Northern Illinois Huskies at Dayton Flyers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ETUD Arena · at Dayton

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Illinois and Dayton
NIU	This season	DAY
1-0	Record	0-0
0-1	ATS	0-0
1-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAY 85–62 · win probability DAY 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

NIU 0, DAY 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DAYBig

NIU offense vs DAY defense

Offense 327th of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings

DAYBig

DAY offense vs NIU defense

Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 327th, on the model’s ratings

DAYBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NIU 21.7%, DAY 16.9%. Forced: NIU 16.3%, DAY 21.0%

DAYBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NIU 47.6 and allows 55.6; DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0

DAYSmall

Three-pointers

NIU hits 30.9% and allows 36.3%; DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 45.0% and 41.4% of their shots

DAYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NIU 38.3, DAY 46.1. Allowed: NIU 38.3, DAY 35.5

Context

Schedule so far

NIU has played the 167th-hardest schedule, DAY the 90th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DAYSmall

Home court

DAY at home. This season: DAY 0-0 at home, NIU 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NIU 30.3%, DAY 26.9%. Defensive: NIU 70.0%, DAY 71.2%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NIU plays 69.0 a game (181st fastest), DAY 68.3 (213th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NIU 30%, DAY 31%. Transfers in: NIU 6, DAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DAY -22.9	—
Total	—	146.7	—
Projected score	—	NIU 61.9 · DAY 84.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAY -13.5	—
1H total	68.6	—
1H projected score	NIU 27.6 · DAY 41.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LWLLL	13-15	46%	10-7	—
DAY WLWWL	17-20	46%	8-10	—

Venue/role: NIU away; DAY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUUOU	8-20	29%	7-21
DAY UUOOU	13-24	35%	25-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
DAY	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ BELL	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ MARQ	L70–92WO
Nov 21	@ BGSU	L52–68LU

Dayton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs SIE	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs CIN	L62–74LU
Nov 17	vs CMU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NIU 0–1 DAYDAY leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NIU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 4, 2021-22	NIU 41 @ DAY 79	DAY -17.5	DAY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-20

29% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

W L L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

W W L W W L L L W L L W L L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-2029%

O O U U U U O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@LUC	W 76-59	+13.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	@APSU	L 59-77	+6.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsLIN	L 64-99	-3.5	L −38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@BRAD	L 55-84	+18.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 13	@ELON	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 164
Dec 20	vsCMU	W 74-73	-2.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 31	vsBUF	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 148
Jan 3	@KENT	L 73-77	+16.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsTOL	L 61-75	+7.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 13	@EMU	L 59-77	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 17	vsMASS	W 70-68	+8.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 138
Jan 20	@OHIO	L 77-80	+11.5	W +8.5	154.5	O 157
Jan 24	@BALL	L 53-58	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 111
Jan 27	vsWMU	W 85-65	-1.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 150
Jan 31	@M-OH	L 61-85	+16.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 7	@GAST	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 11	vsBGSU	L 52-68	+7.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 120
Feb 14	@CMU	L 46-88	+4.5	L −37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@BUF	W 72-70	+9.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 142
Feb 21	vsOHIO	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 24	@TOL	L 69-79	+12.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	vsBALL	L 43-79	-1.5	L −37.5	133.5	U 122
Mar 3	vsKENT	L 76-102	+10.5	L −15.5	148.5	O 178
Mar 6	@AKR	L 55-94	+23.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

LUC

W 76-59

+30.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

−38.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−10.5

ELON

L 79-85

+5.5

CMU

W 74-73

−1.5

BUF

L 67-81

−7.5

KENT

L 73-77

+12.5

TOL

L 61-75

−6.5

EMU

L 59-77

−10.5

MASS

W 70-68

+10.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+8.5

BALL

L 53-58

+0.5

WMU

W 85-65

+18.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−7.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−8.5

CMU

L 46-88

−37.5

BUF

W 72-70

+11.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−1.5

TOL

L 69-79

+2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−37.5

KENT

L 76-102

−15.5

AKR

L 55-94

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

LUC

W 76-59

−13.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

+15.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−7.5

ELON

L 79-85

+7.5

CMU

W 74-73

−2.5

BUF

L 67-81

−4.5

KENT

L 73-77

−7.5

TOL

L 61-75

−25.5

EMU

L 59-77

−5.5

MASS

W 70-68

−19.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+2.5

BALL

L 53-58

−30.5

WMU

W 85-65

+3.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−12.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−24.5

