Kansas City Roos vs George Mason Patriots: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 12, 3:00 PM ETMcArthur Center · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kansas City and George Mason
KC	This season	GMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GMU 82–62 · win probability GMU 96%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

KC 0, GMU 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GMUBig

KC offense vs GMU defense

Offense 321st of 366 against a defense 64th, on the model’s ratings

GMUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: KC 45.8 and allows 56.3; GMU 52.7 and allows 49.5

GMUBig

GMU offense vs KC defense

Offense 106th of 366 against a defense 335th, on the model’s ratings

GMUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: KC 26.4%, GMU 31.3%. Defensive: KC 64.1%, GMU 71.7%

GMUBig

Three-pointers

KC hits 28.4% and allows 37.5%; GMU hits 33.3% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 36.8% and 35.2% of their shots

GMUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: KC 29.2, GMU 41.1. Allowed: KC 31.4, GMU 28.9

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: KC plays 71.8 a game (45th fastest), GMU 64.7 (351st). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

KC has played the 235th-hardest schedule, GMU the 118th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GMUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: KC 18.2%, GMU 15.8%. Forced: KC 16.4%, GMU 15.5%

GMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: KC 0%, GMU 24%. Transfers in: KC 5, GMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GMU -20.1	—
Total	—	144.6	—
Projected score	—	KC 62.3 · GMU 82.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GMU -11.8	—
1H total	67.7	—
1H projected score	KC 27.9 · GMU 39.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
KC LLLLL	5-23	18%	0-1	—
GMU WWWLL	16-16	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: KC neutral site; GMU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OOUOU	16-12	57%	1-27
GMU UUUUO	15-17	47%	22-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	0-10 0%	0-10 0%	6-4 60%
GMU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas City

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ IONA	L91–105LO
Nov 24	vs GB	L64–70LO
Nov 28	vs SEMO	L59–80LO

George Mason

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs BRAD	L67–75LO
Nov 18	vs NCCU	W75–58WU
Nov 21	vs USF	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas City

28 games played

Straight up

1-27

4% wins

Against the spread

5-23

18% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-12

57% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-274%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-2318%

L L W L L L L L W W W L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1257%

O O U U U U U O U O O O U O O O O U U O O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 29	@WEB	L 61-82	+10.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsIDST	L 59-68	+5.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 127
Dec 6	@EWU	L 66-90	+9.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsWEB	L 60-64	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 16	@OU	L 67-89	+30.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 18	@OKST	L 79-91	+27.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 170
Dec 31	@DEN	L 74-87	+9.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 161
Jan 3	@OMA	W 73-66	+8.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsNDSU	L 73-97	+9.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsUND	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SDAK	L 83-99	+7.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 182
Jan 17	@SDST	L 62-90	+13.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 24	vsOMA	L 60-77	+4.5	L −12.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 28	vsDEN	L 61-69	+3.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 130
Feb 1	@STMN	L 64-99	+17.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	vsSDAK	L 75-82	+2.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 12	@ORU	L 60-69	+6.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 129
Feb 14	vsSTMN	L 64-104	+12.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 19	@UND	L 70-85	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 21	@NDSU	L 59-95	+19.5	L −16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	vsSDST	L 59-73	+12.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	vsORU	L 70-94	+3.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsORU	L 62-84	+8.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

