Bradley Braves vs Coppin State Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 PM ETMcArthur Center · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bradley and Coppin St
BRAD	This season	COPP
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BRAD 80–66 · win probability BRAD 89%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BRAD has more of the edges

BRAD 6, COPP 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BRADBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BRAD 13.9%, COPP 22.3%. Forced: BRAD 18.9%, COPP 17.6%

BRADBig

COPP offense vs BRAD defense

Offense 351st of 366 against a defense 185th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BRAD has played the 155th-hardest schedule, COPP the 313th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BRADBig

Three-pointers

BRAD hits 36.1% and allows 36.6%; COPP hits 30.7% and allows 38.3%. Threes are 40.5% and 35.2% of their shots

BRADBig

BRAD offense vs COPP defense

Offense 175th of 366 against a defense 324th, on the model’s ratings

BRADBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BRAD 51.1 and allows 52.8; COPP 45.9 and allows 55.4

COPPSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BRAD 16%, COPP 68%. Transfers in: BRAD 3, COPP 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

BRADSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BRAD 27.4%, COPP 30.4%. Defensive: BRAD 72.2%, COPP 65.3%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: BRAD plays 69.9 a game (125th fastest), COPP 69.3 (159th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BRAD 35.9, COPP 38.5. Allowed: BRAD 38.2, COPP 42.9

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BRAD -14.2	—
Total	—	145.5	—
Projected score	—	BRAD 79.9 · COPP 65.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRAD -8.6	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	BRAD 38.3 · COPP 29.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BRAD LWWWL	14-19	42%	4-2	—
COPP WWLLW	13-17	43%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BRAD neutral site; COPP neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BRAD OOOOO	19-14	58%	20-13
COPP UOOOU	19-11	63%	6-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BRAD	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
COPP	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bradley

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs GMU	W75–67WO
Nov 18	vs PFW	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ PAC	No recent meeting

Coppin St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ USF	L50–100LU
Nov 18	@ LAS	L59–87LO
Nov 21	@ GTWN	L67–97WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bradley

33 games played

Straight up

20-13

61% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1361%

L W L L W W L W W W W W W L L W W W L W L W W L W W L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1942%

L W L L L W L W L W W L L L L W W L L L L W L L W W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

U U O U O O O U U U O U U O U O O O O U O O U U O U O U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSBU	L 63-69	+1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCMU	W 85-54	-9.5	W +21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsUTM	L 67-78	-15.5	L −26.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 15	@SF	L 64-75	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 19	vsUML	W 87-77	-21.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 24	vsPRIN	W 88-64	-9.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsUCSD	L 77-87	-1.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsLIB	W 74-64	+4.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 2	vsWSU	W 64-60	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsNIU	W 84-55	-18.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 18	@INST	W 108-99	-5.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 207
Dec 21	vsSIU	W 73-69	-6.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 29	vsEVAN	W 76-68	-11.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 1	@BEL	L 78-88	+3.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 166
Jan 4	@MUR	L 66-86	+5.5	L −14.5	162.5	U 152
Jan 7	vsDRKE	W 93-66	-6.5	W +20.5	144.5	O 159
Jan 10	vsUNI	W 75-69	-4.5	W +1.5	131.5	O 144
Jan 13	@EVAN	W 94-90	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 184
Jan 17	@ILST	L 62-88	+5.5	L −20.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsINST	W 75-68	-8.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	vsUIC	L 70-85	-7.5	L −22.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 31	@DRKE	W 87-73	-2.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 3	vsVAL	W 72-65	-7.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 6	@UNI	L 49-61	+3.5	L −8.5	134.5	U 110
Feb 9	vsBEL	W 95-84	+1.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 179
Feb 15	@SIU	W 70-60	+2.5	W +12.5	146.5	U 130
Feb 18	@VAL	L 72-79	-2.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 21	vsILST	W 74-60	-3.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 134
Feb 24	@UIC	L 86-93	+1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 179
Mar 1	vsMUR	W 87-78	-3.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsVAL	W 90-84	-5.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 174
Mar 7	vsUNI	L 69-73	+4.5	W +0.5	127.5	O 142
Mar 18	vsDAY	L 66-80	+2.5	L −11.5	141.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−4.5

