1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. MER @ DAV
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Mercer Bears at Davidson Wildcats

John M. Belk Arena · at Davidson
#242MERMercer
@
#115DAVDavidson
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MERThis seasonDAV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAV 79–67 · win probability DAV 85%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAV has more of the edges

MER 1, DAV 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MERBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MER 39.2, DAV 31.0. Allowed: MER 29.7, DAV 37.1
DAVBig
MER offense vs DAV defense
Offense 223rd of 366 against a defense 84th, on the model’s ratings
DAVBig
DAV offense vs MER defense
Offense 149th of 366 against a defense 268th, on the model’s ratings
DAVSmall
Three-pointers
MER hits 35.6% and allows 36.2%; DAV hits 35.4% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 39.2% and 44.5% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
MER has played the 193rd-hardest schedule, DAV the 91st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: MER plays 69.5 a game (148th fastest), DAV 65.0 (347th). Faster games mean more points
DAVSmall
Home court
DAV at home. This season: DAV 0-0 at home, MER 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MER 53.1 and allows 52.5; DAV 52.6 and allows 50.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MER 28%, DAV 49%. Transfers in: MER 2, DAV 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MER 15.0%, DAV 15.8%. Forced: MER 17.0%, DAV 17.5%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MER 32.6%, DAV 28.1%. Defensive: MER 66.8%, DAV 70.0%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DAV -11.9—
Total—146.0—
Projected score—MER 67 · DAV 78.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDAV -7.0—
1H total68.3—
1H projected scoreMER 30.7 · DAV 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Davidson has the better starters

Position by position: Mercer 0, Davidson 2, even 3
MercerBetterDavidson
G B. Shoulders9.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
DAVBig
G N. Janowski TR16.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81
G Q. Perkins8.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 22
Even
G S. Brown7.9 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 33
F K. Steele TR8 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 62
Even
G N. Coval6.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49
F M. Mabor Makoi TR1.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 10
DAVBig
F J. Scovens11.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88
F P. Padegimas NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
C I. Platteeuw3.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 43
MercerBetterDavidson
MER offense223rd of 366 · -6.8
DAVBig
DAV defense84th of 366 · +0.0
MER defense268th of 366 · -6.8
DAVSmall
DAV offense149th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt-3.4 · 2 players
DAVBig
Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
DAVSmall
Frontcourt+2.2 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestMER betterDAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mercer
Guards
B. Shoulders32 minQ. Perkins24 minM. KoveosNewD. BarrNewH. LyttleNewK. LamonteNew
Forwards
K. Steele21 min · TRM. Mabor Makoi8 min · TRP. PadegimasNewS. MayhughNewD. KovacevicNew
Davidson
Guards
N. Janowski32 min · TRS. Brown24 minN. Coval19 minP. Kavu1 minJ. CarterNewE. HeinonenNew
Forwards
J. Scovens25 minJ. Roberts12 minJ. Keith9 min · TRJ. Nowland1 minQ. BashiruNewT. StoiberNew
Centers
I. Platteeuw15 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MERDAV
Scoring
80.1 #65Points per game69.9 #289
1.15 #55Points per possession1.08 #189
69.5 #148Pace (possessions)65.0 #347
Shooting
53.1 #98Effective FG%52.6 #121
35.6 #873-point %35.4 #92
39.2 #1883-point attempt rate44.5 #79
39.2 #74Free throw rate31.0 #283
Possessions
15.0 #67Turnover rate15.8 #124
32.6 #102Offensive rebound rate28.1 #265
12.7 #240Assists per game13.4 #184
Defense
77.8 #263Points allowed68.5 #40
1.12 #273Points allowed per possession1.05 #94
52.5 #242Opponent effective FG%50.6 #132
36.2 #311Opponent 3-point %32.6 #92
17.0 #155Turnovers forced17.5 #121
66.8 #303Defensive rebound rate70.0 #157
7.1 #115Steals per game6.4 #189
3.2 #186Blocks per game4.1 #66
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercer

16-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs W Carolina73–77
  • Wvs ETSU82–76
  • L@ W Carolina74–78
  • Wvs Samford89–86
  • Lvs Chattanooga90–94

A week or more of rest.

Davidson

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Oklahoma St80–84
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's58–70
  • Wvs Loyola Chicago64–59
  • W@ St Bonaventure68–63
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's67–70

A week or more of rest.