WEB

L 61-82

−10.5

IDST

L 59-68

−3.5

EWU

L 66-90

−14.5

WEB

L 60-64

+3.5

L 67-89

+8.5

OKST

L 79-91

+15.5

DEN

L 74-87

−3.5

OMA

W 73-66

+15.5

NDSU

L 73-97

−14.5

UND

L 79-81

−3.5

SDAK

L 83-99

−8.5

SDST

L 62-90

−14.5

OMA

L 60-77

−12.5

DEN

L 61-69

−4.5

STMN

L 64-99

−17.5

SDAK

L 75-82

−4.5

ORU

L 60-69

−2.5

STMN

L 64-104

−27.5

UND

L 70-85

−5.5

NDSU

L 59-95

−16.5

SDST

L 59-73

−1.5

ORU

L 70-94

−20.5

ORU

L 62-84

−13.5

covered 5didn’t cover 23avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

WEB

L 61-82

−12.5

IDST

L 59-68

−10.5

EWU

L 66-90

+4.5

WEB

L 60-64

−26.5

L 67-89

+2.5

OKST

L 79-91

+8.5

DEN

L 74-87

+4.5

OMA

W 73-66

−9.5

NDSU

L 73-97

+25.5

UND

L 79-81

+13.5

SDAK

L 83-99

+25.5

SDST

L 62-90

+0.5

OMA

L 60-77

−11.5

DEN

L 61-69

−31.5

STMN

L 64-99

+11.5

SDAK

L 75-82

+0.5

ORU

L 60-69

−21.5

STMN

L 64-104

+13.5

UND

L 70-85

+4.5

NDSU

L 59-95

+5.5

SDST

L 59-73

−20.5

ORU

L 70-94

+14.5

ORU

L 62-84

−3.5

over 16under 12avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

George Mason

32 games played

Straight up

22-10

69% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1069%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W W L W L L L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L L W W W W W L L L L L W W W L W L W W L W L L L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O U U O U O O U U O O O U U O O U O U O U U O U O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWOF	W 70-46	-14.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 116
Nov 7	vsWIN	W 96-90	-9.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 15	vsUNH	W 61-44	-24.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	vsJAX	W 79-57	-16.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsOHIO	W 92-69	-7.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 161
Nov 25	vsFAU	W 74-65	-4.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsJMU	W 82-66	-12.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 2	vsCOR	W 99-81	-10.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 180
Dec 6	@VT	L 62-73	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 135
Dec 13	vsODU	W 73-61	-16.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 134
Dec 21	vsL-MD	W 86-79	-23.5	L −16.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 28	vsPENN	W 83-79	-16.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	@LAS	W 80-75	-8.5	L −3.5	134.5	O 155
Jan 3	vsURI	W 61-50	-6.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 111
Jan 7	@FOR	W 67-58	-5.5	W +3.5	134.5	U 125
Jan 10	vsVCU	W 86-80	+1.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 166
Jan 13	@LUC	W 82-74	-11.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 19	vsGW	W 69-64	-1.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 133
Jan 24	@URI	L 65-74	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 28	vsDAV	W 60-52	-6.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 112
Jan 31	@SBU	W 77-73	-1.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsDUQ	L 65-71	-8.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsJOES	W 60-52	-6.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 112
Feb 10	@RICH	L 70-82	-3.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 13	@GW	L 53-72	+3.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 18	vsDAY	L 67-82	-2.5	L −17.5	137.5	O 149
Feb 25	@JOES	L 63-81	-1.5	L −19.5	136.5	O 144
Feb 28	vsSBU	W 71-58	-3.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 129
Mar 3	@VCU	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 135
Mar 7	vsSLU	W 86-57	+7.5	W +36.5	146.5	U 143
Mar 12	vsSBU	L 57-63	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 120
Mar 17	vsLIB	L 71-77	-2.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

+9.5

WIN

W 96-90

−3.5

UNH

W 61-44

−7.5

JAX

W 79-57

+5.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+15.5

FAU

W 74-65

+4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+3.5

COR

W 99-81

+7.5

L 62-73

−6.5

ODU

W 73-61

−4.5

L-MD

W 86-79

−16.5

PENN

W 83-79

−12.5

LAS

W 80-75

−3.5

URI

W 61-50

+4.5

FOR

W 67-58

+3.5

VCU

W 86-80

+7.5

LUC

W 82-74

−3.5

W 69-64

+3.5

URI

L 65-74

−10.5

DAV

W 60-52

+1.5

SBU

W 77-73

+2.5

DUQ

L 65-71

−14.5

JOES

W 60-52

+1.5

RICH

L 70-82

−15.5

L 53-72

−15.5

DAY

L 67-82

−17.5

JOES

L 63-81

−19.5

SBU

W 71-58

+9.5

VCU

L 65-70

+4.5

SLU

W 86-57

+36.5

SBU

L 57-63

−8.5

LIB

L 71-77

−8.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

−24.5

WIN

W 96-90

+39.5

UNH

W 61-44

−39.5

JAX

W 79-57

−0.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+18.5

FAU

W 74-65

−4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+6.5

COR

W 99-81

+24.5

L 62-73

−9.5

ODU

W 73-61

−10.5

L-MD

W 86-79

+18.5

PENN

W 83-79

+15.5

LAS

W 80-75

+20.5

URI

W 61-50

−28.5

FOR

W 67-58

−9.5

VCU

W 86-80

+21.5

LUC

W 82-74

+15.5

W 69-64

−20.5

URI

L 65-74

+3.5

DAV

W 60-52

−22.5

SBU

W 77-73

+7.5

DUQ

L 65-71

−7.5

JOES

W 60-52

−27.5

RICH

L 70-82

+12.5

L 53-72

−24.5

DAY

L 67-82

+11.5

JOES

L 63-81

+7.5

SBU

W 71-58

−17.5

VCU

L 65-70

−12.5

SLU

W 86-57

−3.5

SBU

L 57-63

−23.5

LIB

L 71-77

+6.5

over 15under 17avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

George Mason has the better starters

Position by position: Kansas City 0, George Mason 3, even 2

Kansas CityBetterGeorge Mason

G C. Daughtery TR10 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 45

GMUBig

G B. Okojie TR20.1 pts · 3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 91