CMU

W 85-54

+21.5

UTM

L 67-78

−26.5

L 64-75

−1.5

UML

W 87-77

−11.5

PRIN

W 88-64

+14.5

UCSD

L 77-87

−11.5

LIB

W 74-64

+14.5

WSU

W 64-60

−1.5

NIU

W 84-55

+10.5

INST

W 108-99

+3.5

SIU

W 73-69

−2.5

EVAN

W 76-68

−3.5

BEL

L 78-88

−6.5

MUR

L 66-86

−14.5

DRKE

W 93-66

+20.5

UNI

W 75-69

+1.5

EVAN

W 94-90

−3.5

ILST

L 62-88

−20.5

INST

W 75-68

−1.5

UIC

L 70-85

−22.5

DRKE

W 87-73

+11.5

VAL

W 72-65

−0.5

UNI

L 49-61

−8.5

BEL

W 95-84

+12.5

SIU

W 70-60

+12.5

VAL

L 72-79

−9.5

ILST

W 74-60

+10.5

UIC

L 86-93

−5.5

MUR

W 87-78

+5.5

VAL

W 90-84

+0.5

UNI

L 69-73

+0.5

DAY

L 66-80

−11.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−7.5

CMU

W 85-54

−8.5

UTM

L 67-78

+0.5

L 64-75

−7.5

UML

W 87-77

+14.5

PRIN

W 88-64

+10.5

UCSD

L 77-87

+18.5

LIB

W 74-64

−6.5

WSU

W 64-60

−24.5

NIU

W 84-55

−7.5

INST

W 108-99

+56.5

SIU

W 73-69

−10.5

EVAN

W 76-68

−0.5

BEL

L 78-88

+12.5

MUR

L 66-86

−10.5

DRKE

W 93-66

+14.5

UNI

W 75-69

+12.5

EVAN

W 94-90

+41.5

ILST

L 62-88

+2.5

INST

W 75-68

−12.5

UIC

L 70-85

+10.5

DRKE

W 87-73

+9.5

VAL

W 72-65

−7.5

UNI

L 49-61

−24.5

BEL

W 95-84

+26.5

SIU

W 70-60

−16.5

VAL

L 72-79

+8.5

ILST

W 74-60

−11.5

UIC

L 86-93

+37.5

MUR

W 87-78

+7.5

VAL

W 90-84

+34.5

UNI

L 69-73

+14.5

DAY

L 66-80

+4.5

over 19under 14avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Coppin St

30 games played

Straight up

6-24

20% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2420%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L W L L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L W W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1163%

O O O U U O O U O O U O O U O O U O O O O O U U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMD	L 61-83	+28.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 5	@LAS	L 59-87	+17.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 9	@JMU	L 70-84	+18.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@USF	L 50-100	+34.5	L −15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 14	vsCMU	L 59-82	+10.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsUSA	L 62-72	+18.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 22	@VCU	L 58-101	+32.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 25	@RID	W 68-65	+8.5	W +11.5	139.5	U 133
Nov 30	@L-MD	L 84-95	+9.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@WVU	L 49-91	+31.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 6	@LIB	L 50-92	+30.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 9	@JOES	L 65-87	+22.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 14	@RAD	L 77-107	+20.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 184
Dec 19	@NAVY	L 55-88	+20.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 22	@GTWN	L 67-97	+33.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 164
Dec 29	vsUMBC	L 59-93	+10.5	L −23.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 3	@DSU	W 53-51	+8.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 104
Jan 10	vsNCCU	L 77-88	+6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 12	vsSCST	L 72-74	-1.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	@UMES	L 67-70	+10.5	W +7.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 24	@NORF	L 76-103	+13.5	L −13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 31	vsMORG	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 169
Feb 2	vsHOW	L 53-72	+14.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsDSU	W 65-47	+1.5	W +19.5	132.5	U 112
Feb 14	@NCCU	W 58-56	+10.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 114
Feb 16	@SCST	W 59-57	+4.5	W +6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 21	vsUMES	W 71-65	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 136
Feb 28	vsNORF	L 69-75	+5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@HOW	L 70-90	+19.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 160
Mar 5	@MORG	L 66-70	+5.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 61-83

+6.5

LAS

L 59-87

−10.5

JMU

L 70-84

+4.5

USF

L 50-100

−15.5

CMU

L 59-82

−12.5

USA

L 62-72

+8.5

VCU

L 58-101

−10.5

RID

W 68-65

+11.5

L-MD

L 84-95

−1.5

WVU

L 49-91

−10.5

LIB

L 50-92

−11.5

JOES

L 65-87

+0.5

RAD

L 77-107

−9.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−12.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 59-93

−23.5

DSU

W 53-51

+10.5

NCCU

L 77-88

−4.5

SCST

L 72-74

−3.5

UMES

L 67-70

+7.5

NORF

L 76-103

−13.5

MORG

L 80-89

−5.5

HOW

L 53-72

−4.5

DSU

W 65-47

+19.5

NCCU

W 58-56

+12.5

SCST

W 59-57

+6.5

UMES

W 71-65

+9.5

NORF

L 69-75

−0.5

HOW

L 70-90

−0.5

MORG

L 66-70

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 61-83

+4.5

LAS

L 59-87

+6.5

JMU

L 70-84

+12.5

USF

L 50-100

−17.5

CMU

L 59-82

−1.5

USA

L 62-72

+0.5

VCU

L 58-101

+7.5

RID

W 68-65

−6.5

L-MD

L 84-95

+35.5

WVU

L 49-91

+5.5

LIB

L 50-92

−1.5

JOES

L 65-87

+5.5

RAD

L 77-107

+29.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−2.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+13.5

