Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Nicholls Colonels: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 AM ETDavid R. Stopher Gymnasium · at Nicholls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Louisiana Tech and Nicholls
LT	This season	NICH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NICH 72–70 · win probability NICH 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

LT 3, NICH 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LT 36.4%, NICH 28.1%. Defensive: LT 68.4%, NICH 66.3%

LTSmall

NICH offense vs LT defense

Offense 283rd of 366 against a defense 184th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LT has played the 197th-hardest schedule, NICH the 277th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NICHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LT 18.2%, NICH 17.4%. Forced: LT 17.9%, NICH 20.5%

LTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LT 47.4 and allows 48.7; NICH 50.6 and allows 54.4

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: LT plays 65.5 a game (332nd fastest), NICH 68.3 (210th). Faster games mean more points

NICHSmall

Home court

NICH at home. This season: NICH 0-0 at home, LT 0-0 away

NICHSmall

Three-pointers

LT hits 28.6% and allows 33.9%; NICH hits 33.3% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 33.4% and 43.9% of their shots

Even

LT offense vs NICH defense

Offense 302nd of 366 against a defense 282nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LT 11%, NICH 20%. Transfers in: LT 0, NICH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LT 33.1, NICH 34.5. Allowed: LT 36.3, NICH 37.9

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NICH -1.9	—
Total	—	142.4	—
Projected score	—	LT 70.3 · NICH 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NICH -1.0	—
1H total	66.7	—
1H projected score	LT 32.8 · NICH 33.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT WWWWL	17-14	55%	7-7	—
NICH WWLWL	15-17	47%	4-7	—

Venue/role: LT away; NICH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT OUOOU	16-15	52%	17-14
NICH UUUUO	17-15	53%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NICH	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Louisiana Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs JXST	W77–71WO
Nov 19	vs TULN	L53–61LU
Nov 24	vs ALCN	W83–58WO

Nicholls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ MISS	No recent meeting
Nov 21	vs USM	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs TROY	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LT 1–0 NICHLT leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LT 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 2, 2023-24	NICH 55 @ LT 68	LT -14.5	NICH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana Tech

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W W L W W L L W W L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

L W L L W L W L W L W L L W W W W L L W W L W W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

U U U O O O U U O O U U O U U O U O U O O U O U O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@NEV	L 50-77	+9.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 15	vsJKST	W 68-51	-8.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@INST	L 51-60	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 26	vsINST	W 75-73	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 29	vsALCN	W 83-58	-16.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@GASO	L 69-77	+1.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 13	vsUL	W 65-44	-9.5	W +11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 17	@TULN	L 53-61	+4.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 114
Dec 29	vsUTEP	W 75-63	-2.5	W +9.5	130.5	O 138
Jan 2	@MTSU	L 51-88	+6.5	L −30.5	134.5	O 139
Jan 4	@WKU	L 61-66	+9.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	vsLIB	L 56-72	+4.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsDEL	W 70-68	-6.5	L −4.5	123.5	O 138
Jan 14	vsMTSU	W 59-58	+3.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 117
Jan 17	@JXST	L 60-64	+4.5	W +0.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsKENN	W 82-76	+1.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 28	@UTEP	W 69-59	+2.5	W +12.5	130.5	U 128
Jan 31	@SHSU	L 67-83	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsNMSU	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 7	vsSHSU	W 87-78	+3.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 165
Feb 12	@MOST	W 79-78	+3.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 14	@FIU	L 64-77	+3.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 18	vsJXST	W 77-71	-2.5	W +3.5	132.5	O 148
Feb 21	@KENN	L 55-58	+5.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 113
Feb 26	vsMOST	W 72-70	-2.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsFIU	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Mar 5	@LIB	W 76-71	+8.5	W +13.5	136.5	O 147
Mar 7	@DEL	W 81-38	-2.5	W +40.5	132.5	U 119
Mar 12	vsMTSU	W 80-69	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 149
Mar 13	vsMOST	W 69-66	+1.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 135
Mar 14	vsKENN	L 60-71	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−17.5

