

MONM

L 48-62

−22.5

HOF

L 67-78

−12.5

W 87-78

+6.5

COFC

W 61-52

+5.5

DREX

W 59-58

−6.5

ELON

W 72-59

+14.5

NCAT

L 73-80

−14.5

UNCW

L 73-82

−10.5

HAMP

W 82-50

+23.5

HOF

L 49-71

−17.5

STBK

W 69-57

+4.5

MONM

L 71-72

+0.5

DREX

L 62-68

−8.5

ELON

W 58-56

−3.5

CAM

W 71-67

−0.5

STBK

W 69-57

+10.5

HAMP

W 74-68

−1.5

COFC

W 81-56

+28.5

HOF

L 65-68

+1.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

−18.5

HOU

L 48-65

−17.5

NORF

W 51-41

−46.5

JMU

L 75-81

+15.5

URI

W 62-55

−23.5

LIB

W 72-69

+3.5

UCSD

L 73-87

+21.5

COR

W 93-80

+18.5

UCF

L 61-86

−1.5

L 49-73

−15.5

SHU

W 72-47

−26.5

W&M

L 70-84

−3.5

HAMP

L 62-63

−11.5

MONM

L 48-62

−26.5

HOF

L 67-78

+10.5

W 87-78

+21.5

COFC

W 61-52

−30.5

DREX

W 59-58

−7.5

ELON

W 72-59

−14.5

NCAT

L 73-80

+13.5

UNCW

L 73-82

+19.5

HAMP

W 82-50

+0.5

HOF

L 49-71

−17.5

STBK

W 69-57

−9.5

MONM

L 71-72

+4.5

DREX

L 62-68

−0.5

ELON

W 58-56

−30.5

CAM

W 71-67

−4.5

STBK

W 69-57

−11.5

HAMP

W 74-68

+9.5

COFC

W 81-56

−1.5

HOF

L 65-68

+0.5

over 12under 20avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Towson has the better starters

Position by position: Morgan St 1, Towson 2, even 2

Morgan StBetterTowson

G A. Worrell16.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 70

MORGSmall

G B. Roseborough TR11.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50

G J. Awoke TR6.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 12

TOWBig

G J. Womack6.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 61

G D. Bumpass2.7 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Ndefo2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32

F K. Horton TR7.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

TOWSmall

F C. Embeya3.5 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37

F T. Edwards3.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Badalau TR3.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

Morgan StBetterTowson

MORG offense293rd of 366 · -9.1

TOWBig

TOW defense113th of 366 · -1.4

MORG defense360th of 366 · -11.0

TOWSmall

TOW offense266th of 366 · -8.1

Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players

TOWSmall

Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.7 · 2 players

TOWSmall

Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

TOWSmall

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestMORG betterTOW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Morgan St

Guards

A. Worrell30 minJ. Awoke25 min · TRD. Bumpass9 minB. Barnett2 minJ. KwartengNewK. RichardNew

Forwards

K. Horton20 min · TRT. Edwards17 minM. Wade8 minM. Lual7 minI. Traore6 min · TRT. PettigrewNew

Towson

Guards

B. Roseborough28 min · TRJ. Womack19 minC. Ndefo12 minZ. Stanford5 min · TRR. Skerry2 minC. DoerrNew

Forwards

C. Embeya21 minD. Badalau13 min · TRA. AtkinsonNewB. HolmesNewD. KirkNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MORG71.7 #252

TOW67.1 #332

Points per possession

MORG1.01 #316

TOW1.05 #256

Pace (possessions)

MORG71.1 #73

TOW64.0 #360

Shooting

Effective FG%

MORG45.8 #351

TOW46.5 #345

3-point %

MORG31.7 #295

TOW29.4 #349

3-point attempt rate

MORG35.2 #274

TOW34.9 #277

Free throw rate

MORG42.7 #22

TOW30.4 #299

Possessions

Turnover rate

MORG17.8 #262

TOW15.8 #128

Offensive rebound rate

MORG30.7 #172

TOW36.0 #24

Assists per game

MORG12.2 #269

TOW9.5 #364

Defense

Points allowed

MORG80.1 #321

TOW66.4 #18

Points allowed per possession

MORG1.13 #288

TOW1.04 #73

Opponent effective FG%

MORG51.7 #194

TOW48.5 #49

Opponent 3-point %

MORG31.5 #43

TOW30.9 #33

Turnovers forced

MORG16.5 #186

TOW15.1 #271

Defensive rebound rate

MORG64.8 #341

TOW70.9 #117

Steals per game

MORG4.3 #359

TOW5.8 #253

Blocks per game

MORG3.3 #172

TOW3.3 #175

MORG		TOW
Scoring
71.7 #252	Points per game	67.1 #332
1.01 #316	Points per possession	1.05 #256
71.1 #73	Pace (possessions)	64.0 #360
Shooting
45.8 #351	Effective FG%	46.5 #345
31.7 #295	3-point %	29.4 #349
35.2 #274	3-point attempt rate	34.9 #277
42.7 #22	Free throw rate	30.4 #299
Possessions
17.8 #262	Turnover rate	15.8 #128
30.7 #172	Offensive rebound rate	36.0 #24
12.2 #269	Assists per game	9.5 #364
Defense
80.1 #321	Points allowed	66.4 #18
1.13 #288	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #73
51.7 #194	Opponent effective FG%	48.5 #49
31.5 #43	Opponent 3-point %	30.9 #33
16.5 #186	Turnovers forced	15.1 #271
64.8 #341	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #117
4.3 #359	Steals per game	5.8 #253
3.3 #172	Blocks per game	3.3 #175

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Morgan St

11-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Delaware St70–75
Wvs Coppin St70–66
Wvs Norfolk St90–84
Lvs Howard59–84
W@ SC State90–83

A week or more of rest.

Towson

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Hofstra65–68
Wvs Charleston81–56
Wvs Hampton74–68
W@ Stony Brook69–57
Wvs Campbell71–67

A week or more of rest.

Morgan State Bears at Towson Tigers

What could decide it: TOW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Morgan St

Towson

Towson has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Morgan St

Towson