CMU

L 46-88

−12.5

BUF

W 72-70

−3.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−8.5

TOL

L 69-79

−2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−11.5

KENT

L 76-102

+29.5

AKR

L 55-94

−6.5

over 8under 20avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Dayton

37 games played

Straight up

25-12

68% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-24

35% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1268%

W W L W W W W L W L W W L W W W W W L L L L W L W W W W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

W L L L W L W W W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L L W W W W W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-2435%

U U U O U U O O O O U O U U U U U U U O O O U O U O U U U U U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAN	W 88-48	-25.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	vsUMBC	W 77-71	-25.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@CIN	L 62-74	+5.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 15	vsBCU	W 91-82	-21.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@MARQ	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsNCCU	W 74-55	-29.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 27	vsGTWN	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsBYU	L 79-83	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 2	vsETSU	W 88-71	-11.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsUVA	L 73-86	+5.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	vsUNF	W 84-61	-30.5	L −7.5	159.5	U 145
Dec 16	vsFSU	W 97-69	-6.5	W +21.5	162.5	O 166
Dec 20	vsLIB	L 61-64	-9.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 125
Dec 31	vsFOR	W 63-56	-16.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 119
Jan 3	@LUC	W 70-68	-7.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 6	vsGW	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 13	@DUQ	W 71-65	-2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 16	vsLUC	W 78-51	-16.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 21	@LAS	L 64-67	-9.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 24	@JOES	L 74-81	-6.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 155
Jan 27	vsURI	L 76-81	-9.5	L −14.5	138.5	O 157
Jan 30	@SLU	L 71-102	+9.5	L −21.5	151.5	O 173
Feb 3	vsSBU	W 72-70	-7.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 6	@VCU	L 73-99	+8.5	L −17.5	147.5	O 172
Feb 15	vsDAV	W 70-59	-5.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 18	@GMU	W 82-67	+2.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 149
Feb 21	vsDUQ	W 78-66	-6.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 144
Feb 24	vsSLU	W 77-62	+3.5	W +18.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 27	@GW	W 68-66	+2.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 134
Mar 3	@RICH	W 65-60	-5.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsVCU	L 62-68	-1.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsSBU	W 68-63	-5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 14	vsSLU	W 70-69	+4.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 139
Mar 15	vsVCU	L 62-70	+3.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 132
Mar 18	@BRAD	W 80-66	-2.5	W +11.5	141.5	O 146
Mar 21	@UNCW	W 80-61	-3.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 141
Mar 25	vsILST	L 55-61	-7.5	L −13.5	140.5	U 116

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

+14.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−19.5

CIN

L 62-74

−6.5

BCU

W 91-82

−12.5

MARQ

W 77-71

+12.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−10.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+3.5

BYU

L 79-83

+5.5

ETSU

W 88-71

+5.5

UVA

L 73-86

−7.5

UNF

W 84-61

−7.5

FSU

W 97-69

+21.5

LIB

L 61-64

−12.5

FOR

W 63-56

−9.5

LUC

W 70-68

−5.5

W 79-72

+4.5

DUQ

W 71-65

+3.5

LUC

W 78-51

+10.5

LAS

L 64-67

−12.5

JOES

L 74-81

−13.5

URI

L 76-81

−14.5

SLU

L 71-102

−21.5

SBU

W 72-70

−5.5

VCU

L 73-99

−17.5

DAV

W 70-59

+5.5

GMU

W 82-67

+17.5

DUQ

W 78-66

+5.5

SLU

W 77-62

+18.5

W 68-66

+4.5

RICH

W 65-60

−0.5

VCU

L 62-68

−7.5

SBU

W 68-63

−0.5

SLU

W 70-69

+5.5

VCU

L 62-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 80-66

+11.5

UNCW

W 80-61

+15.5

ILST

L 55-61

−13.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

−6.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−6.5

CIN

L 62-74

−11.5

BCU

W 91-82

+24.5

MARQ

W 77-71

−3.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−17.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+17.5