JKST

W 68-51

+8.5

INST

L 51-60

−5.5

INST

W 75-73

−0.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+8.5

GASO

L 69-77

−6.5

W 65-44

+11.5

TULN

L 53-61

−3.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+9.5

MTSU

L 51-88

−30.5

WKU

L 61-66

+4.5

LIB

L 56-72

−11.5

DEL

W 70-68

−4.5

MTSU

W 59-58

+4.5

JXST

L 60-64

+0.5

KENN

W 82-76

+7.5

UTEP

W 69-59

+12.5

SHSU

L 67-83

−8.5

NMSU

L 63-72

−10.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+12.5

MOST

W 79-78

+4.5

FIU

L 64-77

−9.5

JXST

W 77-71

+3.5

KENN

L 55-58

+2.5

MOST

W 72-70

−0.5

FIU

L 76-84

−10.5

LIB

W 76-71

+13.5

DEL

W 81-38

+40.5

MTSU

W 80-69

+12.5

MOST

W 69-66

+4.5

KENN

L 60-71

−9.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−9.5

JKST

W 68-51

−27.5

INST

L 51-60

−36.5

INST

W 75-73

+6.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+3.5

GASO

L 69-77

+0.5

W 65-44

−17.5

TULN

L 53-61

−26.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+7.5

MTSU

L 51-88

+4.5

WKU

L 61-66

−18.5

LIB

L 56-72

−7.5

DEL

W 70-68

+14.5

MTSU

W 59-58

−14.5

JXST

L 60-64

−3.5

KENN

W 82-76

+13.5

UTEP

W 69-59

−2.5

SHSU

L 67-83

+8.5

NMSU

L 63-72

−0.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+21.5

MOST

W 79-78

+20.5

FIU

L 64-77

−5.5

JXST

W 77-71

+15.5

KENN

L 55-58

−34.5

MOST

W 72-70

+3.5

FIU

L 76-84

+14.5

LIB

W 76-71

+10.5

DEL

W 81-38

−13.5

MTSU

W 80-69

+14.5

MOST

W 69-66

+0.5

KENN

L 60-71

−11.5

over 16under 15avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nicholls

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

L L L L L L L W W L W W W W W L L L L L W W L L W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L L W L L W W L W W W L W L L L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O O O U O O O U U O O O O U U U U U O O O O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@UK	L 51-77	+31.5	W +5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	@EIU	L 57-65	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 12	@VAL	L 63-68	+2.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 15	@MUR	L 79-99	+14.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 22	@OKST	L 81-95	+23.5	W +9.5	155.5	O 176
Nov 28	@TULN	L 72-82	+8.5	L −1.5	148.5	O 154
Dec 2	@CREI	L 76-96	+18.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 172
Dec 6	vsUIW	W 74-67	+1.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 141
Dec 17	vsHCU	W 79-64	-3.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 143
Dec 21	@PAC	L 82-95	+8.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 177
Dec 29	@AMCC	W 76-71	+5.5	W +10.5	137.5	O 147
Dec 31	@RGV	W 71-69	+3.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsETAM	W 80-58	-6.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 5	vsNWST	W 74-72	-8.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 10	@NOLA	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 12	@MCN	L 68-94	+15.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 17	vsLAM	L 80-90	-3.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 170
Jan 19	vsSFA	L 62-79	+4.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 141
Jan 24	@SELA	L 61-67	+2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsNOLA	L 62-80	-4.5	L −22.5	157.5	U 142
Jan 31	@ETAM	W 72-68	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 2	@NWST	W 61-58	-1.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 119
Feb 7	vsAMCC	L 76-83	-1.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 159
Feb 9	vsRGV	L 72-92	+3.5	L −16.5	147.5	O 164
Feb 14	@UIW	W 91-83	+2.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 174
Feb 16	@HCU	L 68-72	+1.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 140
Feb 21	@SFA	L 78-81	+12.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 159
Feb 23	@LAM	W 53-52	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 105
Feb 28	vsSELA	W 68-60	-4.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 128
Mar 2	vsMCN	L 65-75	+9.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 8	vsNWST	W 61-47	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	U 108
Mar 9	vsRGV	L 68-86	+5.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-77