UMBC

L 59-93

+3.5

DSU

W 53-51

−35.5

NCCU

L 77-88

+21.5

SCST

L 72-74

+5.5

UMES

L 67-70

+3.5

NORF

L 76-103

+35.5

MORG

L 80-89

+13.5

HOW

L 53-72

−21.5

DSU

W 65-47

−20.5

NCCU

W 58-56

−29.5

SCST

W 59-57

−22.5

UMES

W 71-65

+7.5

NORF

L 69-75

+3.5

HOW

L 70-90

+19.5

MORG

L 66-70

−13.5

over 19under 11avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bradley has the better starters

Position by position: Bradley 1, Coppin St 0, even 4

BradleyBetterCoppin St

G T. Payton TR9.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 15

Even

G H. Williams7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

G T. van der Knaap6.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 30

Even

G C. Sparrow5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 40

G D. Richardson2.2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Piercy6.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 23

F X. Alarie TR10.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 50

BRADSmall

F N. Lamizana6.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 18

F J. Ibukunoluwa TR2.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Koenig5.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28

BradleyBetterCoppin St

BRAD offense175th of 366 · -5.4

BRADBig

COPP defense324th of 366 · -8.4

BRAD defense185th of 366 · -4.3

BRADBig

COPP offense351st of 366 · -12.8

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

COPPSmall

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players

BRADSmall

Frontcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

BRADBig

Bench-6.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBRAD betterCOPP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bradley

Guards

T. Payton34 min · TRT. van der Knaap23 minD. Richardson7 minG. Rugaard1 minK. GrillNewG. GerganovNew

Forwards

X. Alarie28 min · TRJ. Ibukunoluwa6 min · TRB. ThornbrueNew

Centers

G. GuimaresNew

Coppin St

Guards

H. Williams20 minC. Sparrow19 minJ. Piercy18 minB. Saunders16 minD. Lydner12 minJ. Brown5 min

Forwards

N. Lamizana19 minT. Koenig17 minT. Gapare16 min · TRE. TaylorNewL. LawalNewA. MyersNew

Centers

F. Aire9 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BRAD77.0 #117

COPP64.3 #352

Points per possession

BRAD1.10 #129

COPP0.93 #362

Pace (possessions)

BRAD69.9 #125

COPP69.3 #159

Shooting

Effective FG%

BRAD51.1 #189

COPP45.9 #350

3-point %

BRAD36.1 #53

COPP30.7 #326

3-point attempt rate

BRAD40.5 #161

COPP35.2 #273

Free throw rate

BRAD35.9 #156

COPP38.5 #90

Possessions

Turnover rate

BRAD13.9 #19

COPP22.3 #363

Offensive rebound rate

BRAD27.4 #285

COPP30.4 #183

Assists per game

BRAD13.3 #191

COPP11.4 #317

Defense

Points allowed

BRAD74.2 #162

COPP81.0 #334

Points allowed per possession

BRAD1.06 #109

COPP1.17 #342

Opponent effective FG%

BRAD52.8 #259

COPP55.4 #339

Opponent 3-point %

BRAD36.6 #334

COPP38.3 #360

Turnovers forced

BRAD18.9 #53

COPP17.6 #118

Defensive rebound rate

BRAD72.2 #62

COPP65.3 #333

Steals per game

BRAD7.5 #86

COPP6.0 #233

Blocks per game

BRAD3.2 #192

COPP3.5 #143

BRAD		COPP
Scoring
77.0 #117	Points per game	64.3 #352
1.10 #129	Points per possession	0.93 #362
69.9 #125	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #159
Shooting
51.1 #189	Effective FG%	45.9 #350
36.1 #53	3-point %	30.7 #326
40.5 #161	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #273
35.9 #156	Free throw rate	38.5 #90
Possessions
13.9 #19	Turnover rate	22.3 #363
27.4 #285	Offensive rebound rate	30.4 #183
13.3 #191	Assists per game	11.4 #317
Defense
74.2 #162	Points allowed	81.0 #334
1.06 #109	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #342
52.8 #259	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #339
36.6 #334	Opponent 3-point %	38.3 #360
18.9 #53	Turnovers forced	17.6 #118
72.2 #62	Defensive rebound rate	65.3 #333
7.5 #86	Steals per game	6.0 #233
3.2 #192	Blocks per game	3.5 #143

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bradley

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton66–80
Lvs Northern Iowa69–73
Wvs Valparaiso90–84
Wvs Murray St87–78
L@ UIC86–93

A week or more of rest.

Coppin St

6-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Morgan St66–70
L@ Howard70–90
Lvs Norfolk St69–75
Wvs MD Eastern71–65
W@ SC State59–57

A week or more of rest.

Bradley Braves vs Coppin State Eagles

What could decide it: BRAD has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bradley

Coppin St

Bradley has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bradley

Coppin St