1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. BRAD @ DAV
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Bradley Braves at Davidson Wildcats

John M. Belk Arena · at Davidson
#167BRADBradley
@
#115DAVDavidson
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BRADThis seasonDAV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAV 76–68 · win probability DAV 76%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAV has more of the edges

BRAD 2, DAV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: BRAD plays 69.9 a game (125th fastest), DAV 65.0 (347th). Faster games mean more points
DAVSmall
Three-pointers
BRAD hits 36.1% and allows 36.6%; DAV hits 35.4% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 40.5% and 44.5% of their shots
DAVSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: BRAD 51.1 and allows 52.8; DAV 52.6 and allows 50.6
DAVSmall
BRAD offense vs DAV defense
Offense 175th of 366 against a defense 84th, on the model’s ratings
BRADSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BRAD 13.9%, DAV 15.8%. Forced: BRAD 18.9%, DAV 17.5%
Context
Schedule so far
BRAD has played the 155th-hardest schedule, DAV the 91st. A record against a soft schedule means less
DAVSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BRAD 16%, DAV 49%. Transfers in: BRAD 3, DAV 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
DAVSmall
Home court
DAV at home. This season: DAV 0-0 at home, BRAD 0-0 away
BRADSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: BRAD 35.9, DAV 31.0. Allowed: BRAD 38.2, DAV 37.1
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BRAD 27.4%, DAV 28.1%. Defensive: BRAD 72.2%, DAV 70.0%
Even
DAV offense vs BRAD defense
Offense 149th of 366 against a defense 185th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DAV -8.1—
Total—144.6—
Projected score—BRAD 68.3 · DAV 76.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDAV -4.7—
1H total67.6—
1H projected scoreBRAD 31.5 · DAV 36.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Davidson has the better starters

Position by position: Bradley 0, Davidson 2, even 3
BradleyBetterDavidson
G T. Payton TR9.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 15
DAVBig
G N. Janowski TR16.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81
G T. van der Knaap6.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 30
Even
G S. Brown7.9 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 33
G D. Richardson2.2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G N. Coval6.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49
F X. Alarie TR10.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 50
DAVBig
F J. Scovens11.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88
F J. Ibukunoluwa TR2.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
C I. Platteeuw3.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 43
BradleyBetterDavidson
BRAD offense175th of 366 · -5.4
DAVSmall
DAV defense84th of 366 · +0.0
BRAD defense185th of 366 · -4.3
Even
DAV offense149th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players
DAVBig
Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
DAVSmall
Frontcourt+2.2 · 2 players
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestBRAD betterDAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bradley
Guards
T. Payton34 min · TRT. van der Knaap23 minD. Richardson7 minG. Rugaard1 minK. GrillNewG. GerganovNew
Forwards
X. Alarie28 min · TRJ. Ibukunoluwa6 min · TRB. ThornbrueNew
Centers
G. GuimaresNew
Davidson
Guards
N. Janowski32 min · TRS. Brown24 minN. Coval19 minP. Kavu1 minJ. CarterNewE. HeinonenNew
Forwards
J. Scovens25 minJ. Roberts12 minJ. Keith9 min · TRJ. Nowland1 minQ. BashiruNewT. StoiberNew
Centers
I. Platteeuw15 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BRADDAV
Scoring
77.0 #117Points per game69.9 #289
1.10 #129Points per possession1.08 #189
69.9 #125Pace (possessions)65.0 #347
Shooting
51.1 #189Effective FG%52.6 #121
36.1 #533-point %35.4 #92
40.5 #1613-point attempt rate44.5 #79
35.9 #156Free throw rate31.0 #283
Possessions
13.9 #19Turnover rate15.8 #124
27.4 #285Offensive rebound rate28.1 #265
13.3 #191Assists per game13.4 #184
Defense
74.2 #162Points allowed68.5 #40
1.06 #109Points allowed per possession1.05 #94
52.8 #259Opponent effective FG%50.6 #132
36.6 #334Opponent 3-point %32.6 #92
18.9 #53Turnovers forced17.5 #121
72.2 #62Defensive rebound rate70.0 #157
7.5 #86Steals per game6.4 #189
3.2 #192Blocks per game4.1 #66
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bradley

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Dayton66–80
  • Lvs Northern Iowa69–73
  • Wvs Valparaiso90–84
  • Wvs Murray St87–78
  • L@ UIC86–93

A week or more of rest.

Davidson

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Oklahoma St80–84
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's58–70
  • Wvs Loyola Chicago64–59
  • W@ St Bonaventure68–63
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's67–70

A week or more of rest.