+5.5

EIU

L 57-65

−10.5

VAL

L 63-68

−2.5

MUR

L 79-99

−5.5

OKST

L 81-95

+9.5

TULN

L 72-82

−1.5

CREI

L 76-96

−1.5

UIW

W 74-67

+8.5

HCU

W 79-64

+11.5

PAC

L 82-95

−4.5

AMCC

W 76-71

+10.5

RGV

W 71-69

+5.5

ETAM

W 80-58

+15.5

NWST

W 74-72

−6.5

NOLA

W 90-77

+9.5

MCN

L 68-94

−10.5

LAM

L 80-90

−13.5

SFA

L 62-79

−12.5

SELA

L 61-67

−3.5

NOLA

L 62-80

−22.5

ETAM

W 72-68

+5.5

NWST

W 61-58

+1.5

AMCC

L 76-83

−8.5

RGV

L 72-92

−16.5

UIW

W 91-83

+10.5

HCU

L 68-72

−2.5

SFA

L 78-81

+9.5

LAM

W 53-52

+4.5

SELA

W 68-60

+3.5

MCN

L 65-75

−0.5

NWST

W 61-47

+12.5

RGV

L 68-86

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-77

−29.5

EIU

L 57-65

−13.5

VAL

L 63-68

−13.5

MUR

L 79-99

+20.5

OKST

L 81-95

+20.5

TULN

L 72-82

+5.5

CREI

L 76-96

+28.5

UIW

W 74-67

−4.5

HCU

W 79-64

+5.5

PAC

L 82-95

+37.5

AMCC

W 76-71

+9.5

RGV

W 71-69

−5.5

ETAM

W 80-58

−8.5

NWST

W 74-72

+1.5

NOLA

W 90-77

+12.5

MCN

L 68-94

+15.5

LAM

L 80-90

+30.5

SFA

L 62-79

−3.5

SELA

L 61-67

−13.5

NOLA

L 62-80

−15.5

ETAM

W 72-68

−6.5

NWST

W 61-58

−28.5

AMCC

L 76-83

+21.5

RGV

L 72-92

+16.5

UIW

W 91-83

+25.5

HCU

L 68-72

+3.5

SFA

L 78-81

+11.5

LAM

W 53-52

−38.5

SELA

W 68-60

−11.5

MCN

L 65-75

−5.5

NWST

W 61-47

−30.5

RGV

L 68-86

+10.5

over 17under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nicholls has the better starters

Position by position: Louisiana Tech 0, Nicholls 1, even 4

Louisiana TechBetterNicholls

G J. Fenner5.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

NICHBig

G D. Cockrill TR11.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 75

G D. Bates NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G C. Winborne7.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 29

G K. Tilley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G S. Sharp4.1 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 19

F E. Blackmon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F A. Dent TR6 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

F L. Rowe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F J. Sileu TR0.3 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

Louisiana TechBetterNicholls

LT offense302nd of 366 · -9.4

Even

NICH defense282nd of 366 · -7.0

LT defense184th of 366 · -4.3

LTSmall

NICH offense283rd of 366 · -8.7

Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-2.5 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestLT betterNICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Louisiana Tech

Guards

J. Fenner22 minD. BatesNewK. TilleyNewJ. TylerNewJ. SandersonNewA. BoydNew

Forwards

E. BlackmonNewL. RoweNewB. WengerNewI. EmelifeNewI. FrancisNew

Nicholls

Guards

D. Cockrill24 min · TRC. Winborne23 minS. Sharp17 minH. Carter4 min · TRC. Simpson3 min · TRJ. Matthews2 min

Forwards

A. Dent13 min · TRJ. Sileu7 min · TRA. Arop2 min · TRM. MboupNewJ. TaylorNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LT67.8 #318

NICH71.0 #266

Points per possession

LT1.03 #284

NICH1.04 #275

Pace (possessions)

LT65.5 #332

NICH68.3 #210

Shooting

Effective FG%

LT47.4 #329

NICH50.6 #205

3-point %

LT28.6 #359

NICH33.3 #215

3-point attempt rate

LT33.4 #310

NICH43.9 #90

Free throw rate

LT33.1 #234

NICH34.5 #195

Possessions

Turnover rate

LT18.2 #283

NICH17.4 #232

Offensive rebound rate

LT36.4 #21

NICH28.1 #263

Assists per game

LT11.9 #297

NICH12.9 #219

Defense

Points allowed

LT67.8 #30

NICH75.7 #209

Points allowed per possession

LT1.04 #75

NICH1.11 #243

Opponent effective FG%

LT48.7 #51

NICH54.4 #311

Opponent 3-point %

LT33.9 #178

NICH34.6 #224

Turnovers forced

LT17.9 #102

NICH20.5 #15

Defensive rebound rate

LT68.4 #232

NICH66.3 #314

Steals per game

LT6.8 #144

NICH8.7 #15

Blocks per game

LT4.6 #31

NICH2.8 #270

LT		NICH
Scoring
67.8 #318	Points per game	71.0 #266
1.03 #284	Points per possession	1.04 #275
65.5 #332	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #210
Shooting
47.4 #329	Effective FG%	50.6 #205
28.6 #359	3-point %	33.3 #215
33.4 #310	3-point attempt rate	43.9 #90
33.1 #234	Free throw rate	34.5 #195
Possessions
18.2 #283	Turnover rate	17.4 #232
36.4 #21	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #263
11.9 #297	Assists per game	12.9 #219
Defense
67.8 #30	Points allowed	75.7 #209
1.04 #75	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #243
48.7 #51	Opponent effective FG%	54.4 #311
33.9 #178	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #224
17.9 #102	Turnovers forced	20.5 #15
68.4 #232	Defensive rebound rate	66.3 #314
6.8 #144	Steals per game	8.7 #15
4.6 #31	Blocks per game	2.8 #270

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Louisiana Tech

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kennesaw St60–71
Wvs Missouri St69–66
Wvs MTSU80–69
W@ Delaware81–38
W@ Liberty76–71

A week or more of rest.

Nicholls

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UT Rio Grande68–86
Wvs N'Western St61–47
Lvs McNeese65–75
Wvs SE Louisiana68–60
W@ Lamar53–52

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Nicholls Colonels

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana Tech

Nicholls

Nicholls has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Louisiana Tech

Nicholls