St. Bonaventure Bonnies at Canisius Golden Griffins: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ETKoessler Athletic Center · at Canisius

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: St Bonaventure and Canisius
SBU	This season	CAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SBU 77–65 · win probability SBU 87%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SBU has more of the edges

SBU 5, CAN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

SBU has played the 109th-hardest schedule, CAN the 337th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SBUBig

CAN offense vs SBU defense

Offense 358th of 366 against a defense 131st, on the model’s ratings

SBUBig

SBU offense vs CAN defense

Offense 169th of 366 against a defense 321st, on the model’s ratings

SBUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SBU 16.8%, CAN 19.6%. Forced: SBU 17.1%, CAN 16.0%

SBUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SBU 34.5%, CAN 29.3%. Defensive: SBU 70.2%, CAN 70.2%

SBUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SBU 52.4 and allows 53.3; CAN 46.3 and allows 52.2

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: SBU plays 68.0 a game (228th fastest), CAN 64.6 (353rd). Faster games mean more points

CANSmall

Home court

CAN at home. This season: CAN 0-0 at home, SBU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SBU 18%, CAN 1%. Transfers in: SBU 3, CAN 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

SBU hits 37.4% and allows 36.0%; CAN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 31.3% and 39.5% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SBU 30.0, CAN 31.4. Allowed: SBU 33.9, CAN 35.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SBU -12.7	—
Total	—	141.7	—
Projected score	—	SBU 77.2 · CAN 64.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SBU -7.7	—
1H total	66.3	—
1H projected score	SBU 37 · CAN 29.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SBU LLWWW	13-20	39%	6-5	—
CAN LWLWW	15-15	50%	7-7	—

Venue/role: SBU away; CAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SBU OUOUU	19-14	58%	16-17
CAN UOUUU	9-21	30%	9-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SBU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
CAN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

St Bonaventure

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs COR	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs LAF	No recent meeting
Nov 19	vs BUF	W77–69WO

Canisius

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	@ BRWN	L76–83WO
Nov 15	@ BUF	L53–71LU
Nov 20	vs MERC	W58–55WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SBU 3–2 CANSBU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · SBU has won the last 2 meetings · SBU 1-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	CAN 70 @ SBU 89	SBU -21.5	CAN W
Nov 9, 2024-25	SBU 87 @ CAN 78	CAN +7.5	SBU W
Nov 11, 2023-24	CAN 70 @ SBU 67	SBU -11.5	CAN W
Nov 12, 2022-23	SBU 80 @ CAN 84	CAN +6.5	CAN W
Nov 14, 2021-22	CAN 60 @ SBU 69	SBU -20.5	CAN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Bonaventure

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W W W W W L W W W W L W L L L L L W L W L L W L L L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-2039%

W L L L W L L W W L L L W L L L L W L W L W W L L L W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1458%

U O O O U O U U O O O O O O O U O O U O O U U U U O O U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRAD	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCAN	W 89-70	-21.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsSIE	W 75-66	-9.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 15	vsYSU	W 84-80	-9.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 20	vsRMU	W 75-61	-11.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsUNC	L 70-85	+10.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 27	vsECU	W 67-58	-10.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 30	@FAU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 135
Dec 6	@BUF	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 10	vsCOLG	W 85-77	-9.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 162
Dec 13	vsOHIO	L 83-88	-6.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 171
Dec 20	vsLEM	W 92-81	-21.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 31	@VCU	L 82-89	+9.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 7	vsRICH	L 80-89	-6.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsFOR	L 77-81	-8.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 14	@JOES	L 64-68	-1.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 132
Jan 17	@LAS	L 74-78	-5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 20	vsLUC	W 84-70	-10.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 23	vsSLU	L 62-97	+8.5	L −26.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 28	@DUQ	W 87-79	+3.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 31	vsGMU	L 73-77	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 150
Feb 3	@DAY	L 70-72	+7.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 7	@FOR	W 70-67	-1.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsDUQ	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 151
Feb 18	vsJOES	L 65-71	-5.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Feb 21	@RICH	L 94-99	+1.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 26	vsURI	W 94-76	-2.5	W +15.5	144.5	O 170
Feb 28	@GMU	L 58-71	+3.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 129
Mar 4	@GW	L 82-91	+7.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 7	vsDAV	L 63-68	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 11	vsLAS	W 99-80	-7.5	W +11.5	146.5	O 179
Mar 12	vsGMU	W 63-57	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 120
Mar 13	vsDAY	L 63-68	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

