1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 12
  3. NMSU @ UTEP
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 12

New Mexico State Aggies at UTEP Miners

Don Haskins Center · at UTEP
#133NMSUNew Mexico St
@
#190UTEPUTEP
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NMSUThis seasonUTEP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NMSU 73–71 · win probability NMSU 55%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NMSU has more of the edges

NMSU 3, UTEP 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NMSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NMSU 32.5%, UTEP 26.2%. Defensive: NMSU 69.7%, UTEP 67.2%
NMSUSmall
UTEP offense vs NMSU defense
Offense 226th of 366 against a defense 125th, on the model’s ratings
NMSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NMSU 48.5 and allows 48.7; UTEP 48.3 and allows 51.5
UTEPSmall
Home court
UTEP at home. This season: UTEP 0-0 at home, NMSU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NMSU 22%, UTEP 0%. Transfers in: NMSU 6, UTEP 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NMSU plays 68.1 a game (224th fastest), UTEP 66.6 (291st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NMSU 15.0%, UTEP 17.4%. Forced: NMSU 14.7%, UTEP 18.0%
Even
NMSU offense vs UTEP defense
Offense 151st of 366 against a defense 173rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NMSU has played the 174th-hardest schedule, UTEP the 163rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
NMSU hits 32.4% and allows 32.4%; UTEP hits 33.9% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 38.7% and 40.3% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NMSU 34.9, UTEP 33.4. Allowed: NMSU 44.2, UTEP 42.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NMSU -1.4—
Total—144.2—
Projected score—NMSU 72.8 · UTEP 71.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNMSU -0.9—
1H total67.5—
1H projected scoreNMSU 34.2 · UTEP 33.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

New Mexico St has the better starters

Position by position: New Mexico St 1, UTEP 0, even 4
New Mexico StBetterUTEP
G J. Washington TR11.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 34
Even
G L. Moeller TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.7 ast Score 46
G G. Warren TR12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 68
NMSUBig
G J. Whiting TR10.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31
G D. Dudley TR14.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
Even
G R. Miller TR12.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 66
F M. Lavrenov TR10.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 40
Even
G R. Jackson TR6.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53
F J. Osborne6.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42
Even
F R. Cason TR3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 43
New Mexico StBetterUTEP
NMSU offense151st of 366 · -4.6
Even
UTEP defense173rd of 366 · -3.9
NMSU defense125th of 366 · -2.3
NMSUSmall
UTEP offense226th of 366 · -6.9
Backcourt-1.3 · 3 players
NMSUSmall
Backcourt-3.1 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
UTEPSmall
Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player
Bench-2.2 · 3 players
UTEPSmall
Bench-1.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestNMSU betterUTEP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
New Mexico St
Guards
J. Washington35 min · TRG. Warren32 min · TRD. Dudley31 min · TRG. Pickens21 minK. RobinsonNewD. GrantNew
Forwards
M. Lavrenov28 min · TRJ. Osborne24 minS. Payne20 min · TRL. Levillain20 min · TRP. WoodsonNew
Centers
A. DiongueNew
UTEP
Guards
L. Moeller33 min · TRJ. Whiting32 min · TRR. Miller25 min · TRR. Jackson18 min · TRC. McDanielsNewD. CrissNew
Forwards
R. Cason15 min · TRA. Cassia10 min · TRJ. Ratowski7 min · TRM. KelvinNewI. WardNewI. PerasovicNew
Centers
D. TarpleyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NMSUUTEP
Scoring
73.8 #207Points per game66.4 #340
1.08 #179Points per possession1.00 #326
68.1 #224Pace (possessions)66.6 #291
Shooting
48.5 #302Effective FG%48.3 #309
32.4 #2573-point %33.9 #178
38.7 #1983-point attempt rate40.3 #163
34.9 #186Free throw rate33.4 #227
Possessions
15.0 #66Turnover rate17.4 #229
32.5 #105Offensive rebound rate26.2 #319
12.5 #250Assists per game11.0 #338
Defense
73.8 #150Points allowed72.7 #125
1.08 #179Points allowed per possession1.09 #196
48.7 #52Opponent effective FG%51.5 #187
32.4 #83Opponent 3-point %34.0 #182
14.7 #311Turnovers forced18.0 #98
69.7 #175Defensive rebound rate67.2 #293
5.7 #276Steals per game7.1 #113
3.0 #221Blocks per game3.5 #149
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

New Mexico St

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Sam Houston61–69
  • Wvs Jax State68–63
  • Wvs Kennesaw St79–76
  • Wvs Jax State77–75
  • L@ MTSU85–86

A week or more of rest.

UTEP

8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Jax State61–64
  • Wvs Kennesaw St78–71
  • L@ Western KY65–97
  • L@ MTSU67–77
  • L@ New Mexico St63–67

A week or more of rest.