G J. Smith TR9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 3 ast Score 43

GMUSmall

G M. Valentine TR13.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast Score 71

G M. Samar TR4.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

Even

G L. Marville TR9.5 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 39

F S. Hartmann TR8.2 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

F E. Jones TR12.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78

F A. Diop TR5.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

GMUBig

F E. Adair TR14.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74

Kansas CityBetterGeorge Mason

KC offense321st of 366 · -10.5

GMUBig

GMU defense64th of 366 · +1.1

KC defense335th of 366 · -8.8

GMUBig

GMU offense106th of 366 · -1.5

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

GMUBig

Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

GMUBig

Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestKC betterGMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kansas City

Guards

C. Daughtery27 min · TRJ. Smith25 min · TRM. Samar16 min · TRE. MoskowitzNewD. JacksonNewC. LoveNew

Forwards

S. Hartmann24 min · TRA. Diop19 min · TRR. ButirinsNewJ. SickingNewA. BakhtadzeNewM. Bruce-McCrommonNew

George Mason

Guards

B. Okojie35 min · TRM. Valentine32 min · TRL. Marville26 min · TRE. Oliogu-Elabor16 min · TRM. Presley16 minB. O'Connor15 min

Forwards

E. Jones29 min · TRE. Adair26 min · TRM. Marcus24 min · TRE. Kanga13 minR. MendyNewS. PendergrassNew

Centers

J. Nnaji8 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

KC67.0 #334

GMU72.9 #227

Points per possession

KC0.93 #361

GMU1.13 #93

Pace (possessions)

KC71.8 #45

GMU64.7 #351

Shooting

Effective FG%

KC45.8 #352

GMU52.7 #113

3-point %

KC28.4 #360

GMU33.3 #214

3-point attempt rate

KC36.8 #235

GMU35.2 #270

Free throw rate

KC29.2 #330

GMU41.1 #44

Possessions

Turnover rate

KC18.2 #282

GMU15.8 #121

Offensive rebound rate

KC26.4 #314

GMU31.3 #149

Assists per game

KC11.3 #324

GMU12.6 #243

Defense

Points allowed

KC84.8 #359

GMU68.0 #31

Points allowed per possession

KC1.18 #348

GMU1.05 #89

Opponent effective FG%

KC56.3 #348

GMU49.5 #83

Opponent 3-point %

KC37.5 #350

GMU32.6 #91

Turnovers forced

KC16.4 #193

GMU15.5 #254

Defensive rebound rate

KC64.1 #353

GMU71.7 #79

Steals per game

KC6.4 #192

GMU5.0 #334

Blocks per game

KC3.1 #195

GMU3.0 #228

KC		GMU
Scoring
67.0 #334	Points per game	72.9 #227
0.93 #361	Points per possession	1.13 #93
71.8 #45	Pace (possessions)	64.7 #351
Shooting
45.8 #352	Effective FG%	52.7 #113
28.4 #360	3-point %	33.3 #214
36.8 #235	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #270
29.2 #330	Free throw rate	41.1 #44
Possessions
18.2 #282	Turnover rate	15.8 #121
26.4 #314	Offensive rebound rate	31.3 #149
11.3 #324	Assists per game	12.6 #243
Defense
84.8 #359	Points allowed	68.0 #31
1.18 #348	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #89
56.3 #348	Opponent effective FG%	49.5 #83
37.5 #350	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #91
16.4 #193	Turnovers forced	15.5 #254
64.1 #353	Defensive rebound rate	71.7 #79
6.4 #192	Steals per game	5.0 #334
3.1 #195	Blocks per game	3.0 #228

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kansas City

1-27 in 2025-26 overall · 1-16 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oral Roberts62–84
Lvs Oral Roberts70–94
Lvs S Dakota St59–73
L@ N Dakota St59–95
L@ North Dakota70–85

A week or more of rest.

George Mason

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Liberty71–77
Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
Wvs Saint Louis86–57
L@ VCU65–70
Wvs St Bonaventure71–58

A week or more of rest.

Kansas City Roos vs George Mason Patriots

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas City

George Mason

George Mason has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kansas City

George Mason