+4.5

CAN

W 89-70

−2.5

SIE

W 75-66

−0.5

YSU

W 84-80

−5.5

RMU

W 75-61

+2.5

UNC

L 70-85

−4.5

ECU

W 67-58

−1.5

FAU

W 70-65

+6.5

BUF

W 77-69

+2.5

COLG

W 85-77

−1.5

OHIO

L 83-88

−11.5

LEM

W 92-81

−10.5

VCU

L 82-89

+2.5

RICH

L 80-89

−15.5

FOR

L 77-81

−12.5

JOES

L 64-68

−5.5

LAS

L 74-78

−9.5

LUC

W 84-70

+3.5

SLU

L 62-97

−26.5

DUQ

W 87-79

+11.5

GMU

L 73-77

−2.5

DAY

L 70-72

+5.5

FOR

W 70-67

+1.5

DUQ

L 73-78

−6.5

JOES

L 65-71

−11.5

RICH

L 94-99

−3.5

URI

W 94-76

+15.5

GMU

L 58-71

−9.5

L 82-91

−1.5

DAV

L 63-68

−9.5

LAS

W 99-80

+11.5

GMU

W 63-57

+8.5

DAY

L 63-68

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

−7.5

CAN

W 89-70

+22.5

SIE

W 75-66

+0.5

YSU

W 84-80

+17.5

RMU

W 75-61

−10.5

UNC

L 70-85

+2.5

ECU

W 67-58

−19.5

FAU

W 70-65

−11.5

BUF

W 77-69

+1.5

COLG

W 85-77

+19.5

OHIO

L 83-88

+20.5

LEM

W 92-81

+21.5

VCU

L 82-89

+13.5

RICH

L 80-89

+15.5

FOR

L 77-81

+15.5

JOES

L 64-68

−15.5

LAS

L 74-78

+10.5

LUC

W 84-70

+6.5

SLU

L 62-97

−0.5

DUQ

W 87-79

+15.5

GMU

L 73-77

+7.5

DAY

L 70-72

−2.5

FOR

W 70-67

−4.5

DUQ

L 73-78

−1.5

JOES

L 65-71

−11.5

RICH

L 94-99

+45.5

URI

W 94-76

+25.5

GMU

L 58-71

−17.5

L 82-91

+15.5

DAV

L 63-68

−10.5

LAS

W 99-80

+32.5

GMU

W 63-57

−23.5

DAY

L 63-68

−10.5

over 19under 14avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Canisius

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-21

30% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L L W L W W L L L W L L W W W L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

L W W L L W L L L W W L W W W L L L W W W L L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-2130%