BYU

L 79-83

+11.5

ETSU

W 88-71

+18.5

UVA

L 73-86

+11.5

UNF

W 84-61

−14.5

FSU

W 97-69

+3.5

LIB

L 61-64

−17.5

FOR

W 63-56

−20.5

LUC

W 70-68

−2.5

W 79-72

−3.5

DUQ

W 71-65

−16.5

LUC

W 78-51

−12.5

LAS

L 64-67

−6.5

JOES

L 74-81

+15.5

URI

L 76-81

+18.5

SLU

L 71-102

+21.5

SBU

W 72-70

−2.5

VCU

L 73-99

+24.5

DAV

W 70-59

−11.5

GMU

W 82-67

+11.5

DUQ

W 78-66

−4.5

SLU

W 77-62

−18.5

W 68-66

−18.5

RICH

W 65-60

−19.5

VCU

L 62-68

−16.5

SBU

W 68-63

−10.5

SLU

W 70-69

−6.5

VCU

L 62-70

−7.5

BRAD

W 80-66

+4.5

UNCW

W 80-61

+2.5

ILST

L 55-61

−24.5

over 13under 24avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Dayton has the better starters

Position by position: N Illinois 0, Dayton 4, even 1

N IllinoisBetterDayton

G M. Weisbrod TR11 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast Score 27

DAYBig

G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63

G T. Polite15 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 45

DAYSmall

G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78

G U. Buntyn TR12.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 52

Even

F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65

G D. Douglas TR12 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast Score 9

DAYBig

F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

F T. Samuels7 pts · 8.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33

DAYSmall

F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63

N IllinoisBetterDayton

NIU offense327th of 366 · -10.6

DAYBig

DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4

NIU defense327th of 366 · -8.5

DAYBig

DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7

Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players

DAYBig

Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player

DAYBig

Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players

Bench-3.5 · 3 players

DAYBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNIU betterDAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Illinois

Guards

M. Weisbrod31 min · TRT. Polite31 minU. Buntyn31 min · TRD. Douglas30 min · TRN. Carter-SmithNewC. HardrickNew

Forwards

T. Samuels30 minM. Ivanauskas20 min · TRJ. Daugherty10 min · TRA. McBirney-Griffin10 min · TRB. GrossNew

Dayton

Guards

Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min

Forwards

G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NIU66.3 #341

DAY74.1 #193

Points per possession

NIU0.96 #354

DAY1.09 #167

Pace (possessions)

NIU69.0 #181

DAY68.3 #213

Shooting

Effective FG%

NIU47.6 #324

DAY51.6 #168

3-point %

NIU30.9 #323

DAY33.9 #182

3-point attempt rate

NIU45.0 #66

DAY41.4 #142

Free throw rate

NIU38.3 #95

DAY46.1 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

NIU21.7 #360

DAY16.9 #198

Offensive rebound rate

NIU30.3 #187

DAY26.9 #298

Assists per game

NIU11.6 #308

DAY14.2 #134

Defense

Points allowed

NIU78.9 #291

DAY69.3 #50

Points allowed per possession

NIU1.15 #323

DAY1.01 #37

Opponent effective FG%

NIU55.6 #342

DAY51.0 #164

Opponent 3-point %

NIU36.3 #315

DAY35.4 #270

Turnovers forced

NIU16.3 #199

DAY21.0 #11

Defensive rebound rate

NIU70.0 #161

DAY71.2 #94

Steals per game

NIU5.6 #288

DAY8.2 #31

Blocks per game

NIU1.9 #352

DAY3.9 #90

NIU		DAY
Scoring
66.3 #341	Points per game	74.1 #193
0.96 #354	Points per possession	1.09 #167
69.0 #181	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #213
Shooting
47.6 #324	Effective FG%	51.6 #168
30.9 #323	3-point %	33.9 #182
45.0 #66	3-point attempt rate	41.4 #142
38.3 #95	Free throw rate	46.1 #2
Possessions
21.7 #360	Turnover rate	16.9 #198
30.3 #187	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #298
11.6 #308	Assists per game	14.2 #134
Defense
78.9 #291	Points allowed	69.3 #50
1.15 #323	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #37
55.6 #342	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #164
36.3 #315	Opponent 3-point %	35.4 #270
16.3 #199	Turnovers forced	21.0 #11
70.0 #161	Defensive rebound rate	71.2 #94
5.6 #288	Steals per game	8.2 #31
1.9 #352	Blocks per game	3.9 #90

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Illinois

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Akron55–94
Lvs Kent State76–102
Lvs Ball State43–79
L@ Toledo69–79
Lvs Ohio66–74

5 days since their last game.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois St55–61
W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
W@ Bradley80–66
Lvs VCU62–70
Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Dayton Flyers

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Illinois

Dayton

Dayton has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Illinois

Dayton