U O U U U O U U U U U O O O U U U O U U O O U U U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DAY	L 48-88	+25.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	@SBU	L 70-89	+21.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMERC	W 58-55	+1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 17	@HPU	L 50-93	+23.5	L −19.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 21	vsUMES	W 60-57	-3.5	L −0.5	128.5	U 117
Nov 23	vsBING	W 75-66	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 141
Nov 29	vsBUF	L 53-71	+9.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 124
Dec 5	@SPU	L 57-69	+9.5	L −2.5	129.5	U 126
Dec 7	@SIE	L 52-74	+17.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 126
Dec 13	@ME	W 70-43	+6.5	W +33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 16	@URI	L 45-62	+21.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 107
Dec 22	@DUQ	L 59-103	+19.5	L −24.5	143.5	O 162
Jan 2	vsFAIR	W 85-81	+6.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 166
Jan 4	vsSHU	W 82-78	+5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 160
Jan 9	@MAN	W 70-64	+7.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 134
Jan 11	@IONA	L 48-74	+11.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 14	vsNIA	L 54-59	-2.5	L −7.5	126.5	U 113
Jan 17	vsMSM	L 68-78	+3.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 146
Jan 22	@SHU	L 66-69	+10.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 24	@FAIR	L 55-61	+10.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 116
Jan 30	vsMRST	L 86-88	+9.5	W +7.5	129.5	O 174
Feb 1	vsSIE	L 63-78	+8.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 3	@NIA	L 56-65	+2.5	L −6.5	129.5	U 121
Feb 5	@QUIN	L 60-75	+15.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 13	vsIONA	L 63-69	+4.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 132
Feb 15	vsMAN	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 20	@RID	W 72-66	+1.5	W +7.5	131.5	O 138
Feb 22	@MSM	L 47-68	+7.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 27	vsMRMK	W 67-62	+8.5	W +13.5	129.5	U 129
Mar 1	vsQUIN	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−14.5

SBU

L 70-89

+2.5

MERC

W 58-55

+4.5

HPU

L 50-93

−19.5

UMES

W 60-57

−0.5

BING

W 75-66

+6.5

BUF

L 53-71

−8.5

SPU

L 57-69

−2.5

SIE

L 52-74

−4.5

W 70-43

+33.5

URI

L 45-62

+4.5

DUQ

L 59-103

−24.5

FAIR

W 85-81

+10.5

SHU

W 82-78

+9.5

MAN

W 70-64

+13.5

IONA

L 48-74

−14.5

NIA

L 54-59

−7.5

MSM

L 68-78

−6.5

SHU

L 66-69

+7.5

FAIR

L 55-61

+4.5

MRST

L 86-88

+7.5

SIE

L 63-78

−6.5

NIA

L 56-65

−6.5

QUIN

L 60-75

+0.5

IONA

L 63-69

−1.5

MAN

L 65-69

−2.5

RID

W 72-66

+7.5

MSM

L 47-68

−13.5

MRMK

W 67-62

+13.5

QUIN

L 63-67

+3.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−6.5

SBU

L 70-89

+22.5

MERC

W 58-55

−22.5

HPU

L 50-93

−9.5

UMES

W 60-57

−11.5

BING

W 75-66

+11.5

BUF

L 53-71

−15.5

SPU

L 57-69

−3.5

SIE

L 52-74

−5.5

W 70-43

−14.5

URI

L 45-62

−31.5

DUQ

L 59-103

+18.5

FAIR

W 85-81

+25.5

SHU

W 82-78

+18.5

MAN

W 70-64

−11.5

IONA

L 48-74

−19.5

NIA

L 54-59

−13.5

MSM

L 68-78

+10.5

SHU

L 66-69

−10.5

FAIR

L 55-61

−25.5

MRST

L 86-88

+44.5

SIE

L 63-78

+5.5

NIA

L 56-65

−8.5

QUIN

L 60-75

−6.5

IONA

L 63-69

−5.5

MAN

L 65-69

−8.5

RID

W 72-66

+6.5

MSM

L 47-68

−22.5

MRMK

W 67-62

−0.5

QUIN

L 63-67

−8.5

over 9under 21avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St Bonaventure has the better starters

Position by position: St Bonaventure 2, Canisius 0, even 3

St BonaventureBetterCanisius

G A. Fulton TR10.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

SBUBig

G V. Sigona TR7.5 pts · 1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 22

G I. Ermakov2.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Wilson TR4.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18

F R. Kalambay TR4.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

No call

G D. Winters TR1.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F J. Grahovac4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

SBUSmall

F P. Ryan TR6.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 7

F M. Blackwood TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.2 ast Score 22

Even

F C. Efinda TR4.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

St BonaventureBetterCanisius

SBU offense169th of 366 · -5.2

SBUBig

CAN defense321st of 366 · -8.3

SBU defense131st of 366 · -2.4

SBUBig

CAN offense358th of 366 · -14.0

Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players

SBUBig

Backcourt-3.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.4 · 3 players

SBUSmall

Frontcourt-4.4 · 2 players

Bench-0.6 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.4 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestSBU betterCAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

St Bonaventure

Guards

A. Fulton29 min · TRI. Ermakov10 minA. Lonati8 minJ. DeRose1 minR. HeathNewZ. PhilipkoskiNew

Forwards

R. Kalambay21 min · TRJ. Grahovac18 minM. Blackwood12 min · TRJ. IkpotokinNewC. BlankenbergNew

Centers

B. BillNewC. DialloNew

Canisius

Guards

V. Sigona20 min · TRM. Wilson13 min · TRD. Winters6 min · TRT. Augustine2 minC. FrancisNewW. FowlerNew

Forwards

P. Ryan23 min · TRC. Efinda15 min · TRN. Deer3 min · TRN. FoutsNewW. TaylorNewA. RiakNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SBU76.2 #138

CAN62.2 #361

Points per possession

SBU1.12 #104

CAN0.96 #349

Pace (possessions)

SBU68.0 #228

CAN64.6 #353

Shooting

Effective FG%

SBU52.4 #129

CAN46.3 #348

3-point %

SBU37.4 #22

CAN33.3 #213

3-point attempt rate

SBU31.3 #335

CAN39.5 #182

Free throw rate

SBU30.0 #310

CAN31.4 #271

Possessions

Turnover rate

SBU16.8 #189

CAN19.6 #341

Offensive rebound rate

SBU34.5 #60

CAN29.3 #226

Assists per game

SBU15.4 #73

CAN11.9 #293

Defense

Points allowed

SBU75.4 #201

CAN71.4 #87

Points allowed per possession

SBU1.11 #245

CAN1.10 #228

Opponent effective FG%

SBU53.3 #278

CAN52.2 #225

Opponent 3-point %

SBU36.0 #299

CAN33.0 #124

Turnovers forced

SBU17.1 #144

CAN16.0 #222

Defensive rebound rate

SBU70.2 #150

CAN70.2 #151

Steals per game

SBU7.5 #80

CAN4.8 #342

Blocks per game

SBU4.4 #41

CAN2.6 #292

SBU		CAN
Scoring
76.2 #138	Points per game	62.2 #361
1.12 #104	Points per possession	0.96 #349
68.0 #228	Pace (possessions)	64.6 #353
Shooting
52.4 #129	Effective FG%	46.3 #348
37.4 #22	3-point %	33.3 #213
31.3 #335	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #182
30.0 #310	Free throw rate	31.4 #271
Possessions
16.8 #189	Turnover rate	19.6 #341
34.5 #60	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #226
15.4 #73	Assists per game	11.9 #293
Defense
75.4 #201	Points allowed	71.4 #87
1.11 #245	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #228
53.3 #278	Opponent effective FG%	52.2 #225
36.0 #299	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #124
17.1 #144	Turnovers forced	16.0 #222
70.2 #150	Defensive rebound rate	70.2 #151
7.5 #80	Steals per game	4.8 #342
4.4 #41	Blocks per game	2.6 #292

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St Bonaventure

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton63–68
Wvs George Mason63–57
Wvs La Salle99–80
Lvs Davidson63–68
L@ G Washington82–91

A week or more of rest.

Canisius

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Quinnipiac63–67
Wvs Merrimack67–62
L@ Mount St Marys47–68
W@ Rider72–66
Lvs Manhattan65–69

A week or more of rest.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies at Canisius Golden Griffins

What could decide it: SBU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

St Bonaventure

Canisius

St Bonaventure has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

St Bonaventure

Canisius